ATL: IKE Discussion

[El Nino]

Looking at the latest visible images in a loop, I'm almost certain I'm seeing a N of W motion in Ike right now.

It's called a Wobble.

Any wobble will make a big difference now.
I agree, there's a slight movement to the north.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Frank, even if it reaches the Caribbean there is no way this reaches Yucatan with the ridge breaking down on its western side lioke it is right now, its jsut a question of what degree it goes to the WNW/NW/NNW in the gulf, thats the big question for the future!

No worries, we were just entertaining the hypotheticals based on the UKMO. Getting a little anxious you know!

Tom Petty was right, the waiting is the hardest part!

~Nikki~

[cpdaman]

Looking at the Steering flow 200 to 700hpa from the Cimss site...

Looks like the Western side of the ridge is breaking down, and the it is retreating to the East or more towards the Central Atlantic.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

http://gifsun.org/animations/unknown/1c ... 4a66ac.gif

That's Ike's first recurve opportunity that most models predict it'll miss (except HWRF at 06Z). But that weakness won't be around long, probably not long enough for Ike to reach before the next ridge blocks it.

wxman would you have any reason to question those models, any reason to suspect they under forecast the trough

[cycloneye]

2:25 EDT:

[gatorcane]

Definite WNW wobble...

Hope that doesn't continue

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

I'm not wxman57 its just that every other model suggests it'll miss the trough and so the HWRF is rather on its own, an outlier in other words.

El Nino, yep wobbles matter for Cuba now in a big way, also any north/south wobbles may mean slightly less or more time overland.

[Sanibel]

First bump of the NAM turn?


I was trying to show people that outer eyewall before over Inagua.

[chris_fit]

I'm not wxman57 its just that every other model suggests it'll miss the trough and so the HWRF is rather on its own, an outlier in other words.

El Nino, yep wobbles matter for Cuba now in a big way, also any north/south wobbles may mean slightly less or more time overland.

Not -removed- or any of the sort but... Many "outliers" have been correct, including a few even with IKE a few days ago....

IMO, I think Eastern TX.

[Windtalker1]

Definite WNW wobble...

Hope that doesn't continue

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Can it slide along the North coast of Cuba without going inland???

[Canelaw99]

First bump of the NAM turn?

Link to the NAM? Haven't seen it today....thanks Sanibel

[HURAKAN]

Typhoon Tip, match this!!!

[Windtalker1]

Definite WNW wobble...

Hope that doesn't continue

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Can it slide along the North coast of Cuba without going inland???

[Aric Dunn]

although there was a western wind maxima . there was none in the inbound so the ERC is still in its beginning stages it actually shows up well on the cuban radar.

and unless there is a slight bend to the right the erc will not have enough time to complete before landfall..

[Frank2]

Still due west, Gatorcane, per the Cuban radar...

Those wobbles can really hobble a person - there must have been 100 pages on Gustav's wobbles before it crossed Cuba!!!

It's going east - no - it's going west - no - it's going northeast - no...

LOL

[Aric Dunn]

Definite WNW wobble...

Hope that doesn't continue

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Can it slide along the North coast of Cuba without going inland???

of course that is very possible and it is shared by the nogaps which just rides the coast

[vaffie]

Definite WNW wobble...

Hope that doesn't continue

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Can it slide along the North coast of Cuba without going inland???

Certainly. Will it? No one knows. Storms can interact bizarrely with islands--see how Gustav went into Jamaica and then reformed and walked around it. It's always interesting to watch how they maneuver through and around land.

[jinftl]

Woult this expanded wind field be captured in the tropical storm win probability radii...Miami still in the 40% range..or is this above and beyond the NHC forecast? How expansive of wind field are you seeing?

One other interesting note. I'm getting emails that indicate Ike's forming an outer eyewall (Microwave imagery shows this) and may be about to go through an ERC. That, combined with land interaction could expand the wind field significantly. It'll be an interesting next 48 hours for Ike.

[Cyclenall]

How much strength Ike loses over Cuba prediction challenge is now open:

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=103078

[Aric Dunn]

How much strength Ike loses over Cuba prediction challenge is now open:

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=103078

unfortunately .. there is no accurate prediction anyone can do using any sound meteorological methods to predict the ERC plus the land interaction, so it should say

How much strength Ike loses over Cuba "guess" Challenge is now open

[vaffie]

Ike back up to a Dvorak of 6.0/6.0

07/1145 UTC 21.0N 72.8W T6.0/6.0 IKE -- Atlantic Ocean