ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Derek Ortt]

that dark spot is NOT the center. The center is to the west of that point

about 6 more hours over land

[Derek Ortt]

looks to be about 18.7N 71.5W

[Ed Mahmoud]

I "defy' you to explain your certainty that reformation absolutely won't happen

Because anti-poleward is against physics. Of course it could reform south under that convection, but I feel since it still shows a strong center on the NHC track that it won't do that and is being guided by a pressure ridge pretty solidly.

You a degreed scientist? Beta (trend poleward of mean steering due to variance in Coriolis effect with increasing distance from the Equator) isn't a guarantee for a system interacting in with a complex landmass.

Edit to re-word- The relative magnitude of the beta affect, from my limited understanding, is small enough that it doesn't guarantee against a shift to the strongest convection, even away from the pole

[Sanibel]

It doesn't take an Einstein to see that the NHC trop point is exactly in the center of that TS "eye" Blown Away showed us.

[lrak]

slip slide'n away

[Ivanhater]

Getting nasty in here tonight..I think some people need to watch the olympics and calm down

[lrak]

why is everyone bickering?

good nite, sleep tight.

[kevin]

looks to be about 18.7N 71.5W

That puts it in the middle of the mountains right Derek? Whats your opinion on the chance of center reformation and do you think this is a system where center relocations will significantly impact track?

[txag2005]

Getting nasty in here tonight..I think some people need to watch the olympics and calm down

I guess the stress is already getting to people.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No point having a discussion, I guess, with an expert who can perfectly interpret nightime IR imagery and knows for certainty, because of physics, what can and can't happen to a tropical system crossing mountainous terrain. Don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand that.

You really should ask the admins to promote you to honorary pro-met status since you know so much.

[Blown Away]

It doesn't take an Einstein to see that the NHC trop point is exactly in the center of that TS "eye" Blown Away showed us.

Yeah, I'm no weather Einstein, that's for sure!

[Ed Mahmoud]

why is everyone bickering?

good nite, sleep tight.

No more bickering. I'll defer to the expert.

[ROCK]

To Ed's credit, I can see where a center relo is probable given the recent flair up south of DR while the old LLC is weakening. You cannot predict these relos after land interaction. Even the NHC acknowledged that. It is plausible......

current steering:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

BTW- I have a hunch as well.... Ed you can pay me later bro....

[Sanibel]

The guiding pressure is probably stronger than any island quirks.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

why is everyone bickering?

good nite, sleep tight.

Because this is only one of the most messed up storms in the last decade. NO clear center, No clear inflow to show where a center could be. Just one big cluster of convection. It is enough to make some ones head go up and down off a table.

[Wthrman13]

I "defy' you to explain your certainty that reformation absolutely won't happen

Because anti-poleward is against physics. Of course it could reform south under that convection, but I feel since it still shows a strong center on the NHC track that it won't do that and is being guided by a pressure ridge pretty solidly.

And what physics are those?

[Wthrman13]

I "defy' you to explain your certainty that reformation absolutely won't happen

Because anti-poleward is against physics. Of course it could reform south under that convection, but I feel since it still shows a strong center on the NHC track that it won't do that and is being guided by a pressure ridge pretty solidly.

You a degreed scientist? Beta (trend poleward of mean steering due to variance in Coriolis effect with increasing distance from the Equator) isn't a guarantee for a system interacting in with a complex landmass.

Edit to re-word- The relative magnitude of the beta affect, from my limited understanding, is small enough that it doesn't guarantee against a shift to the strongest convection, even away from the pole

Right on the money.

EDIT: Of course that doesn't mean the center is actually reforming, just that it is physically possible.

[Steve]

>>Because anti-poleward is against physics. Of course it could reform south under that convection, but I feel since it still shows a strong center on the NHC track that it won't do that and is being guided by a pressure ridge pretty solidly.

But that's not reliable. How many times have you seen a strong (or weak) storm interact with land and get pulled in a way you didn't expect? Isidore (I think) hooked toward Houma. Many systems have been drawn down SW or S in the Bay of Campeche. When you are dealing with higher terrain and certainly a weaker circulation, you never know how that's going to roll into the mountains or terrain. *edit to fix* You might generally assume a northerly richochet off of something spinning counter clockwise moving in from the east.


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Also, not totally sure - even though the above is 1:30 old, that the white circle off the south of Hispaniola doesn't represent a competing or different layer spin.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm glad to hear I wasn't speaking out my rear. I read a lot, on the internet, at the library, my wife gives me AMS monographs sometimes, but some things I don't understand, 'specially since my degree is in engineering, not meteorology.


Still trying to figure out, for example, how shear can cause subsidence/warming and increasing stability in the upshear side of a tropical system. I've read enough to sort of understand upward and downward motion regions of jets, but for upper winds aimed straight at a system, not sure how that works.


My latest conundrum.


I don't play often, but if I ever win the Powerball, I may go back to college for a degree in meteorology.

Edit- my wife actually only gave me one AMS monograph, Kocin and Uccellinni's Northeast snowstorm book, but darned, was that informative. Our first Valentine's Day, she surpised me with Alan Jackson tix at the rodeo, even though she isn't a country fan. But that Kocin snowstorm book gets read a lot in the bathroom, especially during the winter months.

[fci]

If that little dark spot above the first forecast point is the center than it has moved a little north of the track so far.

That "dark spot" is the top arc of the "eye" being uncovered by clouds. It's headed right down the money on the NHC trop points and is in no way reforming to the south.

I think you maybe incorrectly using the term "eye" here.