ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Looks like Ike's taken a little wobble to the WNW in the last hour or so which obviously may make a difference to exactly where Ike makes landfall. Just hope that continues as it may spare Banes from the eyewall...

wxman57, yep going to take a very long hike over Cuba, of course as you say small wobbles may mean less time over land who knows!

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the Steering flow 200 to 700hpa from the Cimss site...

Looks like the Western side of the ridge is breaking down, and the it is retreating to the East or more towards the Central Atlantic.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

[wxman57]

One other interesting note. I'm getting emails that indicate Ike's forming an outer eyewall (Microwave imagery shows this) and may be about to go through an ERC. That, combined with land interaction could expand the wind field significantly. It'll be an interesting next 48 hours for Ike.

[amawea]

Ronjon, Your analysis is very good. You know why? Because it's right down the line with my thinking.

No, I feel you are pretty well on to what might happen. The might is there because it's still so far out.

Have a good hurricane day!

[caneman]

Looking at the Steering flow 200 to 700hpa from the Cimss site...

Looks like the Western side of the ridge is breaking down, and the it is retreating to the East or more towards the Central Atlantic.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

Well. we see it here. Last 2 days high pressure was large and in charge. Extremely hot and very blue skies with not a cloud to be found. It is getting very cloudy here now and not nearly as hot

[KWT]

Could a much larger system wxman57 upon landfall mean the core takes a little longer to weaken or won't it make no differnece?

Microwave imagery does indeed suggest the western eyewall is really weakening and an outer band is present.

[wxman57]

Looking at the Steering flow 200 to 700hpa from the Cimss site...

Looks like the Western side of the ridge is breaking down, and the it is retreating to the East or more towards the Central Atlantic.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

http://gifsun.org/animations/unknown/1c ... 4a66ac.gif

That's Ike's first recurve opportunity that most models predict it'll miss (except HWRF at 06Z). But that weakness won't be around long, probably not long enough for Ike to reach before the next ridge blocks it.

[TampaFl]

[Canelaw99]

Never mind....wxman answered it already.....

[Dave C]

The Cuban radar really shows the double eyewall well. The outer band is quite large

[Frank2]

TreasureIslandFLGal,

No response from anyone else here, but, it's is possible it might cross the isthmus and into the Caribbean, if it stayed on it's present course - the UK model does suggest that track...

[KatDaddy]

Man IKE is wrapped up now. If you look at VIS timelapse from GHCC you can see the mini-vortices spinning around the eye. The last time I saw this was with Isabel. I dont want IKE at all but would not wish him on anyone.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

TreasureIslandFLGal,

No response from anyone else here, but, it's is possible it might cross the isthmus and into the Caribbean, if it stayed on it's present course - the UK model does suggest that track...

Any thoughts as to how that track may affect Ike's future path? Possibly makes him miss anything that would turn him Northerly and runs him into the Yucatan or what?

You've gotten me curious!

~Nikki~

[Frank2]

No, but, hopefully someone else here does...

I'd say that it has a fair chance of continuing due west across Cuba and into the Caribbean - that would change things a bit...

For example, Jim Cantore would have to be sent to Cancun instead of Key West...

I give those folks credit - they sure do travel a lot...

LOL

[KWT]

Well the UKMO overdoes ridges so I wouldn't read too much into the set-up it suggests unless other models back it up in a set-up where there are troughs digging down and stuff like that.

KatDaddy, yep I can see that as well, very impressive looking hurricane thats for sure, I really do think this probably is a cat-4 still, but if a EWRC is starting then things do get interesting.

[GeneratorPower]

Looking at the latest visible images in a loop, I'm almost certain I'm seeing a N of W motion in Ike right now.

[cpdaman]

wxman would you agree that given good upper level conditons a major hurricane would have a better chance to sustain itself heading into central or SE texas because the waters seem to have high TCHP compared with the LA coast or the ms/al/fla panhandle .

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8250at.jpg

[KWT]

Frank, even if it reaches the Caribbean there is no way this reaches Yucatan with the ridge breaking down on its western side lioke it is right now, its jsut a question of what degree it goes to the WNW/NW/NNW in the gulf, thats the big question for the future!

[Windtalker1]

Looking at the latest visible images in a loop, I'm almost certain I'm seeing a N of W motion in Ike right now.

It's called a Wobble.

[KWT]

Looking at the latest visible images in a loop, I'm almost certain I'm seeing a N of W motion in Ike right now.

Well its does seem like its taken a fairly decent wobble to the WNW, at this stage for Cuba these sorts of wobbles do make a very big difference but I doubt this wobble lasts long.