ATL: IKE Discussion

[jlauderdal]

well Ike is giving the NHC a rough time needless to say...didn't they mention in the 11AM discussion models had stopped shifting south? Guess not.

Look at this animation of the cone over time....its bent to the NW but the whole cone just keeps shifting west each advisory...I think it has shifted over 800 miles west...or so:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Come on...the CONE shifts west because the 5 day advisory point shifts west.

We've been over this.

When the track shifts west...so will the cone. IF the track shifts NW...then the BIG circle around the points will also shift NW. Its AUTOMATIC.

I would urge anyone that is not 100% sure of themselves in regards to the cone to read the link below. Me and AJC3 had a tough time a week ago today convincing someone how it works so please read this so there is no confusion. The cone is not some random calculation that's made up for each storm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

[feederband]

Based on the new NHC forecast points, Ike will have to go due west quite a ways to hit the second forecast point...seems to be passing just north of the first forecast point already:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Its almost at the point where it would have to go a liitle wsw..

[ConvergenceZone]

well NHC is shifting the cone south yet again. Mexico threat?

It has just as much chance of hitting Mexico as it does Texas....Other than you, people aren't even Mexico on here which is suprising, yet the tracks continue to move further and further south . Mexico needs to watch out for Ike....The chances seem to be increasing with every advisory....

[jinftl]

Looks like Ike will be able to remain over water at least for 4 more hours plus or minus...even with a 270 heading....looks like closest land is at about 75.7W...maybe 60 or so miles to his west

[fasterdisaster]

If you omit all but the last three frames on that it shows he's going due west or slightly north of it

[wx247]

Just an unscientific bit of info here... over the past 6 hrs, according to my figures, the center has moved .2ºN and 1.0ºW. IF (and that is a big if) movement continues to average something similar to that... the center would not make landfall until somewhere around 77ºW. That is much more time in the water than is forecasted. Thoughts?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Lowpressure]

Not on the hi-res 1KM. Not anymore.

Gald I'm not the only one who is seeing that its blatently not heading WNW anymore!

In the last frame it flattened out to more westerly. It is doing the ole wobble thing. But still not south of west.

[KWT]

I'm seeing probably 270 over the last hour or so which would make more logical sense given the synoptic pattern...

This is going to be very bad in the gulf when little wobbles make differences for the US!

[fasterdisaster]

Agreed lowpressure, he'll probably wobble NW again in an hour or two.

[Sabanic]

I'm seeing probably 270 over the last hour or so which would make more logical sense given the synoptic pattern...

This is going to be very bad in the gulf when little wobbles make differences for the US!

No kidding.

He will be N of the next forecast point, and it just came out at 5PM right?

[Lowpressure]

I'm seeing probably 270 over the last hour or so which would make more logical sense given the synoptic pattern...

This is going to be very bad in the gulf when little wobbles make differences for the US!

My biggest concern here is he somehow manages to skirt the northern coast of Cuba all the way to the GOM.
Oh, KWT, thanks for the mature agree to disagree forum. Very refreshing that if two do not see the same thing the can still post without attacking each other. Good work my friend.

[Cookiely]

Looks like TX bound for sure. 5PM discussion leaves little doubt. They seem very confident.

Doesn't sound to me like they have any idea where this will make landfall in the GOM.
From the 5pm discussion:

However...one should not
focus too much on small changes in the track...and it is much too
early to anticipate which areas along the Gulf Coast could be
impacted by this system.

[stormy1970al]

It is going to be a long week here. I am glad that I wasn't imagining that slight jog to the N of the trop track points. My nine year old even pointed out that it wasn't hitting Cuba at the moment and that little dot seemed to be too far South.

[NEXRAD]

Ike's moving pretty much as was expected by earlier official forecasts. Towards a post I saw a moment ago about a typhoon that moved in a manner completely opposite of model guidance, that is always a possibility, but is quite rare for occasions like Ike when model guidance is tightly clustered for a short and medium range period. An unexpected long-term movement from Ike over the next 24 hours would be unusual, too, given the basic synoptic setup of a single strong ridge uncontaminated by any appreciable mitigating synoptic features. Ike's track through Tuesday is pretty well understood. Wobbles will occur, but the storm is very likely to stay south of the Keys and result in relatively minimal impacts for areas to the north.

- Jay

[ObsessedMiami]

If the storm moves out over water longer on this WNW motion and misses north of the forecast points, is there a posibility of TS warnings for Miami-Dade and even Broward?

[jinftl]

I was trying to see if that is realistically possible...the island starts to slope about 300 degrees....for ike to remain offshore...essentially paralleling the north coast...he will need to average his motion out at about w-nw to nw. That will be a feat if he can..otherwise he is going to touch cuba at some point...not convinced he is that agile yet

I'm seeing probably 270 over the last hour or so which would make more logical sense given the synoptic pattern...

This is going to be very bad in the gulf when little wobbles make differences for the US!

My biggest concern here is he somehow manages to skirt the northern coast of Cuba all the way to the GOM.
Oh, KWT, thanks for the mature agree to disagree forum. Very refreshing that if two do not see the same thing the can still post without attacking each other. Good work my friend.

[mpic]

Is the ridge that's keeping Ike from turning straight north scheduled, predicted or expected to move any at all or should it be stationary? With the data we have now...I know that anything COULD change.

[Windy]

well NHC is shifting the cone south yet again. Mexico threat?

It has just as much chance of hitting Mexico as it does Texas....Other than you, people aren't even Mexico on here which is suprising, yet the tracks continue to move further and further south putting Mexico more and more in the cone......Mexico needs to watch out for Ike....The chances seem to be increasing with every advisory....

I don't think they speak American down there -- that's probably why they're not on this board. I wonder if there is a Spanish language hurricane board out there? Something like AyDiosMio.com.

[Brent]

I'm seeing probably 270 over the last hour or so which would make more logical sense given the synoptic pattern...

This is going to be very bad in the gulf when little wobbles make differences for the US!

My biggest concern here is he somehow manages to skirt the northern coast of Cuba all the way to the GOM.

I was noticing that. NHC only has it moving .1 north before Cuban landfall tonight, then makes a right turn, then a left over Cuba again. The line between 2am tonight and 2pm tomorrow is VERY close to being over water, 5-15 miles.

[KWT]

Lowpressure, its cool I've learnt never to assume your always right when it comes to the tropics

Agreed its probably not south of west but if it holds current motion then its heading towards that northern point of east cuba.