ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

2.5 mb/ 12 hr = EI

Very cold cloud top

3mb/hr is EI

ok, so this drop doesnt qualify for explosive or rapid

[zaqxsw75050]

Well... anyway, the cold cloud top make it looks like one of those W. Pac storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There appears to be small warm spot in the middle of the black. Interesting, and it is near where the nhc placed the center.

[KWT]

Wow so much for being on the way out like some said, that explosive heat content has done it again I see...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow so much for being on the way out like some said, that explosive heat content has done it again I see...

Jamaica should hold it down intil it moves away from it. If it can get far enough south of it, it should not loss much strength. We will have to see how far south it gets.

[Sihara]

3mb/hr is EI

Okay, thanks, that clarifies it. So for it to have qualified for EI, it would have had to drop 18mb from 11pm to 5 this morning, right? Still, it did drop 10mb in the same time period, if recon did find 989. That would be a prodigious drop, wouldn't it.

And the 5-day on wunderground really looked awful, a major striking Louisiana. But depending on how far south this goes, there's hope that could change.

[Texashawk]

Recon just reported 60+ MPH winds

[Sihara]

So, the winds have picked up accordingly. B/c at around 4:30am, tv had something about FL winds of only 47, which doesn't seem to support a TS. sorry, didn't get the details it was just too early.

[deltadog03]

This thing has exploded.

[mutley]

Recon just reported 60+ MPH winds

Gustav lives! And going south of Jamiaca?

[KWT]

Indeed Jamaica may delay any strengthening from happening we have to see but the presentation is now impressing me, deep explosive convection usually is the mark of a system that could bomb.

[Derek Ortt]

the 55KT winds are likely bogus. FL winds underneath it are only in the 30KT range

[Texashawk]

the 55KT winds are likely bogus. FL winds underneath it are only in the 30KT range

Perhaps, but that's still a mighty impressive presentation upgrade/pressure drop in the last 4-6 hrs

[KWT]

Very true Derek, I'd have thought the winds will catch up sooner rather then later, I've noticed with these sorts of explosive systems sometimes it take a while for winds to ramp up as much as the pressure drops.

[Derek Ortt]

they've caught up. 67KT flight level

[Sabanic]

Well it's nice to wake up this AM and see that Gus is something we most likely will not have to deal with. I'll be praying for those west of us though.

[KatDaddy]

Wow Derek you went from 55kts being bogus to 67kts they caught up in 12 minutes

Kidding aside Gustav may be a very serious threat to the Upper Texas Coast and SW LA if he keeps sliding to the SW/WSW for the next few hours. Hoping the ridge weakens over the next 5 days.

[KWT]

they've caught up. 67KT flight level

Yeah I missed that Derek, that supports 60kts nearly doesn't it, very impressive dive and probably put more confidence into the high end strength forecasts, I still think cat-4 around 140-150mph is possible with this one just like Lili.

[Cryomaniac]

Yeah I missed that Derek, that supports 60kts nearly doesn't it, very impressive dive and probably put more confidence into the high end strength forecasts, I still think cat-4 around 140-150mph is possible with this one just like Lili.

This post is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on anything, and as such it should never be used for any purpose

I agree, if it follows the NHC track then cat 4 is possible. Maybe a cat 5 briefly.

[bob rulz]

Is a special advisory possible or will they just wait until 8?