ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sabanic]

Pretty clear here, overlay the Lat/Long and you can watch it ride just north of due west just north of 21.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-wv.html

If it goes just north of west through Cuba...It will spend about 2 or so days over Cuba. I don't expect more then a 50 knot tropical storms once it gets off. After that it won't have a innercore and will take at least 36 hours to rebuild.

Georges never came back to what he once was after rolling over Cuba. Hell, Isidore after going over the flat Yucatan was a corest system.

Hate to keep repeating myself, but Frederic in '79 was able to get to Cat 3 after traveling almost the entire length of Cuba.

[KWT]

Hate to keep repeating myself, but Frederic in '79 was able to get to Cat 3 after traveling almost the entire length of Cuba.

Frederic didn't have an inner core when it was over land, remember most of the time it was a TD and they don't have cores, unlike major hurricanes like Ike and actually stayed mainly south of Cuba along similar waters to Fay.

[Sabanic]

You're right KWT. Thx

[fasterdisaster]

He'll have 4 days in the Gulf of Mexico, plenty of time to again become very dangerous.

[tolakram]

[cpdaman]

when looking at the coast of cuba the best thing for IKE to remain strong would be to have another WNW wobble in the next hour or two and then go due west thru cuba , that will take him out near 21.6 / 78.5 in a shorter amount of time.

[TideJoe]

To be fair Matt though Georges hit like 7 islands on the way through...and still hit as a top end 2 like Gustav so it was still powerful.

As for Ike, indeed it'll lack an inner core out of Cuba but we shall have to wait and see how long it takes, I think it would take about 24-36hrs to rebuild that inner core when it comes out of Cuba, the track is key because if it goes further west it has enough time to restrengthen upto hurricane strength with space to spare.

Frederick ran into nearly every island in Caribbean and still landfalled as a 130mph Cat 3 in Dauphin Island, AL.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Frederic

[Windtalker1]

I was just looking at the National Data Buoy Center for the Gulf of Mexico and it seems to me that the 7 reporting stations are showing falling pressure with the stalled front to the North. Maybe I not reading this correctly but can an upper level low form here changing the track of Ike?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... E&dist=250

[gboudx]

Update from jeff.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1817129#p1817129

[Dean4Storms]

Update from jeff.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1817129#p1817129

NOGAPS is also with the HWRF, just to be accurate.

[jlauderdal]

Update from jeff.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1817129#p1817129

NOGAPS is also with the HWRF, just to be accurate.

general ike gives respect to the navy nogaps

[ConvergenceZone]

Update from jeff.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1817129#p1817129

The scariest part of what Jeff Masters says is the following

"Also of note...Ike will become a very large hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico likely expanding in size to nearly the entire Gulf as the interaction with Cuba broadens the wind field. "

[Sabanic]

Update from jeff.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1817129#p1817129

Is that Jeff Masters? Just wondering because in his blog just a little while ago JM said that he was not sure where Ike would make landfall.

[perk]

Update from jeff.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1817129#p1817129

The scariest part of what Jeff Masters says is the following

"Also of note...Ike will become a very large hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico likely expanding in size to nearly the entire Gulf as the interaction with Cuba broadens the wind field. "

I think you have the wrong Jeff.

[robbielyn]

why is that scary those are ts winds not hurricane winds maybe strong rip currents though.

[stormhorn]

why is that scary those are ts winds not hurricane winds maybe strong rip currents though.

A hurricane that spans the entire Gulf is one Big A** hurricane

[tolakram]

[robbielyn]

why is that scary those are ts winds not hurricane winds maybe strong rip currents though.

A hurricane that spans the entire Gulf is one Big A** hurricane

yeah i know but the majority of the wind field will still be ts winds. I just dont think this will be a real big deal to the e gom.

[stormhorn]

Hopefully Not! Hubby is going away for 3 weeks right before he enters the Gulf. That will leave a whole lot of work for me if it gets Ugly!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Update from jeff.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1817129#p1817129

The scariest part of what Jeff Masters says is the following

"Also of note...Ike will become a very large hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico likely expanding in size to nearly the entire Gulf as the interaction with Cuba broadens the wind field. "

I think you have the wrong Jeff.

oops my mistake. I guess I just get so use to his reports being posted here