ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Well the main thing to watch over the next 48hrs are how far west this gets before lifting slightly more to the north of west type motion and also how well can Ike keep its inner core, if it loses that then its a good 24-48hrs re-building process...

[Dean4Storms]

Ok, its the NAM, but 18Z suggests a path in the Gulf that targets Mexico, possibly.

That is what has me worried now, when the BAMM's, LBAR, NAM models have it headed westward I get worried up here in the Panhandle!

[Canelaw99]

now if it appears a landfall is possible in the keys...essentially the very right side of the 3-day cone track...i can't see how that wouldnt result in at least ts warnings in dade and broward being added monday

such a track with a keys landfall would be unexpected for sure by the public...but arguably it really should not be since that is part of the cone and isn't there equal probability of the storm being anywhere in the cone?

But, let's face it, most folks down here in 'all clear' and 'i guess i have work and school mode' right now

Of course everyone feels in the clear down here. Not one of our local stations (that we saw) provided any break-in coverage of the 5pm advisory. Our best hope of updated info is NBC 6 news at 6...I feel for people here who rely solely on the TV media to get their info because there's not a lot out there right now. I was sure at least one of the stations would come on at 5 to update folks. If Ike goes anywhere near that right side of the cone, a ton of people will be surprised, that's for sure.

[jinftl]

TS conditions mentioned for broward too:


NWS Forecast for: 1 Miles WNW Hollywood FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 4:52 pm EDT Sep 7, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 81. Windy, with a east wind between 26 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph.

Tuesday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. East wind 24 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 80. Windy, with a southeast wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.

If the storm moves out over water longer on this WNW motion and misses north of the forecast points, is there a posibility of TS warnings for Miami-Dade and even Broward?

Thanks for the reply... I ask because, as it stands now, the point forecast for Kendale Lakes for Tuesday says " Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. East wind 26 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%."

31 MPH sustained is flirting with minimal TS, I believe and a strengthening more northward track would only increase that.

[NEXRAD]

now if it appears a landfall is possible in the keys...essentially the very right side of the 3-day cone track...i can't see how that wouldnt result in at least ts warnings in dade and broward being added monday

such a track with a keys landfall would be unexpected for sure by the public...but arguably it really should not be since that is part of the cone and isn't there equal probability of the storm being anywhere in the cone?

But, let's face it, most folks down here in 'all clear' and 'i guess i have work and school mode' right now

The storm may end up, statistically, anywhere within the cone of error, however the probabilities are greatest that Ike would follow near the central track. This is revealed, too, when looking at the wind probabilities, which show maximum probabilities nearest the center of the path. If the probabilities were equal throughout the cone, then the wind probabilities would be equal too. For example, Key West and Central Cuba are both within the cone of error, yet Central Cuba has a >80% probability of experiencing tropical storm force winds. Key West's probability is around 60%.

- Jay

[KWT]

Ok, its the NAM, but 18Z suggests a path in the Gulf that targets Mexico, possibly.

Good job its rubbish, though its in agreement with the ECM to a fair degree...which isnt as bad...

[ConvergenceZone]

Ok, its the NAM, but 18Z suggests a path in the Gulf that targets Mexico, possibly.

Yep, another Mexico. I bet the other models will be following suit soon....They are starting to sniff out that the ridge is going to be stronger than they thought with no weakness to pull it North, so a westward it will go......The other models will probably start shifting south soon, although it will probably be a gradual shift...

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, its the NAM, but 18Z suggests a path in the Gulf that targets Mexico, possibly.

Didn't the last NAM go into the NE Gulf?

[KWT]

ConvergenceZone, the only model at this time that goes into Mexico...is the NAM...yes the ECM is further south but it tends yo have a left bias, as do most of the other models when it comes to trough systems they tend to be a little to the right of where was expected...I bet Texas for this one, where about I've not even a foggiest clue!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, its the NAM, but 18Z suggests a path in the Gulf that targets Mexico, possibly.

Good job its rubbish, though its in agreement with the ECM to a fair degree...which isnt as bad...

If it doesn't go due West as suggested by the NAM, every wobble Northward, like the one that ended a while ago, brings this closer to whatever passing by in the Westerlies would curve this before Texas.

I'm sure TCs have been in the vicinity of about 24ºN, 60ºW, like Ike was, and I can't remember any ever hitting Texas from out there.

[ConvergenceZone]

Ok, its the NAM, but 18Z suggests a path in the Gulf that targets Mexico, possibly.

Didn't the last NAM go into the NE Gulf?

Yep, it finally woke up....

[latemodel25]

this convinces me at the moment of a definate wsw movement. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

[fasterdisaster]

I would like to renew my wager from the Edouard thread and say I will film myself dancing in a ballerina tutu in downtown Miami if Ike gets to Mexico. (NOT INCLUDING THE YUCATAN ) I said I'd do that if Edouard made it to Louisiana 6 or so hours before landfall when everyone thought he was, and I was right, so I'll give you all a second chance.

[KWT]

If it doesn't go due West as suggested by the NAM, every wobble Northward, like the one that ended a while ago, brings this closer to whatever passing by in the Westerlies would curve this before Texas.

I'm sure TCs have been in the vicinity of about 24ºN, 60ºW, like Ike was, and I can't remember any ever hitting Texas from out there.

Yeah I can't think of many, though I cvan think of one TC that did take a fairly similar track and its not a good one...Galveston 1900 hurricane, a little more northerly through Cuba but general track may not be too different in the end, maybe Ike a little to the south but who knows?

[fci]

now if it appears a landfall is possible in the keys...essentially the very right side of the 3-day cone track...i can't see how that wouldnt result in at least ts warnings in dade and broward being added monday

such a track with a keys landfall would be unexpected for sure by the public...but arguably it really should not be since that is part of the cone and isn't there equal probability of the storm being anywhere in the cone?

But, let's face it, most folks down here in 'all clear' and 'i guess i have work and school mode' right now

Of course everyone feels in the clear down here. Not one of our local stations (that we saw) provided any break-in coverage of the 5pm advisory. Our best hope of updated info is NBC 6 news at 6...I feel for people here who rely solely on the TV media to get their info because there's not a lot out there right now. I was sure at least one of the stations would come on at 5 to update folks. If Ike goes anywhere near that right side of the cone, a ton of people will be surprised, that's for sure.

I'm amused reading what seems to be "concern" about possible TS Watches or Warnings for Dade and/or Broward.
ANd the "ton" of people who will be surprised.
By What???? TS wind gusts????
This after a real threat a couple of days ago that the area might be facing a Cat 3/4 on Tuesday.

Well, Jay (Nexrad) seems to think that there will not be any watches or warnings for the area.
And even "if" there were; BIG DEAL!

Some rain and gusts to 30 or 40 is what we got a couple of nights ago from Hanna without any watches or warnings.
It just does not matter, folks!!

We are talking the same thing we get from afternoon T-storms!
That's it.

For any of you "w"-caters, face it; we are not getting Ike here.
I am thrilled and hope that our luck continues the rest of the season.

I feel for someone in the GOM area who is going to get this storm but as for South Florida; good riddance and pray for whomever is unfortunate enough to feel the wrath of Ike.

[latemodel25]

i think this link provides pretty good accuracy of the movement. pretty much a no brainer..wsw!! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

[Windy]

I would like to renew my wager from the Edouard thread and say I will film myself dancing in a ballerina tutu in downtown Miami if Ike gets to Mexico. (NOT INCLUDING THE YUCATAN ) I said I'd do that if Edouard made it to Louisiana 6 or so hours before landfall when everyone thought he was, and I was right, so I'll give you all a second chance.

Given the uncertainties in long term forecasting, that's actually a pretty scary bet. Unless you WANT to dance in a tutu in public...

[fasterdisaster]

this convinces me at the moment of a definate wsw movement. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

I really can't see it. Unless you meant 12+ hours ago in which case I don't think anyone disagrees with that. On another note, this imagery does a good job showing the current EWRC. I'm somewhat surprised it's this far along the cycle already.

[fasterdisaster]

I would like to renew my wager from the Edouard thread and say I will film myself dancing in a ballerina tutu in downtown Miami if Ike gets to Mexico. (NOT INCLUDING THE YUCATAN ) I said I'd do that if Edouard made it to Louisiana 6 or so hours before landfall when everyone thought he was, and I was right, so I'll give you all a second chance.

Given the uncertainties in long term forecasting, that's actually a pretty scary bet. Unless you WANT to dance in a tutu in public...

DON'T JUDGE ME.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

i think this link provides pretty good accuracy of the movement. pretty much a no brainer..wsw!! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

Nothing lower for a cyclone to do then to ride up the rim of Cuba or Hati. Looks like this one wents to do just that. If it does I expect he will come out a 50 knot tropical storm.