ATL: IKE Discussion

[Canelaw99]

Welllll......this new WNW/NW development means 3 things:

1) you're never totally out of the woods until the storm has passed wayyyy west and south of you LOL

2) Mother Nature is clearly in control no matter how hard we try to predict her movements

3) methinks we need a wobble watch thread for Ike as these wobble posts are going to continue through the evening it seems....

[deltadog03]

WOW, I see it too...LOL Well, we will have to see how long this lasts....

[fci]

Cuban radar shows more wnw to nw movement:

Radar confirms WNW.

Any danger of this being a turn and Ike missing Cuba completely?

[Just Joshing You]

I doubt it will miss cuba completely.

[fasterdisaster]

EWRC happening right now?

[Ivanhater]

Cuban radar shows more wnw to nw movement:

Radar confirms WNW.

Any daner of this being a turn and Ike missing Cuba completely?

The Florida straits and the Keys are well within the cone, just have to see what happens this evening

[cycloneye]

Cuban radar shows more wnw to nw movement:

Radar confirms WNW.

Any daner of this being a turn and Ike missing Cuba completely?

Never say never in the tropics because anything can happen and hurricanes dont follow in a strait way a line that NHC draws.That is why there is a cone.

[Aric Dunn]

also what ever thoughts of a ERC seem to be going out the door as very intense convection is firing and intensifying the inner core after some warming of it earlier... actually this present trend with the eye contracting and intense convection around the inner core would suggest intensification shortly..

[HurricaneRobert]

Ike's busting out of the cone?

[fasterdisaster]

also what ever thoughts of a ERC seem to be going out the door as very intense convection is firing and intensifying the inner core after some warming of it earlier... actually this present trend with the eye contracting and intense convection around the inner core would suggest intensification shortly..

I'm not sure, his SW quadrant is asymmetric to the rounder more intense convection and on visible it looks like another eyewall is POSSIBLY forming. Just my untrained eyes obviously.

[miamijaaz]

Wow, hell of a wobble if it is one.

[MiamiensisWx]

Never say never in the tropics because anything can happen and hurricanes dont follow in a strait way a line that NHC draws.That is why there is a cone.

Of course, it's true, but it becomes a trite statement when the 500 mb streamline analysis does not favor a prolonged WNW movement:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

The current movement may likely represent a wobble. I agree that caution and readiness is essential for all locations within the cone, but I believe it is more critical to focus on the mid/upper level steering and long term movement.

Regardless, preparedness is essential for all sites...

[Aric Dunn]

also what ever thoughts of a ERC seem to be going out the door as very intense convection is firing and intensifying the inner core after some warming of it earlier... actually this present trend with the eye contracting and intense convection around the inner core would suggest intensification shortly..

I'm not sure, his SW quadrant is asymmetric to the rounder more intense convection and on visible it looks like another eyewall is POSSIBLY forming. Just my untrained eyes obviously.

but watch trend with the loop again in IR .. not visible ..


also ,.... this is the opposite of a an ERC

[mpic]

webcams

http://www.oceankey.com/oceankey_islandcam.aspx

http://www.pcove.com/webcam.htm

[fasterdisaster]

He's very well north of the forecast point and even if he started moving a little south of west now he would still glide considerably north of it. In my unproffesional opinion it looks like he might only graze the north coast of Cuba.

[jinftl]

I think a really far-removed feeder band is about to move over us in sfl....been clear all day..now watching white cloud band to the east close in....not your usual looking florida thunderstorm...clouds seem like a band...arc shape


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[Sanibel]

What is happening here is either an island effect or a NAM type turn that the system will accept and bring the outer eye into compliance with or not.

[Flakeys]

When does a wobble become a trend?

[Canelaw99]

Never say never in the tropics because anything can happen and hurricanes dont follow in a strait way a line that NHC draws.That is why there is a cone.

Of course, it's true, but it becomes a trite statement when the 500 mb streamline analysis does not favor a prolonged WNW movement:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

The current movement may likely present a wobble. I agree that caution and readiness is essential for all locations within the cone, but I believe it is more critical to focus on the mid/upper level steering and long term movement.

Maybe I'm not sure how to read those graphics (and I know I'm not totally sure) but it seems there would be enough of a chance for it to go WNW to change the track somewhat in the short term. It seems there's more of a break in that ridge than was originally forecast.....just my totally unprofessional opinion....

[cycloneye]

3:45 PM EDT: