ATL: IKE Discussion

[gtalum]

No possibility of another Charley scenerio?

With tropical systems, I think Ike proves you should never say "no possibility".

That said, it seems extremely unlikely that Ike will do what Charley did.

What kind of weather could we expect here if it stays 175 miles off our coast you think?

I'm thinking clouds, some squally winds, a little rain, and big surf. No big deal.

[Sanibel]

My Atlas has a little town right out on the end of that point called "Los Angeles" (Cuba).

[El Nino]

Looks very healthy on Rainbow Loop. I wouldn't be surprised if RECON reports falling pressure and 120 kts+

[Timaeus]

"Can anyone name any examples of hurricanes that have had their inner cores messed up by land but were then able to regain their "former glory" once back over water? I just keep thinking of examples where hurricanes didn't (David, Isidore, Georges, Wilma). It seems almost easier for a storm to start from scratch than to be working from a point where the inner core has been gorged by land (i.e. if you were to send two blobs of convection over the Gulf for three days under perfect atmospheric conditions, which one would be stronger at landfall?)"


HURRICANE GUSTAV

Haiti ripped him to shreds and he became a very strong Cat 4 just two days later.

There are many other examples of this.

A hurricane that gets ripped up by mountains or land has a much better chance of becoming a strong hurricane again than a normal tropical disturbance.

[KWT]

Yeah Sanibel thats just to the north of Banes, both will get a full brunt of the eyewall sadly and I think we should be fully expecting cat-2/3 condtions there in that western eyewall, got a bad feeling there will be a lot of damage when all is done there.

[stormy1970al]

The other thing that the models and wxman57 has been mentioning is the is the fact that Ike will loosen up and expand quite a lot, this will likely end up as a pretty chunky hurricane and thus a large area will need to watch the system.

Whilst it'll take a while to regain its strength, with Ike likely being a big hurricane when it does regain its strength somewhat its going to be even more dangerous I fear.

I highly doubt Frederic 1979 had much of an inner core, as wxman57 system stated Wilma did get pretty beaten up over the Yucatan.

Hurricane Frederic originated from an area of disturbed weather in the far eastern Atlantic in late August 1979. By September 1st, Frederic was upgraded to a minimal hurricane about 650-miles east of the Lesser Antilles, while moving west at 20-mph. Over the next six days - Frederic traveled over the islands of the northern Caribbean weakening to a tropical depression by September 6. However, as the weak depression emerged off the western tip of Cuba, it rapidly intensified. By September 11, winds in Frederic were up to 85-mph, while the storm was moving northwest - toward the central Gulf coast.

By 5:00 am the following morning (September 12) warnings were issued from Panama City, Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana. Frederic now had winds of 130-mph, central pressure in the hurricane had fallen to 27.99 in (948 mb). By 5:00 pm that same day, Frederic was located 80-miles south of Mobile, Alabama, moving north at 15-mph. Like several other severe hurricanes Frederic would landfall in darkness - adding to evacuation and preparedness problems.

Hurricane Frederic was twice the size of Hurricane Camille in 1969, although far less intense. Hurricane force winds covered a vast area in Frederic. At 10:00 pm (CDT) on September 12, 1979, Hurricane Frederic made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama. Frederic hammered southern Alabama with the severest hurricane conditions in modern times.
from website http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hu ... ederic.htm

[Sabanic]

With concensus of models seemingly coming together looks like LA/TX will be Ikes target, and the Central-Eastern GOM coastal areas may be able to start relaxing.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[KWT]

Ike once again looking pretty classic, land interaction will Cuba will soon start to limit the southern quadrants but for now it looks very impressive!

Anyway looks like Ike will be spending a good 24-36hrs over land, expect Ike to be a TS when it emerges but after that its got at least 72hrs of prime time reorganisation and strengthening...

[ConvergenceZone]

Ike once again looking pretty classic, land interaction will Cuba will soon start to limit the southern quadrants but for now it looks very impressive!

Anyway looks like Ike will be spending a good 24-36hrs over land, expect Ike to be a TS when it emerges but after that its got at least 72hrs of prime time reorganisation and strengthening...

Yep, lots of time for reorganization....I'd say if it emerges as a strong tropical storm, then a cat 3 at landfall is possible, but if it's just a weak tropical storm or depression, then a cat 2 would be more likely...

[Frank2]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this possibility, but, it is possible that Ike might just continue due westward and cross Cuba on the bias...

[HURAKAN]

[cape_escape]

No possibility of another Charley scenerio?

What kind of weather could we expect here if it stays 175 miles off our coast you think?

I doubt, with this model consensus, that Ike will turn towards SW Florida. Ike is sort of like Katrina where the original track kept getting pushed west by an ever-expanding High over the Gulf. Or maybe even Rita if the High holds strong enough. Best to wait until it re-emerges from Cuba.

If we get a 175 mile pass to the SW it should be like Dennis that passed at the same distance. Maybe 30-45mph winds at the beach. Ike has a good east rainy side so we should get some rains too.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Thank you Sanibel, I really appreciate your input!

[HurricaneRobert]

Maybe Mean Jeanne?



It was only a category 1, so I can't think of any majors that have done well soon after the islands.

Dennis? For some reason Cuba took a lot more from Gustav.

[ronjon]

Lots of unknowns still with the long term track. I would bet that we'll see major changes from the 5 day track from where it is today. What we have good confidence in is that Ike will weaken considerably over Cuba and then track into the SE GOM where it will slow down to a crawl for several days possibly strengthening back to a major. Being that were starting to get toward mid-Sept by the end of next week I would place a bet on some type of short wave picking it up. Now, the question is where will Ike be in the GOM when that happens?

[KWT]

Yep ConvergenceZone, its not easy to call as sometimes they don't really recover, for example Isadore only slightly recovered before hitting LA and it spent a very very long time overland and had very condusive conditions in the gulf.

However in this case I suspect it will have enough tidme to really strengthen well, cat-2/3 looking the best option right now IMO...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this possibility, but, it is possible that Ike might just continue due westward and cross Cuba on the bias...

Well, that could certainly throw some new players into the ballgame! Any thoughts as to how that may change things up?

I know that at this point, it would be totally hypothetical and speculative but, I am interested to hear your thoughts!

Thanks,
~Nikki~

[wxman57]

"Can anyone name any examples of hurricanes that have had their inner cores messed up by land but were then able to regain their "former glory" once back over water? I just keep thinking of examples where hurricanes didn't (David, Isidore, Georges, Wilma). It seems almost easier for a storm to start from scratch than to be working from a point where the inner core has been gorged by land (i.e. if you were to send two blobs of convection over the Gulf for three days under perfect atmospheric conditions, which one would be stronger at landfall?)"


HURRICANE GUSTAV

Haiti ripped him to shreds and he became a very strong Cat 4 just two days later.

There are many other examples of this.

A hurricane that gets ripped up by mountains or land has a much better chance of becoming a strong hurricane again than a normal tropical disturbance.

Gustav was over Cuba only about 6 hours. Ike will be over land 36 hours. Big difference. More like Isidore in 2002.

[wxman57]

Yep ConvergenceZone, its not easy to call as sometimes they don't really recover, for example Isadore only slightly recovered before hitting LA and it spent a very very long time overland and had very condusive conditions in the gulf.

However in this case I suspect it will have enough tidme to really strengthen well, cat-2/3 looking the best option right now IMO...

I do have Ike as a Cat 2/3 in 5 days, but it may take a couple days to regain hurricane strength after crossing Cuba. And of course, I assume that Ike follows the forecast track hitting Cuba late tonight and moving back over water mid morning Tuesday.

[Wthrman13]

"Can anyone name any examples of hurricanes that have had their inner cores messed up by land but were then able to regain their "former glory" once back over water? I just keep thinking of examples where hurricanes didn't (David, Isidore, Georges, Wilma). It seems almost easier for a storm to start from scratch than to be working from a point where the inner core has been gorged by land (i.e. if you were to send two blobs of convection over the Gulf for three days under perfect atmospheric conditions, which one would be stronger at landfall?)"


HURRICANE GUSTAV

Haiti ripped him to shreds and he became a very strong Cat 4 just two days later.

There are many other examples of this.

A hurricane that gets ripped up by mountains or land has a much better chance of becoming a strong hurricane again than a normal tropical disturbance.

Gustav was over Cuba only about 6 hours. Ike will be over land 36 hours. Big difference. More like Isidore in 2002.

I think he was talking about Gustav when it was over Haiti, not Cuba. Regardless, I expect Cuba to knock Ike down at least a few categories, and maybe all the way to TS. Afterwards, I expect restrengthening in the Gulf, probably back up to at least Cat 3 status, as the UL environment in the models looks much better for Ike than it did for Gustav.

[TampaFl]

2:00pm position: