ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sabanic]

What effect on the track if any would his spending much less time over Cuba have? I know the intensity would be lower if he were over land longer, but could it have an effect on the future track?

[cpdaman]

Just an unscientific bit of info here... over the past 6 hrs, according to my figures, the center has moved .2ºN and 1.0ºW. IF (and that is a big if) movement continues to average something similar to that... the center would not make landfall until somewhere around 77ºW. That is much more time in the water than is forecasted. Thoughts?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

yes the more time it had over water prior to landfall will be more than made up for by staying over land longer and missing exiting cuba 21.5 /78.5 which he might have done, if it wasn't for the two hours of wnw movement

[stormhorn]

well NHC is shifting the cone south yet again. Mexico threat?

It has just as much chance of hitting Mexico as it does Texas....Other than you, people aren't even Mexico on here which is suprising, yet the tracks continue to move further and further south putting Mexico more and more in the cone......Mexico needs to watch out for Ike....The chances seem to be increasing with every advisory....

I don't think they speak American down there -- that's probably why they're not on this board. I wonder if there is a Spanish language hurricane board out there? Something like AyDiosMio.com.

This board is based in America, right?? So just press #1 for Spanish.

[NEXRAD]

Is the ridge that's keeping Ike from turning straight north scheduled, predicted or expected to move any at all or should it be stationary? With the data we have now...I know that anything COULD change.

The overall upper level pattern is mostly zonal. There are some shallow troughs present, but nothing dramatic enough to break-down the ridging and steer Ike northward anytime soon. Guidance has been mixed about the strength of troughing and its interaction with the ridge for the mid-week period, which is why models have been swapping between taking Ike towards the N-Central Gulf Coast and more westward. However, trends have been favoring Ike staying a more west track than a more north and east one.

The mid and upper level reflection of the ridge has been progressing northeastward but it is concurrent with additional ridging that narrowly spans across Florida and extends more broadly into the Gulf. Therein, even with the deeper ridging situated farther north and east, it seems improbable that this alone will translate to Ike moving more north in the next day or so.

- Jay

[jinftl]

maybe nhc would assess that tomorrow...guess it is still too far out timewise and the current track might only bring some ts gusts in squalls...which we have seen on or off almost weekly for the past month being on the periphery of one ts or another

If the storm moves out over water longer on this WNW motion and misses north of the forecast points, is there a posibility of TS warnings for Miami-Dade and even Broward?

[Storm Contractor]

Jeff Masters this afternoon . . .

Once Ike emerges into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, a weak trough of low pressure passing to the north may be able to induce a more north-northwesterly motion to Ike, and pull it towards the Florida Panhandle, bringing tropical storm force winds to Tampa on Wednesday. The HWRF and NOGAPS models predict this, though the HWRF takes Ike further from Florida than in its previous run. The rest of the models push Ike more to the west, into the central Gulf of Mexico. The eventual landfall locations predicted by the models range from the Florida Panhandle to the South Texas coast. It is too early to guess where Ike will go at this point, since landfall is probably about 6 days away.
Intensity forecast for IkeIke has remained at constant intensity today, and no major changes are expected before landfall in Cuba tonight. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have warmed to 29.5°C underneath Ike and will warm to 30.0°C over the Gulf of Mexico. Shear has dropped below 10 knots and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the next four days. As long as Ike is not over Cuba, it has favorable conditions for intensification. Once Ike passes Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico, the intensification potential remains high, as shear is predicted to be below 15 knots, and the waters are hot.

Well that is enough for me! I am now convinced this IS NOT coming to the Panhandle!

[Cookiely]

[quote="jinftl"]I was trying to see if that is realistically possible...the island starts to slope about 300 degrees....for ike to remain offshore...essentially paralleling the north coast...he will need to average his motion out at about w-nw to nw. That will be a feat if he can..otherwise he is going to touch cuba at some point...not convinced he is that agile yet]
I was wondering if it was possible for Ike to shoot the gap without touching Cuba at this point. Like threading the eye of a needle (I wear trifocals).

[mpic]

Is the ridge that's keeping Ike from turning straight north scheduled, predicted or expected to move any at all or should it be stationary? With the data we have now...I know that anything COULD change.

The overall upper level pattern is mostly zonal. There are some shallow troughs present, but nothing dramatic enough to break-down the ridging and steer Ike northward anytime soon. Guidance has been mixed about the strength of troughing and its interaction with the ridge for the mid-week period, which is why models have been swapping between taking Ike towards the N-Central Gulf Coast and more westward. However, trends have been favoring Ike staying a more west track than a more north and east one.

The mid and upper level reflection of the ridge has been progressing northeastward but it is concurrent with additional ridging that narrowly spans across Florida and extends more broadly into the Gulf. Therein, even with the deeper ridging situated farther north and east, it seems improbable that this alone will translate to Ike moving more north in the next day or so.

- Jay

Actually, I was wondering if that ridge would keep moving west and go ahead and push Ike farther west and therefore into Mexico once he gets into the GOM?

[NEXRAD]

maybe nhc would assess that tomorrow...guess it is still too far out timewise and the current track might only bring some ts gusts in squalls...which we have seen on or off almost weekly for the past month being on the periphery of one ts or another

If the storm moves out over water longer on this WNW motion and misses north of the forecast points, is there a posibility of TS warnings for Miami-Dade and even Broward?

From my reads of the NWSFO Miami forecast discussions earlier today it seems like the NWS is prepared to issue short(er) fused wind advisories as necessary based on Ike's current forecast track. To me, at least, that suggests watches or warnings won't be hoisted for areas north of the Keys since the NWSFO's usually coordinate with the NHC in watch/warning issuance. That said, if Ike were to stay noticeably right of the forecast track, such watches/warnings may of course be issued. With a major hurricane being nearby, it's important for people across all of South Florida to monitor the storm.

- Jay

[ObsessedMiami]

maybe nhc would assess that tomorrow...guess it is still too far out timewise and the current track might only bring some ts gusts in squalls...which we have seen on or off almost weekly for the past month being on the periphery of one ts or another

If the storm moves out over water longer on this WNW motion and misses north of the forecast points, is there a posibility of TS warnings for Miami-Dade and even Broward?

Thanks for the reply... I ask because, as it stands now, the point forecast for Kendale Lakes for Tuesday says " Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. East wind 26 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%."

31 MPH sustained is flirting with minimal TS, I believe and a strengthening more northward track would only increase that.

[tolakram]

Cuba Terrain





Google Maps:
http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UT ... 51&t=p&z=9

[NEXRAD]

Mpic,

There are multiple ridges from the upper level data I've seen. If the troughing is not strong enough to cause a break in the ridges' continuity, then Ike could certainly head towards Mexico in the long-term. In fact, some of the afternoon model outputs have shown just that.

- Jay

[Weatherfreak14]

Cuba Terrain





Google Maps:
http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UT ... 51&t=p&z=9

Looks like it will be missing the worst of the mountains now.

[KWT]

Looks like the rest of Cuba over Ike's track is pretty flat, though without any moisture intake 24-36hrs overland is going to really hurt Ike's inner core unless it stays due west and gets a breif taste of the Caribbean.

[mpic]

Mpic,

There are multiple ridges from the upper level data I've seen. If the troughing is not strong enough to cause a break in the ridges' continuity, then Ike could certainly head towards Mexico in the long-term. In fact, some of the afternoon model outputs have shown just that.

- Jay

Thanks! I think I'm finally learning something from all these long hours here!

[Lowpressure]

Makes one wonder, if the interaction with the Cuban coast would induce a more WNW direction due to the angle of the coastline moving at a similar angle. I do not think we have a lot of data either way on a Hurricane interacting with an angled coast down here. I know it works somewhat like that in the Carolinas. I am not suggesting it will go wnw from here. Just a concept to ponder.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, its the NAM, but 18Z suggests a path in the Gulf that targets Mexico, possibly.

[jinftl]

now if it appears a landfall is possible in the keys...essentially the very right side of the 3-day cone track...i can't see how that wouldnt result in at least ts warnings in dade and broward being added monday

such a track with a keys landfall would be unexpected for sure by the public...but arguably it really should not be since that is part of the cone and isn't there equal probability of the storm being anywhere in the cone?

But, let's face it, most folks down here in 'all clear' and 'i guess i have work and school mode' right now

maybe nhc would assess that tomorrow...guess it is still too far out timewise and the current track might only bring some ts gusts in squalls...which we have seen on or off almost weekly for the past month being on the periphery of one ts or another

If the storm moves out over water longer on this WNW motion and misses north of the forecast points, is there a posibility of TS warnings for Miami-Dade and even Broward?

From my reads of the NWSFO Miami forecast discussions earlier today it seems like the NWS is prepared to issue short(er) fused wind advisories as necessary based on Ike's current forecast track. To me, at least, that suggests watches or warnings won't be hoisted for areas north of the Keys since the NWSFO's usually coordinate with the NHC in watch/warning issuance. That said, if Ike were to stay noticeably right of the forecast track, such watches/warnings may of course be issued. With a major hurricane being nearby, it's important for people across all of South Florida to monitor the storm.

- Jay

[Portastorm]

Ok, its the NAM, but 18Z suggests a path in the Gulf that targets Mexico, possibly.

Well Ed, God bless ya. You're doing everything you can to find any model that doesn't say "Texas" for Hurricane Ike. I wish you great luck as I don't want any part of this beast.

[Flakeys]

Can anyone give me an idea of what to expect in the Upper Keys? I've heard everything from Hurricane winds to partly cloudy. Thanks!