ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[mutley]

This graphic tells the story of why Gustav will be a major hurricane.

No kidding! Just look at that. You couldn't pick a better path for intensity. Sheesh!

[gboudx]

What images are you folks looking at the get a fix on the center? From IR and WV, I don't see how you can pinpoint it. It does appear to be just on the next Tropical forecast point though.

[KWT]

That certaonly does look like a center Hurakan, very small center indeed which suggests that this will deepen quickly.

Also suggests the center has wobbled to the WNW...but the general path looks to be westerly.

[HurricaneHunter914]

In the middle of the white IR, you can see some sort of warm area. Is that Gustav's eye forming?

[Sjones]

Ed, I anticipate that you are getting really hungry for some crow...How would you like it served?

Vermillion Parish is in Texas?

Nope, it sure isn't. But Texas is more at risk and more in the cone today than it was yesterday.



*edited by sg to fix the quotes

[Meso]

And we have visual




Looking good

[dwg71]

first visible shows center north of nhc point..

[KWT]

May well be given its close to where the NHC suggested it was. HurricaneHunter914, if it is then this should make landfall on Jamaica. Should stall development but given its foward speed probably won't weaken it much either.

[mutley]

In the middle of the white IR, you can see some sort of warm area. Is that Gustav's eye forming?

If that is where the center is, I doubt it goes south of Jamaica.

[Hurricane Cheese]

And here's the high res

[Portastorm]

Ed, I anticipate that you are getting really hungry for some crow...How would you like it served?

Vermillion Parish is in Texas?

Nope, it sure isn't. But Texas is more at risk and more in the cone today than it was yesterday.

Yep ... Ed, hate to break this to you but if you access the spaghetti model tracks for 0z and especially 6z, you will see that almost half of them now are aimed at the Tx/La border or further west along the Texas coast. Sure it's only a model run or two and God knows the modeling changes from run to run ... but today's trend is NOT your friend!


*edited by sg to fix the quotes

[gatorcane]

it looks like there is an outside change of two hurricanes impacting the US within a few days of each other

and a chance, although small, of two majors.

I wonder when the last time that has happened?

[gboudx]

Porta, whats the link for the spaghetti model tracks? I'm thinking that if I google spaghetti model tracks, I might get pics of Sophia Loren walking on the beach. Which isn't bad, but not quite what I'm looking for.

[Evil Jeremy]

New BAM and GFDL models moving eastward to Mississippi

[superfly]

edit: never mind on not passing 18 degrees, but it does look like the south movement has more or less stopped.

[Sanibel]

Yeah, as expected that small burst last night has turned into an intense black IR recovery burst of a deep core. This is not what you want to see if you live in the landfall area. And this hasn't even tracked west of Jamaica yet where the waters are more likely for intensification.

Last time I saw black IR like that was some of our category 5 systems over the last few years. This should shut up the poster who said I was overhyping storms.

[Portastorm]

Porta, whats the link for the spaghetti model tracks? I'm thinking that if I google spaghetti model tracks, I might get pics of Sophia Loren walking on the beach. Which isn't bad, but not quite what I'm looking for.

LOL!

Try this link. Click on the upper right for "6z models for 07L" ... and use Google earth if you have it.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/

[Sabanic]

It has started moving north, at least per the last 2-3 recon passes. It's already past 18 degrees without hitting the center on the current S-N pass.

Man oh man! All these N-S-W movements are going to be crazy for a day or two and watching the models will be like watching a tennis match

[HouTXmetro]

edit: never mind on not passing 18 degrees, but it does look like the south movement has more or less stopped.

Let the Wobble Wars BEGIN! Per the last frame I still see WSW/SW.

[KWT]

Yep models once again shifting eastwards, the simple fact is they still aren't settled yet on landfall...thoug hthe GFDL looks to be doing a good job in the short term with a trakc over Jamaica looking very likely.

Looks like it may even go over the northern side of the island, very interesting trend would suggest a slightly further east eventual landfall, we shall see...