ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[AJC3]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM//rmsdsol/tropical.html

A station on the southern coast has turned out of the east. That means one of two things 1# It has reformed near 18.2/71 in is now over water or 2# it is no longer closed.

Your's not talking about the ob at Punta Cana, are you? A SE wind there would not support either of your assertions.

[Dean4Storms]

Just as I figured, this looks to be relocating just off the south shore closer to the deep tropical inflow from the south.

[tpr1967]

That east wind at 9mph was reported out of Barahona at 7:oo pm 3 hours ago. No recent
reports. I was tricked by that to.

[HURAKAN]

wxman57, if Fay becomes stronger than expected, could it turn before than expected putting Florida more in the bullseye?

[HurricaneBelle]

Wxman it has been a *long* time since the Greater Tampa Bay area has seen hurricane force winds. Even Elena stayed far enough away to prevent any winds higher than TS.

Climatology says NO to a West Coast of Florida hit.

Gatorcane:

Go Gators!!!! Could you please explain your comment? I like what you are saying but don't understand the thought process. Thanks,
Lynn

I'm not Gatorcane, but he does have a point, at least as to history. It's highly questionable that the Tampa Bay area has experience hurricane force winds at any point since the 1921 storm. Easy did most of its damage further up the Nature Coast and had weakened when it dropped south here. Donna passed through Lakeland on its way across the state and gave the TB area 65-70 MPH northerly winds, and as mentioned Elena was only TS force, as were Frances and Jeanne by the time they made it across the state.

The most likely instances of hurricane force winds in the Tampa Bay area post-1921 were the 1944 Pinar del Rio hurricane, which came in at Sarasota (considered part of the Tampa Bay area but not the immediate Pinellas-Pasco-Hillsborough area - Orlando suffered worse than Tampa on this one, a la Charley), and perhaps the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as it passed offshore Tampa Bay on its way to a Big Bend landfall in a weakened state.

Of course none of this will have anything to do with where Fay ends up going.

[AJC3]

That east wind at 9mph was reported out of Barahona at 7:oo pm 3 hours ago. No recent
reports. I was tricked by that to.

Ah, gotcha. I was wondering what he was talking about since I didn't see any east winds along the south coast on the 02Z plot.

[txag2005]

Anyone think there is any chance of landfall in the western gulf?

[Dean4Storms]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM//rmsdsol/tropical.html

A station on the southern coast has turned out of the east. That means one of two things 1# It has reformed near 18.2/71 in is now over water or 2# it is no longer closed.

Your's not talking about the ob at Punta Cana, are you? A SE wind there would not support either of your assertions.

I believe it is Santo Domingo.

[AJC3]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM//rmsdsol/tropical.html

A station on the southern coast has turned out of the east. That means one of two things 1# It has reformed near 18.2/71 in is now over water or 2# it is no longer closed.

Your's not talking about the ob at Punta Cana, are you? A SE wind there would not support either of your assertions.

I believe it is Santo Domingo.

Last I looked, Santo Domingo was 150/35kt.

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone think there is any chance of landfall in the western gulf?

About a 5% chance tops.

[fasterdisaster]

Anyone think there is any chance of landfall in the western gulf?

I'd say west of Houston is safe but otherwise all the Gulf should be watching.

[tpr1967]

Las Americas 10:00 pm on south coast

Wind from the SSE (150 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 KT)
Visibility less than 1 mile
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain with thunder
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob MDSD 160200Z 15035KT 1000 +TSRA FEW010CB BKN012 OVC060 24/23 Q1011 CB/NE/E/SE/SW

[masaji79]

It sure does look like the LLC is being pulled towards the SW on the latest IR Loop. But then again these are just amatuer eyes.

[rockyman]

NHC Forecast package rolling in--now predicing 75kt hurricane:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2030.shtml

[Sanibel]

The center looks like it is about to go over the highest peaks on Hispaniola. It's going to need that deep convection to survive. This may run up the spine of Cuba too if it keeps tracking in this direction.

[artist]

what time is 22:42 ATC = in UTC

this dominican radar looks to show a turning motion building South as the LLC gets to the mountains

http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

I see turning where my red circle is -

[rockyman]

From the 11pm disco:

ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN
GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I
AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT
TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0239.shtml

[meteorologyman]

Starting with Car

Make sure you fill up on gas: I wish people would do in incremints instead of all at once, so everyone can get out.

Check those tires and make sure pumped and ready to go.

If oil is close to be needed to change, do it now, not later, or even if it's low fill it up, that includes transmission fluid.

Make sure there is water in the vehicle, it will be bad for vehicle to over heat

[rockyman]

[wxman57]

Anyone think there is any chance of landfall in the western gulf?

No