ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

it also has not moved between the last 2 vortex fixes

[KatDaddy]

A CAT 5 could be possible if Gustav moves a little more W across the Central GOM and moves over the loop current.

[superfly]

It moved slightly NE between the last 2 vortexes, it wants to go back to Haiti.

[KWT]

They are probably just getting slightly better fix superfly, its very interesting to watch how Gustav just blew up overnight and got some good pressure drops, recon today is going to be very interesting to watch indeed, NW Caribbean may be doing it again...

[Smurfwicked]

Is it looking like its going to go just south of Jamaica like the latest NHC track shows keeping the center over water, or is the center going to have some land interaction with Jamaica?

[KWT]

Hard to say right now, I think the center may well go just to the south and looking at the way the explosive convection is it may well not get effected by the island much at all.

[dwg71]

looks to be leveling out and maybe starting to head due west to jamaica >>?? dont know.

[KWT]

Not easy to tell exactly where the center is right now thanks to the very deep explosive convection, even the NHC were surprised to see a center relocation occur.

Could be nearly anywhere in that deep convection it seems!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

looks to be leveling out and maybe starting to head due west to jamaica >>?? dont know.

That is what I seen in the recon. This thing kind of remains me of Fay.

[Smurfwicked]

Hard to say right now, I think the center may well go just to the south and looking at the way the explosive convection is it may well not get effected by the island much at all.

Winds clearly have room to catch up to the drop in pressure, current pressure supports a moderate cat 1 hurricane doesn't it? With each new frame I see nothing but expansion of the cold cloud tops.

[KWT]

Well the pressure is pretty low though in this set-up I've noticed that the pressure tends t be lower then the winds would suggest, right now I'd go along with 60kts myself but who knows what the NHC will do, it'll be higher then 45kts though thats for sure.

[crazycajuncane]

In less than 12 hours the post went from... wow this things is time to throw in the bucket. Someone get the shovel for Gustav.

Now... well now things have begin to change.

[KWT]

crazycajuncane, I've been saying all along just left the system reorganise itself and then we will get back with Gustav. One thing I did not expect is for it to totally relocate the center south but that has solved the issue of restacking it seems!

[abajan]

This is all unfreakingbelievable. Now we're talking about passing south of Jamaica. None of the models saw this. This has got to be a dream.

Imagine how the Jamaicans must feel. Whereas just hours before they were just expecting occasional storm force gusts, things may be much worse because Gustav's center will now be passing to their south, giving them stronger winds.

[KWT]

Yep may even get gusts to hurricane strength there, does anyone know if Jamaica is under a hurricane warning?
May not be far off from that strength by the time its near the SW side of the island if current trends continue.

[gboudx]

jeff's 6AM update from today.

Dangerous hurricane forecast in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

West shift in guidance and NHC track

Current:

As I warned yesterday I expected a short term WSW or SW motion and that is what has happened overnight. The center of Gustav has either re-formed or has been moving SW. Large convective burst right over the center and the plane is showing the pressure is down 10mb and the wind speed up to 67kts at flight level. Gustav appears to be quickly getting his act together.

Track:

There has been some significant changes in the guidance modeling and clustering. Some of the trusted global models have shifted westward overnight and expect for the GFDL generally show a slowing hurricane in the central and northern Gulf this weekend. A large ridge of high pressure remains anchored over S FL and this is resulting in the WSW to SW motion...how long this continues will have a bigger impact in the final landfall location along the US Gulf coast. The general consensus is aimed now west of SE LA...toward the central or SW LA coast and it should be noted that the error cone has shifted west to include all of SE TX down the coast to Port O Connor. The uncertainty remains high in the day 4-5 time periods and everyone in the entire error cone should be making the same preparations.,,,forecast track errors at this time period or up to 300 miles.

Intensity:

Well...Gustav is off and going this morning and is well on its way to regaining hurricane intensity. IF it strikes Jamaica that may result in a slight weakening, but once it clears that island there is nothing to impede rapid development. In fact Gustav may be very much stronger than the current NHC forecast suggest and could be a category 4 hurricane in the NW Caribbean and the SE Gulf of Mexico early this weekend. Once in the Gulf, Gustav will be crossing the very warm loop current with high oceanic heat content, light wind shear...in fact a 200mb anticyclone may be over the top of the storm, and favorable outflow aloft. Conditions are nearly ideal for a powerful hurricane and the potential for a major hurricane should be understood and taken very seriously. A category 3 hurricane is capable of extensive damage and category 4 extreme damage.

Actions:

Since Gustav is on the move, the window for preparation actions will begin to close. Critical decisions with respect to preparation and evacuation will need to be made in the next 36-48 hours.

The state of LA has declared a state of emergency and is prepping for massive evacuations.

At 800am this morning highway DMS signs will be changed with the activation of the state of TX fuel supply plan for impact of a major hurricane into the TX coast.

Timeline count down for emergency planners and evacuation planning was started yesterday at 300pm.

Residents need to review all hurricane preparation plans, supplies, and evacuation information and routes.

Be fully prepared to enact these plans this weekend including evacuation of storm surge inundation zones.


TD # 8:

New tropical depression forms NE of the Leeward Islands. The tropical wave NE of the islands had developed a closed low level circulation and persistent deep convection and is upgraded to TD 8. The track forecast is toward the NW and then a bend back toward the WNW and possible even W in the longer term...possibly threatening the Bahamas. Slow and steady intensification is expected. This storm could threaten the SE US next week as a hurricane.

[MWatkins]

I don't know why there is so much surprise given how this system went from open wave to having an eye like feature in 12 hours after development.

MW

[WmE]

Special Advisory issued. Gustav now 60kts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WTNT42 KNHC 281113
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF
GUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1130Z 17.8N 75.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 76.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.8N 78.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 80.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 82.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 91.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[dwg71]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

definately appears to have begin to move more west the last few frames... actually appears north of west to my untrained eye