ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

overall cloud pattern, symmetry....he looks flawless and not fighting any type of shear in one of his quadrants or anything like that

4:15 PM EDT

[Irina]

Doesn't this look like he's going parallel to Cuba? I thought he was supposed to hit that easternmost tip as first landfall?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Cheers. I think.
irina

[KWT]

back onto a more westerly motion in the last hour, the type of motion you'd expect given the steering pattern.

After the enxt 6-9hrs we have a very lnog track over land, then we shall see just how Ike is after it emerges from land, don't be surprised if it takes a good 24-48hrs to re ramp up.

[caneman]

Miami,

In Gators defense that was a fairly big and long wobble WNW.

[feederband]

Well the 5:00pm should be fun...

[stayawaynow]

All this wobble watching is making me wacky

[Dean4Storms]

Well lets hope another WNW to NW wobble does not commence sooner than forecasted. The models and the NHC did see the turn toward the WNW coming once over Cuba so it could have begun a bit earlier which does have ramifications over intensity and higher threats to the Keys and even SW Florida if it turns even more than forecasted.

[Sabanic]

He is most definitely N of the next forecast point, and as many of you have said he is buying a significant amount of time to spend on water. If he were to continue this much longer and still go back due west his tiime on Cuba would be minimal, and he would miss some rough terrain also. This could be much worse for the Keys and the effect on S/FL would be much more.

IMO

[Aric Dunn]

The WNW "movement" is the wobble, gator... Ike is "adjusting" back to the average long term W movement at the end.

Denial is the first step to acceptance.

thats not the case miami... if it was correcting then it would still be riding the 21n line but its north of that so.. yeah although it is most likely a wobble its north of a straight west track from its earlier position

[gatorcane]

I agree with Nexrad, I don't see that the NHC puts South Florida back in the cone...
and if Ike pulled a more NW movement over the next few days instead of west despite all model guidance....what a shocker it would be..

as if Ike has not shocked us with his SW bias already ?

[jinftl]

true..and good reality check...if nothing else, this goes down as an example of when a wobble can really make an impact...helped ike bypass part of mountainout cuba....even if he resumes his otherwise steady motion and south florida can sleep peacefully in ignorance with no chance of a surprise to follow

I noticed Ike's wobbles this afternoon and tried to find any evidence of less than expected synoptic pattern changes, but came up empty. Therefore, I conclude that the hurricane's more WNW jogs seen today were just that - temporary jogs. Recall that powerful hurricanes often have eye wobbles, so the hour to hour movement of the eye feature itself really doesn't matter too much in the longer term unless the movements prove to be persistent and mirrored in the movement of the overall convective envelope. Ike's convective mass is moving generally west, as was anticipated, though it's a little hard to discern with the convective expansions and contractions that have taken place off and on during the past several hours.

As far as NHC error cones, it would take a noteworthy shift in the NHC's 5PM forecast track to bring S. Florida back into the cone, and it would take an even more dramatic shift in the storm's future path to bring Ike close enough to South Florida to bring more than outer passing squalls to the region. While that could theoretically happen, to see such actually occur inspite of tight model clustering would be just plain shocking.

- Jay

[KWT]

If it heads near due west from this point Ike will come inland very close to where the GFDL expects it to come inland and so no reason to doubt the GFDL expectations in the next 24-48hrs in terms of track.

[deltadog03]

Wow, are we fighting here??? I think we can all agree the sustained WSW movement has stopped.....There will be wobbles all over the place...I would say the sustaining movement right now would be around 275-280....

[jlauderdal]

This is clearly a solid 280-285 motion the last 3 hours...

at least we have a center to track unlike with hanna which was absolute torture, same with fay too

[jinftl]

a ts watch may not be unwarranted...even as of 11am advisory, miami was showing 41% chance of ts force winds.

andros is a hurricane watch without being in cone....a ts watch with no cone can send the right msg if deemed needed

I agree with Nexrad, I don't see that the NHC puts South Florida back in the cone...
and if Ike pulled a more NW movement over the next few days instead of west despite all model guidance....what a shocker it would be..

as if Ike has not shocked us with his SW bias already ?

[ConvergenceZone]

Doesn't this look like he's going parallel to Cuba? I thought he was supposed to hit that easternmost tip as first landfall?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Cheers. I think.
irina

This is not going to be hitting the eastern part of Cuba like they were predicting...The wobble took care of that....More like Central Cuba, less time over land, NOT GOOD....

[KWT]

I think movement over the last 3hrs is indeed probably close to 280 but looks like the eye has moved back to near due west.

[Cristina]

This is not going to get assistance weakening from the dry air. That loop of dry air is getting squeezed out and its not getting anywhere close to the core. I was hoping this thing would get assistance weakening from this dry air. But that will not be the case.

"Please help us Obi Wan, Cuba is our only hope"

Please don't wish it on Cuba, they are still suffering from Gustav and they are not able to recover from their misery.

[jinftl]

after days of nothing but wsw, ike sure picked an interesting time to test his wobble legs in a northward direction....right before his usual track would have made him a mountain climber right about now....

I think movement over the last 3hrs is indeed probably close to 280 but looks like the eye has moved back to near due west.

[KWT]

CZ, its coming in a little north of where the NHC probably very close to the GFDL.

Still doesn't alter the fact its going over 400 miles of land to track over, if thats not a core wrecker I don't know what is!