ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

Sandy,if you can.put the 2 PM Advisory position at the google graphic,with the VDM positions to follow the track.

[Sanibel]

They deleted the NAM link from the models thread on page 92-93. It had Ike taking a big WNW turn in front of Cuba and staying offshore but then going into the Gulf on the same general track as NHC.

[jasons2k]

I don't think the HWRF scenario will play-out. I just don't see the trough picking-it up.

By late week, the ridge is still in control and the next incoming trough is positivlely-tilted. I just don't see this one going north into LA unfortunately.

The GFS showing this deep of a storm on a low-res model is downright scary. It looks like Carla II.

My inital call is Corpus to Sabine Pass.

Yes, I live in Texas. No, I don't want it.

[Canelaw99]

Gotcha...problem there would be that it wouldn't weaken much, if at all, because it would remain over water...good for Cuba not taking a direct hit, but not good keeping the storm's intensity up...

[Aric Dunn]

They deleted the NAM link from the models thread on page 92-93. It had Ike taking a big WNW turn in front of Cuba and staying offshore but then going into the Gulf on the same general track as NHC.

and why would they delete the link ....

the nam normally sux but i do recall the day with gustav the NHC using it ..

[Cyclenall]

Just in case people missed it on the last page:

How much strength Ike loses over Cuba prediction challenge is now open:

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=103078

[Vortex]

A definite wnw wobble?...NAM the last 24-30 has performed very well and the last 3 runs has indicated Ike will parallel the cuban coast

[Aric Dunn]

I don't think the HWRF scenario will play-out. I just don't see the trough picking-it up.

By late week, the ridge is still in control and the next incoming trough is positivlely-tilted. I just don't see this one going north into LA unfortunately.

The GFS showing this deep of a storm on a low-res model is downright scary. It looks like Carla II.

My inital call is Corpus to Sabine Pass.

Yes, I live in Texas. No, I don't want it.

well the trough does not have to pick it up! if you look at the HWRF it does not pick it up , it just weakens the ridge enough to allow a nw nnw motion and moves it really slow towards the end of the run also the nogaps just came in line with the hwrf. also most of the models do not have the new synoptic info from the noaa plane 00z runs should show a little more consensus

[jinftl]

that would be more of a keys event....hurricane conditions

They deleted the NAM link from the models thread on page 92-93. It had Ike taking a big WNW turn in front of Cuba and staying offshore but then going into the Gulf on the same general track as NHC.

and why would they delete the link ....

the nam normally sux but i do recall the day with gustav the NHC using it ..

[Wx_Warrior]

New 12z EURO pushes Ike west into South Texas.

[feederband]

I should wish that wobble would wobble back like soon..

[jinftl]

if track to get there is pretty much west with some wnw bumps...i.e., current track pretty much being uninterrupted....i buy that scenario...would reflect strong ridge and no trough

New 12z EURO pushes Ike west into South Texas.

[Sanibel]

Surface eye is still on NHC track and into Cuba...

[cheezyWXguy]

Dang thats quite a "wobble." Another thing I noticed is that I think Ike is about to go thru a erc. Check out visible. During the loop you can see the cdo rapidly expand, and hints at an outer eyewall seem to be appearing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[Myersgirl]

mabey the wnw wobble was due to eyewall replacement but we will see how Ike hits the next plot, it won't in current movement in my opinion

[cape_escape]

I should wish that wobble would wobble back like soon..

I was thinking the same thing! To my untrained eyes, it looks pretty far North of the forecast point http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html.

[Aric Dunn]

Also please EVER REMEMBER THIS SO THAT WE DO NOT HAVE 200 POST ABOUT THE WOBBLES... SO LISTEN VERY CLOSELY!! IF A ERC IS STARTING THE EYE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE INNER EDGE OF THE LARGER NEW EYE, WHICH WOULD GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF CHANGES IN DIRECTION. MY BEST ADVISE THAT IS PRETTY SIMPLE IS IF YOUR LOOKING AT A LOOP PUT YOUR FINGER OVER THE CENTER AND LOOK AT THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.

THANK YOU

[cpdaman]

this thing could go wnw and it would still go right into cuba

in fact that appears to be what donsoutherland is forecasting in the tropical analysis section

although in fairness it may be just borderline wnw

[Vortex]

1845UTC Hi-res Vis continues wnw wobble

[feederband]

Also please EVER REMEMBER THIS SO THAT WE DO NOT HAVE 200 POST ABOUT THE WOBBLES... SO LISTEN VERY CLOSELY!! IF A ERC IS STARTING THE EYE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE INNER EDGE OF THE LARGER NEW EYE, WHICH WOULD GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF CHANGES IN DIRECTION. MY BEST ADVISE THAT IS PRETTY SIMPLE IS IF YOUR LOOKING AT A LOOP PUT YOUR FINGER OVER THE CENTER AND LOOK AT THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.

THANK YOU

There must be a trick to it because I get the same thing..