ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[MHurricanes]

Well the thing is Sabanic yesterday it looked like Gustav was getting exposed, then its center reformed and things seem to have gone bang in terms of convection as the center got stacked up very quickly.

KWT,

Soon after you retired last night, Gustav started to blow up. It was amazing how fast it strengthened.

-MHurricanes

[KWT]

Thats why you never rule out systems in the NW Caribbean MHurricanes, they have a habit of blowing up under good conditions.

In terms of movement , I see 275 right now, there is a slight north of west motion I see on the Sat.imagery though they only rough estimates, seems like its going to go over the northern side of the island, wonder if it'll wobble round the northern sider lioke Ivan did on the southern side?

[Hurricane Cheese]

Don't look now, but this may not have Tx in it's sights yet. Models continue to be in two camps.

My gut still tells me somewhere on the LA coast.

[CypressMike]

Well the thing is Sabanic yesterday it looked like Gustav was getting exposed, then its center reformed and things seem to have gone bang in terms of convection as the center got stacked up very quickly.

KWT,

Soon after you retired last night, Gustav started to blow up. It was amazing how fast it strengthened.

-MHurricanes

Yep. He started reorgainizing last night between 9:00 and 10:00 PM Central time. It was amazing to watch.

[gatorcane]

This is where all of our Pro Mets, approved amateurs and our very own STORM2K Analysts will be posting their thoughts on the current storms. Members will be able to participate in threads but not start new discussions. We hope this will make the best information easy to find for everyone.

I think Gustav has a chance of hitting CAT 5 strength somewhere around the loop current of extreme NW Caribbean.

The possibility is real but do not rule it out as environmental conditions appear favorable and Gustav has no more land interaction after Jamaica deterring him.

If he impacts the US in the GOM, it would probably be weaker but extremely dangerous, I'm calling for a borderline CAT 2/3 at this time mainly because of some last-minute dry air intrusion and some SW shear from the trough.

[gboudx]

Porta, whats the link for the spaghetti model tracks? I'm thinking that if I google spaghetti model tracks, I might get pics of Sophia Loren walking on the beach. Which isn't bad, but not quite what I'm looking for.

LOL!

Try this link. Click on the upper right for "6z models for 07L" ... and use Google earth if you have it.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/

Thanks.

[KWT]

Mind you reconm suggests there is a slight south of west motion, we shall have to wait and see...

Also note the pressure is down to 985mbs...ah dear still deepening away at a decent clip!

[Sanibel]

I could be totally wrong, but common sense tells me the more Gus routes around Jamaica to the south the more SW-NE the High is oriented and therefore the more Gus will recurve to the N then NE in the Gulf.

[dwg71]

i dont think it makes south of jamaica, over or slightly north of it.

[KWT]

Yep gatorcane conditions are looking very impressive in the NW Caribbean and given it should have an inner core I suspect we will have a top end hurricane, exactly how strong, really tough to say but the heat content is totally explosive on its path...

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think Jamaica is caught off guard today...Hope thier ready..

[Sanibel]

This movement is the same as GFDL of two days ago when it had Gus going to category 5. (GFDL has practically every storm going to category 5 - but never the less)

[HouTXmetro]

i dont think it makes south of jamaica, over or slightly north of it.

I called for a direct hit over Jamaica last night.

[jlauderdal]

This is where all of our Pro Mets, approved amateurs and our very own STORM2K Analysts will be posting their thoughts on the current storms. Members will be able to participate in threads but not start new discussions. We hope this will make the best information easy to find for everyone.

I think Gustav has a chance of hitting CAT 5 strength somewhere around the loop current of extreme NW Caribbean.

The possibility is real but do not rule it out as environmental conditions appear favorable and Gustav has no more land interaction after Jamaica deterring him.

If he impacts the US in the GOM, it would probably be weaker but extremely dangerous, I'm calling for a borderline CAT 2/3 at this time mainly because of some last-minute dry air intrusion and some SW shear from the trough.

not so fast on the no land intearaction, the yucatan is a possibility and western cuba although western cuba would be minimal unless it stalls and we have seen them stall in that bart of the world before

[crazycajuncane]

Local met showed this morning that Gustav is 80 miles away from his forecasted point. That is why the landfall has been pushed back 24 hours. That is why the track shifted 120 miles away from New Orleans. Now that's something to think about. There was an 80 mile variance in the 24 hour track.

Also a high pressure system could interact with Gustav and push it even further west. This would put the Upper Texas Coast more in the cone over the next few days. Possibly moving the line as early as the next update.

Also the winds were back up to 70 mph so I guess Gustav is ready to be a hurricane again.

[KWT]

Its going to be very tight as to whether it can make it to hurricane force before it crosses Jamaica, motrion is actually slightly south of west according to recon vortex fixes which is a little surprising.

A major hurricane just about odds on now I'd have thought.

[dwg71]

Local met showed this morning that Gustav is 80 miles away from his forecasted point. That is why the landfall has been pushed back 24 hours. That is why the track shifted 120 miles away from New Orleans. Now that's something to think about. There was an 80 mile variance in the 24 hour track.

Also a high pressure system could interact with Gustav and push it even further west. This would put the Upper Texas Coast more in the cone over the next few days. Possibly moving the line as early as the next update.

Also the winds were back up to 70 mph so I guess Gustav is ready to be a hurricane again.

I would think a slight shift back east from nhc at next update. they have storm going south of jamaica, dont think that going to happen.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

this says 80mph right now.

[Frank2]

Just a quick comment - I was listening to WWL (780 AM New Orleans) in the car on the way to breakfast and they were commenting that the data going into the models prior to yesterday seemed to be wrong since it did not account for the unusual motion of the storm so far (not to mention the fact that it's become stationary once again over the past couple of hours), so, they mentioned that the best advice to their listeners is to stay tuned, since the eventual track is uncertain...

I'd have to agree with them...

Frank

[invest man]

Gatorcane, if this does happen to become a cat 5 or even a medium 4, for lets say 24 to 36 hrs before it encounters shear or dry air intrusion, and I believe that your assessment is a very likely possability, can you give any idea of what type of tidal surge would do in the areas that the nhc has the center coming near would be? My question comes from a rememberance of both Katrina of course on the GC and Isabel on the east coast that both were powerful storms moving toward the coasts but weakened prior to landfall but yet created massive damage just from tidal surge. My overall point is here that just because a storm happens to weaken in wind spead, it takes longer to decrease waves and surge so folks do not need to let down their gaurd if this should happen especially in the coastal lowlying areas. JR