ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Cape Verde]

I hope residents of northern Mexico and SE Texas are taking this storm very serious. There is no reason in my opinion for Dolly to be any less than a cat 2 at landfall...Nearly ideal conditions will present themselves in the BOC/Southern gulf and all residents in the forecasted projected impact zone need to begin to prepare for a major hurricane...

Agreed and glad you brought it up. Let me add that residents within the CONE should take warning. Don't concentrate on the line!

Even the cone is likely to change in the next couple of days. I don't think anyone here is taking it lightly. We keep crashing the board.

[Nederlander]

I am here on the upper texas coast (bmt/pt arthur) , but with the forecasts as they stand now, I dont think we are going to have to worry... we do need some rain though... Everything seems to suggest a tx/mexico border hit, even though my gut tells me middle tx coast....

[Air Force Met]

Recon showing that the MLC is not lined up with the LLC yet. The MLC is still NE of the LLC.

I'm taking back a lollipop.

[jabman98]

I'm in Houston and did a review of our hurricane prep today. Found out some of our water leaked - stupid, cheap plastic containers. So I'll need to get a few more gallons. And some batteries. Otherwise, I think we're in good shape. Hope we don't need to use any of it.

Just hoping for some nice rain out of the system. Things are pretty dry here. Hoping it hits in an unpopulated area and there is minimal damage.

[gatorcane]

Latest. Dolly is becoming very menacing and quickly folks:

[dwg71]

llc seems to be right on NHC track, i dont see anything to warrant any major shifts in forecast track.

[Jagno]

Nederland; Even with a mid coast TX hit you will definitely get more than you are bargaining for with this 300 mile wide system. You are also on the worst side of the system.

[Smurfwicked]

I am here on the upper texas coast (bmt/pt arthur) , but with the forecasts as they stand now, I dont think we are going to have to worry... we do need some rain though... Everything seems to suggest a tx/mexico border hit, even though my gut tells me middle tx coast....

I am in the Beaumont area too, and although I'm looking at middle tx coast too, that is not going to stop me from going to wal-mart tonite and getting some bottled water and filling up my gas tank.

[gatorcane]

deep convection continues to fire over the extremely warm NW Caribbean. Dolly continues to grow in size and intensity based on SAT images.

[Derek Ortt]

Here is why the system is still disorganized

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

conditions not that favorable. We have 10-15KT of mid level shear cutting right through his. Therefore, despite the building anti-cyclone, this should not go bonkers in the Caribbean.

The GOM... now thats another story!

[deltadog03]

Ok, did NHC just xtrap that 8pm coord. or has Recon sent a VDM with that coord? Also, like AFM said, the LLC and MLC are not quite stacked, but are getting fairly close. LLC has migrated that way today. Surely can not deny that.

[Air Force Met]

llc seems to be right on NHC track, i dont see anything to warrant any major shifts in forecast track.

Don't kid yourself. The MLC is very vigorous and the LLC seems sorta loose and broad. I don't foresee a major track change...but if things work like they normally do...the LLC should jump under the MLC later tonight. The broad LLC is the first signs of that. Winds are less than 15 kts all the way up to 20/85...which is the approx. location of the MLC.

Won't take much.

[HouTXmetro]

I am here on the upper texas coast (bmt/pt arthur) , but with the forecasts as they stand now, I dont think we are going to have to worry... we do need some rain though... Everything seems to suggest a tx/mexico border hit, even though my gut tells me middle tx coast....

Iv'e learned not to challenge the NHC, they usually get it right 99% of the time. We are not even in the cone so I wouldn't worry at the present. Maybe an outerband or two.

[Javlin]

Ok, did NHC just xtrap that 8pm coord. or has Recon sent a VDM with that coord? Also, like AFM said, the LLC and MLC are not quite stacked, but are getting fairly close. LLC has migrated that way today. Surely can not deny that.

I was wondering the same thing because some of the readings at 85.5 are a little higher than some other areas and to add they are still sampling as we type.I think @11 will be the real advisory.

Not the lowest I think but one of them Steve

225900 1906N 08407W 6148 04225 0074 +040 +040 211026 029 036 014 00

[Steve]

>>Ok, did NHC just xtrap that 8pm coord. or has Recon sent a VDM with that coord?

Didn't see a VDM. And the lower pressure was 19.6 if I'm not mistaken (might have been 19.06). Looks like a best guess kind of thing.

Steve

[curtadams]

conditions not that favorable. We have 10-15KT of mid level shear cutting right through his. Therefore, despite the building anti-cyclone, this should not go bonkers in the Caribbean.

10-15 mid shear would be almost hostile. That's at least as bad as 20-30 upper shear. How much of that is Dolly's own doing, though? I note the strongest shear is in an arc around her. Mid-shear would explain the separation of LLC and MLC, though.

[Sanibel]

Better round form closer to the burst. Yucatan transit should take it down and weaken it. It all depends on what the GOM allows it to do and track after that.

[Ivanhater]

I have been looking and looking at the loops for a while and I feel it is obvious the old center is fading and the MLC is becoming dominant, especially with the Convection burst shooting north throughout the past couple of hours..the old centers track across land should seal the deal imo...Mid Texas coast is my best guess right now...

[Cape Verde]

Iv'e learned not to challenge the NHC, they usually get it right 99% of the time. We are not even in the cone so I wouldn't worry at the present. Maybe an outerband or two.

Oh come on. When they say they don't know, at least believe them then. Rita was supposed to be a Brownsville hit at one point according to them, and they scared the crap out of me by making it a Category 5 hit in Matagorda Bay coming up the Grand Parkway.

It was a Sabine Pass hit two days later.

I believe the NHC with a 12 hour forecast, but not much more than that unless I can see all the models line up and understand the various steering mechanisms.

It's not their fault. They're the best. But 99%? The track record doesn't reflect that. Even they don't begin to claim that.

[Nederlander]

I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel