ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

What is the chance of a direct/indirect threat in SFL at this point?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

OK, I am answering based on what I have recalled in the past.

I think that this storm will get further West than expected and due to this Fay will pass about 100 miles West of Key West.
The landfall will be in the Panhandle area (Destin or Panama City) and I would not be shocked to see it further west even as far as Alabama/Missisippi.

The effect on Southeast Florida, where you and I live; will be minimal with a little bit of a gusty wind.

We caught a big break when Fay waited so long to develop and ended up going so far west
Had she developed north of Puerto Rico or just barely skimmed the coast of DR; we would be very worried right now with all the warm water ahead of the storm

If Fay were to turn earlier and go across the mountainous part of Cuba, she would be greatly weakened and woudl limp towards us.

We caught a break here.......again.

Just my opinion based on years of following storms.

FCI its a bit too early to say this. If you look back at climatology SE Florida is the target more than the Western GOM by a 25% to 75% odds for GOM and SE Florida respectively....and NAM just rolled in and puts it back E of Florida.

Hold on its going to be bumpy with this one I'm afraid.

[A1A]

Which one of these is the "NAM" model??

[lbvbl]

another storm noone has mentioned is Wilma... is that type of scenario out of the question at this point?

[Vortex]

nam not on there...be;ow hot off the press

00Z NAM-east of florida and excellent initialization. GFS should prove interesting to determine any trends


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

here we go...and why the NHC wants trends and not just making forecasts on a single run. They are giving respect to the NAM and have mentioned it for the 5pm EST discussion

[RL3AO]

Which one of these is the "NAM" model??

None of them.

[Blown Away]

Direct hit hurricanes for Tampa and Appalachicola are rare and I just don't buy that track. I think the NHC is being very careful rate now because there is not that much longitude difference W FL and SE FL and a few mph faster or slower in forward speed over the next 24 hours can make a big difference. I think that's why the NHC wants another run or 2 of models to feel comfortable. IMO, I see either N.O. to Pensacola or up the Peninsula center. Still don't rule out missing FL to the E. I'm feeling W trend.

[MiamiensisWx]

here we go...and why the NHC wants trends and not just making forecasts on a single run

Gator,

Many experienced meteorologists (here and on another board) and myself believe this is a threat to the Gulf Coast (specifically the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend) instead of southeast Florida.

I would trust the mets here (and me, though I'm not a met as of now).

[CYCLONE MIKE]

miamiwx, that is a great write up. Very good info. Those are some of my concerns also. Just have to see if the trend continue west. Personally I think a Katrina type track could happen. No not that it will hit New Orleans, but just as everyone thinks it will hit the eastern panhandle because that is what the majority of models show, slowly day after day they keep shifting to the west because the ridge is stronger than forecast or the weakness never really catches Fay.

[meteorologyman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

"Again, Now I'm not saying it's going to happen" but with the low over Yucatan Peninsula if it edges furthe East This storm could follow what Charlie d

[MiamiensisWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

"Again, Now I'm not saying it's going to happen" but with the low over Yucatan Peninsula if it edges furthe East This storm could follow what Charlie d

It won't move east... that weak TUTT is moving west (retrograding) under the upper level ridging.

Please focus on the big picture... since we may be dealing with a serious hurricane down the line, residents will rely on this site more than ever for information. This is just my friendly advice...

[Noles2006]

Direct hit hurricanes for Tampa and Appalachicola are rare and I just don't buy that track. I think the NHC is being very careful rate now because there is not that much longitude difference W FL and SE FL and a few mph faster or slower in forward speed over the next 24 hours can make a big difference. I think that's why the NHC wants another run or 2 of models to feel comfortable. IMO, I see either N.O. to Pensacola or up the Peninsula center. Still don't rule out missing FL to the E. I'm feeling W trend.

You're placing far too much importance on climatology.

[cpdaman]

[quote="MiamiensisWx
Please focus on the big picture... since we may be dealing with a serious hurricane down the line, residents will rely on this site more than ever for information. This is just my friendly advice...[/quote]

i was wondering what the numbers are for the amount of EXTRA resident's who actually log on and lurk here in hurricane situations........100......?

[lbvbl]

I'm in SE FL and would certainly not mind a weak hurricane coming our way (to suspend the start of school). Although most posts on here and the majority of the models indicated a westward trend, my local weather station seems to be making somewhat of a big deal about this. I dont know if it is just there job to have use overly prepared or not, but one of the things i heard mentioned was how uncertain NHC is about whether the storm will go through W FL or central FL. Its almost as if they think the track is more likely to shift East than more west, as many have been predicting. What are your thoughts on this?? Thanks for the help.

[gatorcane]

MiamiWx keep in mind only 1 system has affected the panhandle of FL in 150 years of systems forming where Fay is located (month of August). It happened, way way back in 1851, most either head to the Western GOM or impact Southern FL or stay east of Southern FL....

This would be a big exception if this track to the panhandle verified. Personally I think we are going to wake up tomorrow and see a different looking Fay as the Mountains of Hispaniola are already ripping into it in my opinion and I a gradual collapse of convection already on the NW side ---- so I think it should be pretty weak by tomorrow AM and who knows where the remnant LLC will pop out of that big island.

[AtlanticWind]

I'm in SE FL and would certainly not mind a weak hurricane coming our way (to suspend the start of school). Although most posts on here and the majority of the models indicated a westward trend, my local weather station seems to be making somewhat of a big deal about this. I dont know if it is just there job to have use overly prepared or not, but one of the things i heard mentioned was how uncertain NHC is about whether the storm will go through W FL or central FL. Its almost as if they think the track is more likely to shift East than more west, as many have been predicting. What are your thoughts on this?? Thanks for the help.

The track could shift a little east or west at this point

[x-y-no]

0Z gfs has begun.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Category 5]

I don't think it's time to panic, I already sense alot of anxiety on the board about this. Relax, we have a couple days to follow this. Those in the cone should be ready to spring into action at a moments notice, but for now, keep a close eye on it, and make sure your plan is ready to go. If you have family in the cone, give them a call and update them on the situation, make sure they're aware.

Now, I'd like to hand this out to everyone who wrote off 92 a few days ago, yous know who you are.

[SouthFLTropics]

nam not on there...be;ow hot off the press

00Z NAM-east of florida and excellent initialization. GFS should prove interesting to determine any trends


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Isn't this the same direction the NAM ran in the earlier runs today? How reliable is the NAM? When should we see the GFS and GFDL models? Should be coming in shortly shouldn't it?

[Derek Ortt]

nam not on there...be;ow hot off the press

00Z NAM-east of florida and excellent initialization. GFS should prove interesting to determine any trends


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

the NAM is utterly worthless