ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[ColdFusion]

Now the key question is where does it track?

I'm pretty sure thats always the key question.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Also I see a westerly motion as well, I'd guess about 275 at the present moment.

The key is going to simply be how far west it goes before it turns north, the further west it gets clearly the further away from the coast of Florida it'll get and possibly towards the gulf loop....

[cycloneye]

Also I see a westerly motion as well, I'd guess about 275 at the present moment.

The key is going to simply be how far west it goes before it turns north, the further west it gets clearly the further away from the coast of Florida it'll get and possibly towards the gulf loop....

And track over more warm waters.

[canegrl04]

Fay hitting western Florida would be a first.

Not that we have that much data to work with so something new never surprises me.

I can make Linguini and clam sauce with that

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

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Tropical storm Fay
Forecast one
2:30pm pst/5:30pm est
8-15-2008


Winds 45 knots
Pressure 1008 millibars
Movement westward at 12 knots
Location 18.5/68.8

Strong distrabance moving over DR has become a tropical storm...


Recon has found westly winds south of southern DR this afternoon...In which case confirms that this system now has a closed LLC. The cyclone has formed a nice blow up near where the LLC is. The LLC is inland over the DR around 18.5/68.8. The higher mountains of DR and Hati await this system in the inner core should become very broad as it moves over it, so overall tropical storm force winds will increase in size. The system innercore is likely to only have winds by 24 hours of 25-30 knots. But one of the reasons that may keep this a tropical storm is the fact the banding over the southern side; could still have tropical storm force winds. This system is moving fast enough to not produce another Jeanne like event, but it could be quite bad for the DR/Hati.

The distrabance that has been tracked overnight last night north of PR has become better organized throughout today. Earlier today you could clearly see the southern banding forming and wraping into the broader LLC future to its north. This feature I believe made landfall as a tropical storm, reaspm 1# westly winds where reported on the southern coast of the DR as early as 2-3 hours ago. Also 2# the banding and inflow was formed nicely around this area, with overall low clouds showing it to be closed.

Cimss shows that a strong Anticyclone has formed just north of the LLC. So the environment is very favorable for strengthing, but as it is going over DR/Hati, we do not expect any strengthing from the cyclone. In fact it is likely to weaken to a depression with in the next 24 hours. If it moves south of Cuba it kind again find its self in a favorable environment for strengthing, in which case we feel is becoming a little more likely. We will bring to to 75 knots by 96-120 hours. But this could be low if the environment is favorable.

The Gfdl 12z keeps it as a weak system throughout the next 48 hours. It takes it south of Cuba. Then restrengthens it around 72 hours to a hurricane as it is making landfall in western Cuba. So around 84-96 hours it turns north as a trough picks it up. Since it is south of what the models have forecasted, in this trough appears to be coming around the same time frame, it has model support. The LCEM is the eastern model and the GFDL is the western driving the cyclone to near 85 west. Nhc is forecasting landfall near the clip5 model down the middle, but we feel the cmc,UKmet,Gfdl is more likely. In which is where we we forecast it to track.

Forecast
0 45 knots 18.5/68.8
6 35 knots 18.6/69.5
12 35 knots 18.6/70.5
24 35 knots 18.8/73.2
36 45 knots 19.1/75.4 South of Cuba
48 55 knots 19.5/77.5
72 60 knots 20.5/82.4
96 70 knots 24.2/84.4 Gulf
120 75 knots 27.4/85.2

[HURAKAN]

The less time over water, the better for Florida.

[ConvergenceZone]

Also I see a westerly motion as well, I'd guess about 275 at the present moment.

The key is going to simply be how far west it goes before it turns north, the further west it gets clearly the further away from the coast of Florida it'll get and possibly towards the gulf loop....

And track over more warm waters.

Hey cycloneye, did you get any heavy thundestorms over your neck of the woods last night?? Hopefully some much needed rain?

[jaxfladude]

So NE FLA may get some nasty weather for being in the strong side(Northeast/East)) of the system should some model tracks(west cost of FLA) verify...yikes may have to deal with a tornado threat....
Prayers for Hispaniola, and others in this storm's path.......
---------------------
Need to watch closely....
------------------------


How bad is the rainfall so far for Hispaniola????

[HURAKAN]

She pops!

[KWT]

Yep Hurakan, because the heat content is high and the upper conditions are promed for strengthening when it gets the chance...even 24hrs could be enough to get close to hurricane force as the NHC track shows...

In the end the further west this goes, the more powerful it gets.

[HURAKAN]

[txwatcher91]

She pops!

For being over DR a few hours now you sure wouldn't know it. Just imagine what happens when it gets over warm water, if the LLC is intact. That may be why models showing RI.

[cycloneye]

Hey cycloneye, did you get any heavy thundestorms over your neck of the woods last night?? Hopefully some much needed rain?

Good news about the lakes that rise their amounts,as between 2-4 inches fell in Puerto Rico.A few thunderstorms moved thru San Juan in the overnight hours.

[KWT]

Yep Fay is still bursting over DR...truely not a good thing because risk of flash floods will only increase. Also whilst it will weaken overland probably quite a bit the bursting should keep it fairly well intact compared to other past systems.

[LSU2001]

With all the rain we have been getting lately I had three raccoons come by in slicker suits and in a pirogue. I don't really worry though until they fire up the mud boat.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Man im having the hardest time believing that the Center is not somewhere in that WHITE I see here..I know..I know...Broken Record..

[greels]

artist,

I am involved in Disaster Management here where I live in the Turks & Caicos. I had prior experience in DM back in the States where I hail from (New England) and now with a different flair, this being the Caribbean where we live.

At a recent seminar I attended which was hosted by USAID, the subject of animal behavior prior to a weather event (more specifically disasters in this instance)was discussed at length.....it made mention (of course) of the tsunami several years back and also, on patterns of animal behavior which have been observed prior to earthquakes. It is said the animals' behavior is a type of "sixth sense" which we humans have somehow lost.

There are currently some studies underway on animal behavior in these types of situations, but nothing is "set-in-stone". So, you are definately on to something....

The threat to us here in the T&C is now over (for this storm at least) and I wish everyone to be safe and well in the path of Fay.

[Vortex]

my concern for the peninsula would be a cleo type track feeding off the extremely high oceanic heat content just south of cuba then a north turn up the spine..


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Cleo_1964_track.png

[Jinkers]

My cats were clingy today, but we had a bad thunderstorm today too-lol