ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ColdFusion]

Not so sure this runs the spine, thinking maybe closer to the N coast.

Aren't those the same thing?

My take was that the spine was right down the middle of the island. Narrow island so yeah, its close anyway.

[Javlin]

Gustav is already at the next Lat. point of 17.9 which was slated for 00z(utc) Friday the long.for 00z is 77.1 which sounds about right.



http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[HURAKAN]

Gustav and Fay seem to be unrelated. Fay was scared of the water, and Gustav loves the water.

[Sanibel]

Radar puts it right over the spine of Jamaica.


KWT: Should get ground readings on pressure and winds.

[jasons2k]

Right on the tip and will probably run the length. What are the odds. Let's hope this significantly reduces the strength of Gus once he makes it into the GOM.

This won't have the same impact as Hispaniola and in the end it won't matter. There will be plenty of time for Gustav to recover.

Perhaps, but the mountains on that side of Jamaica are quite tall.

Stoddards peak is over 2100m (6888 ft).

edit:

http://indexmundi.com/zm/jm/134.htm
4938' not sure what is correct

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

I'm well aware of that. The impacts of Jamaica will be short-lived. Even with the posts that will undoubtely flood the board in about 6 hours about how 'sick' Gustav looks, I have no doubts at all that this will be a major hurricane. Patience.

[KWT]

Very good point Sanibel, also recon should still get a good idea of winds on the strongest side of the system before it goes totally inland.

Big convective burst over the northern eyewall is not a good thing for the people near the coast, probably going to get hurricane force winds out this either through gusts or sustained.

[cycloneye]

Even with the posts that will undoubtely flood the board in about 6 hours about how 'sick' Gustav looks, I have no doubts at all that this will be a major hurricane. Patience.

Look what happened yesterday when many Gustav dead posts were made,and what happened?......

[tolakram]

I'm well aware of that. The impacts of Jamaica will be short-lived. Even with the posts that will undoubtely flood the board in about 6 hours about how 'sick' Gustav looks, I have no doubts at all that this will be a major hurricane. Patience.

I am showing patience, it was a valid comment and I did not predict a demise, but a delay in intensity.

Nice visible shot, look at those tops.

[KWT]

Big bursts in the northern eyewall indeed, though the northern quadrant actually doesn't look at all impressive but this is a small cyclone so that doesn't really matter with such a tiny inner core.

cycloneye, as I said last night its going over some super warm heat content, never under-estimate what systems can do under these waters!

[Category 5]

I'm well aware of that. The impacts of Jamaica will be short-lived. Even with the posts that will undoubtely flood the board in about 6 hours about how 'sick' Gustav looks, I have no doubts at all that this will be a major hurricane. Patience.

No, now thats passing over the mountains it's gonna weaken and have a hard time recovering. Looks like no major Hurricane this time, this year is boring, season cancel.

Landfall occuring it appears. Wouldn't be surprised to see Hurricane force winds in that northern quad, especially with this new burst.

[Texashawk]

Question: Can 'small' structure storms get appreciably larger when they intensify a great deal or do they tend to be the same general size regardless of strength?

[otowntiger]

Quote: "I'm well aware of that. The impacts of Jamaica will be short-lived. Even with the posts that will undoubtely flood the board in about 6 hours about how 'sick' Gustav looks, I have no doubts at all that this will be a major hurricane. Patience."
[/quote]

Hmm...Interesting use of the word 'patience'. One would apply that kind of a comment to people who were hoping for this thing to take off. Maybe the folks that will talk of how he's being ripped apart by land and it looks dead, maybe they are being wishful. A better admonishment might have been 'don't get your hopes up.'

[wxman57]

A word of caution from one of my clients:

[KWT]

Oh yeah I think its nearly certain that the coast would be getting hurricane force gusts and horrid rains from that bursting thats going on in the eyewall right now. It probably won't weaken much till central part of the island when the mountions do get a little taller but don't expect it to get nearly as weak as it was when it went over Haiti.

[KatDaddy]

From Jeff Masters at WeatherUnderground

The track forecast for Gustav
The latest 6Z (2 am EDT) model runs show a significant shift westward in Gustav's track, thanks to the southwestward motion and center re-formation of the storm. Gustav may now pass through the narrow Yucatan Channel, and not be significantly weakened by Cuba.

By Saturday, a trough of low pressure moving across the Midwest U.S. should weaken the ridge, and allow Gustav to turn north across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. The final landfall location of Gustav depends on the strength and speed of the trough. This trough may not be strong enough to pull Gustav to a landfall in the central Gulf Coast. Instead, a blocking ridge of high pressure may build in over the southern U.S. by Monday, forcing Gustav to move slowly westward towards Texas. The ridge will at least slow Gustav down, and the long term fate of Gustav remains highly uncertain.

[RL3AO]

Question: Can 'small' structure storms get appreciably larger when they intensify a great deal or do they tend to be the same general size regardless of strength?

Winds usually expand after an eyewall replacement cycle.

[pablolopez26]

This trough may not be strong enough to pull Gustav to a landfall in the central Gulf Coast. Instead, a blocking ridge of high pressure may build in over the southern U.S. by Monday, forcing Gustav to move slowly westward towards Texas. The ridge will at least slow Gustav down, and the long term fate of Gustav remains highly uncertain.

I think anybody in the cone should be getting ready for Gustav.

I still think that Gustav will make a final landfall on the Tx/La border.

[mutley]

Even with the posts that will undoubtely flood the board in about 6 hours about how 'sick' Gustav looks, I have no doubts at all that this will be a major hurricane. Patience.

Look what happened yesterday when many Gustav dead posts were made,and what happened?......

Surely they have learned their lesson, and it won't happen this time...right?

[Sabanic]

This trough may not be strong enough to pull Gustav to a landfall in the central Gulf Coast. Instead, a blocking ridge of high pressure may build in over the southern U.S. by Monday, forcing Gustav to move slowly westward towards Texas. The ridge will at least slow Gustav down, and the long term fate of Gustav remains highly uncertain.

I think anybody in the cone should be getting ready for Gustav.

I still think that Gustav will make a final landfall on the Tx/La border.

I think it will be much closer to NOLA, and maybe the MS coast

[Brent]

A word of caution from one of my clients:

LOL!