ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO will be out within a few mins...The Friday afternoon run had Fay go over the west side of the state.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's too soon to tell...I'm not into the guessing game yet. Need another couple of days to see where this one may wind up when all is said and done. Right now I'm leaning E of Mobile, AL, but, as said, it's really too early to even guess.

[Steve]

Euro (look at the 850/slp Vorticity) makes a hard right and hits around Dade County.

Steve

[Wthrman13]

I'm glad to hear I wasn't speaking out my rear. I read a lot, on the internet, at the library, my wife gives me AMS monographs sometimes, but some things I don't understand, 'specially since my degree is in engineering, not meteorology.


Still trying to figure out, for example, how shear can cause subsidence/warming and increasing stability in the upshear side of a tropical system. I've read enough to sort of understand upward and downward motion regions of jets, but for upper winds aimed straight at a system, not sure how that works.


My latest conundrum.


I don't play often, but if I ever win the Powerball, I may go back to college for a degree in meteorology.

Edit- my wife actually only gave me one AMS monograph, Kocin and Uccellinni's Northeast snowstorm book, but darned, was that informative. Our first Valentine's Day, she surpised me with Alan Jackson tix at the rodeo, even though she isn't a country fan. But that Kocin snowstorm book gets read a lot in the bathroom, especially during the winter months.

Subsidence occurs on the upshear side of a TC because of the interaction of the circulation with the increasing winds with height. You have greater convergence of the two flows as you go up in height, because of increasing environmental wind speed with height, with an overall net convergence aloft, which forces downward motion. That's a simplified explanation, and to be frank, I'm not an expert in this area, as my research is mostly focused on continental severe convection. The shear also will tend to tilt the TC vortex, disrupting the warm core, and contributing to weakening, of course.

I've heard that the Kocin book is great, but I've never read it myself. I may have to pick up a copy...

[lbvbl]

So what would be the reasoning behind these Eastern tracks? Are they expecting the HPR thats moving E to weaken?

[JonathanBelles]

Based on current NHC track:

[jinftl]

Based on data below from 11pm advisory, way too soon to rule out any part of florida from being effected by fay...

TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 5(29)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) 5(31)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 13(30) 3(33)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 12(37) 2(39)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 28(34) 12(46) 2(48)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 2(18)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 12(43) 3(46)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) 1(20)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 16(39) 4(43)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 17(35) 4(39)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 18(32) 5(37)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) 6(33)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 8(29)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 7(21)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 8(24)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[SouthFloridawx]

AL, 06, 2008081606, , BEST, 0, 187N, 714W, 40, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 75, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FAY, D,

[PanAmMIA]

Found this a few minutes ago on the SFWMD site. Looks like they're keeping with a "slightly" more eastward track (insert caveat)... for now.

[RL3AO]

Thats the NHCs track.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC appears to be near 18.8/71.8 appears to be the LLC. With most of the convection to the east and south of it you can now kind of see it.

[KWT]

WEll Fay is still producin some powerful convection though the system does look a little lop sided now with convection mainly on the southern side, wouldn't surprise me if the center relocated southwards.

[baitism]

WEll Fay is still producin some powerful convection though the system does look a little lop sided now with convection mainly on the southern side, wouldn't surprise me if the center relocated southwards.

I seem to have lost track of the center as well. This might support your thinking.

[Cyclenall]

WEll Fay is still producin some powerful convection though the system does look a little lop sided now with convection mainly on the southern side, wouldn't surprise me if the center relocated southwards.

I just trying to figure out if recon did find that to be the case. I did read that a MLC was found in the southern convection. More details are needed.

[KWT]

Yeah, saying that the main LLC should emerge into the water sooner rather then later so that probably will become the dominant one again I'd suspect once out into the water.

[carolina_73]

WEll Fay is still producin some powerful convection though the system does look a little lop sided now with convection mainly on the southern side, wouldn't surprise me if the center relocated southwards.

I just trying to figure out if recon did find that to be the case. I did read that a MLC was found in the southern convection. More details are needed.

They found West winds in the MLC. They couldn't get low enough to check it out. It is lop sided. You can tell it has weakened a little as well. The NW convection has diminished alot.

[carolina_73]

I personally think this area looks kind of interesting...

[KWT]

Well it is interesting to see at least a MLC down there but as we have seen the LLC has been very tough to get rid off, to the point where its not allowed the MLC before to bring down its on LLC before.

carolina_73, thats close to where the MLC was found.

[Chacor]

Now expecting 80 kts.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

[KWT]

80kts is a pretty powerful cat-1, thats not to be underestimated, not much weaker than Dolly either for that matter really if it gets upto that strength.