ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Tireman4]

I hope there is not a media frenzy here in the Houston Metro area tomorrow. Goodness. Derek, do you think that the entire Texas coast should watch this? ( I am hoping you have not already answered this...)

[RL3AO]

I think the plan of the NHC is to raise the forecast slightly each advisory. Instead of first advisory 95kts at landfall, you start at 60 and work your way up slowly. Then you don't have as much of a shock.

[Ivanhater]

THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.

[kevin]

The NHC says what others have been saying the entire time, that the center could very well reform back under the deep convection and completely miss the Yucatan. Haven't we all seen this happen repeatedly before?

[Chacor]

THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW.

o_O

According to the 11pm discussion, you, my friend, are correct.!

I was quoting the discussion.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC's discussion also said its probably an open wave

but it said no NEED to get hung up on technicality

[Sanibel]

They aren't finding the return winds because the deep layer easterlies are too strong.

[Just Joshing You]

THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW.

o_O

According to the 11pm discussion, you, my friend, are correct.!

He copied and pasted it directly from the advisory... he didn't guess anything...

[Steve]

>>Now some are questioning the NHC because they haven't posted yet? Come on guys...LOL

I am not questioning them for that, just noting that the Christobal information was out a few minutes earlier. I can only speak for myself.

Steve

[ROCK]

They also said PROBABLY.....so again you can infer that statement multiple ways....

[HouTXmetro]

So if it's an open wave shouldn't Dolly be downgraded?

[gatorcane]

Well there is almost certainly some politics going on -- with tomorrow the start of a week on Wall Street, its not in the NHC best interest to project a major hurricane in the GOM even if conditions are there for one. It's better to be conservate ATM. Once/if certainly becomes high, then NHC will communicate their forecast because of the safety of residents along the Western GOM coast.

[stevetampa33614]

NHC's discussion also said its probably an open wave

Ya what the heck

This is unbearable. Stupid storm. No doubt a center will reform under the convection which shooting through the channel. So the whole gulf may be in play.

[Sanibel]

Radar will find the center very late tonight.

[RL3AO]

>>Now some are questioning the NHC because they haven't posted yet? Come on guys...LOL

I am not questioning them for that, just noting that the Christobal information was out a few minutes earlier. I can only speak for myself.

Steve

They have to do three advisory packages every six hours. One of them has to be last.

[HarlequinBoy]

should NHC issue a TS warning for western Cuba too?

The NHC doesn't issue watches or watchings, governments do.

Does the NHC issue the warnings for the US or does the government?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I just now have finally caught up reading all the posts today. Been working all day. After further review I have to agree with AFM, Dean, and all the others talking about llc reformations. I do agree though that the current one will probably make landfall around cozumel, but will quickly die off then a new one will quickly reform under that massive blob that has been firing throughout the day once it enters the gulf. From there who knows. One thing I saw that, forgive me for not remembering who, that has me wondering is the loop that shows the NE flow out of Mexico towards MS, AL. Not sure if it means anything but something to watch as others have said. I guess tomorrow will be the day of reckoning for us gomers.

[Derek Ortt]

I hope there is not a media frenzy here in the Houston Metro area tomorrow. Goodness. Derek, do you think that the entire Texas coast should watch this? ( I am hoping you have not already answered this...)

please ask these questions like this in the analysis forum so the answer does not get buried beneath the chatter

[Chacor]

So if it's an open wave shouldn't Dolly be downgraded?

Technically, yes, but:

SINCE DOLLY COULD
REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY
HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY.

[jaxfladude]

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY.

IMHO not official always refer to NHC for official info...
I think the likelihood of a Texas landfall just went up at least 10% or more...