ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Category 5]

Gustav is a Hurricane, just not officially.

I'd expect a TCU or Special advisory when they see the recon data.

[crazycajuncane]

Went to Lowe's this morning to stock up, it was pretty crowded with people buying up plywood, water, generators, etc. EVERYONE is talking about the storm everywhere you go around here, which is good since people are taking it very seriously. I will be staying put no matter what as I'm not in a flood zone and far enough inland to be safe from surge and have a brick house. We already have relatives from New Iberia and Morgan City coming over Sunday unless things change drastically so here we go I guess... .

Yea it's getting a bit hectic. I am prepared, but not nearly freaking out as some are. I am serious when I say some people are predicting Armageddon lol.

[Dean4Storms]

Matter of fact looking at the 12Z run of the GFS it doesn't even have a closed low where Gus is concerned from the NW Carib. to the Central GOM.

[Buck]

I'd expect a TCU or Special advisory when they see the recon data.

I'll support that.

[Dean4Storms]

Thats just it, Gus is small right now, but according to the GFS then it stays that way, I'm not buying it.

Well I agree it won't. But no global is going to pick up on the dynamics that change that. The GFDL and HWRF will be out momentarily, they're the better guide.

Exactly, that is what I'm saying. Better to give more weight to those two of the 3 models in this situation.

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

[Tampa DMB Fan]

Florida is looking to be in the clear for Gustav?

[Air Force Met]

No good feelings here today guys....I am prepared but lots say "it's not coming here, the weather channel said Louisiana..."

I'm afraid the GFS will be right....

Not sure if the GFS will be right...would be surprised...but the 12Z HWRF now showing a slowing at the LA coast with a slight bend back to the NW at the end. Extrapolated movement at the end brings it to LCH.

[Frank2]

There still seems to be a decoupling of the LLC and MLC, per this loop (as Derek noted yesterday at this time):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Sabanic]

Matter of fact looking at the 12Z run of the GFS it doesn't even have a closed low where Gus is concerned from the NW Carib. to the Central GOM.

Sounds like it is not altogether on Gus. That would make it's runs less verifiable for now.

[soonertwister]

Gustav is a Hurricane, just not officially.

I'd expect a TCU or Special advisory when they see the recon data.

I agree. Gustav is looking very much like a hurricane again.

[Dean4Storms]

Matter of fact looking at the 12Z run of the GFS it doesn't even have a closed low where Gus is concerned from the NW Carib. to the Central GOM.

Sounds like it is not altogether on Gus. That would make it's runs less verifiable for now.

Yep, there is no way it has the right forecast running with a open low pressure area.

[HouTXmetro]

No good feelings here today guys....I am prepared but lots say "it's not coming here, the weather channel said Louisiana..."

I'm afraid the GFS will be right....

Not sure if the GFS will be right...would be surprised...but the 12Z HWRF now showing a slowing at the LA coast with a slight bend back to the NW at the end. Extrapolated movement at the end brings it to LCH.

NOGAPS also shows a W bend it's track. Maybe they are on to something. Timing will be key. I will ALSO add that the GFDL was discounted Yesterday by the NHC for being too fast. It's still faster now but just alof further East.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like Gus maybe moving around the south side of the island or could mis it just to the south of the coast altogether.

[Category 5]

There still seems to be a decoupling of the LLC and MLC, per this loop (as Derek noted yesterday at this time):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Wha? I see no such thing on that loop.

[HouTXmetro]

Matter of fact looking at the 12Z run of the GFS it doesn't even have a closed low where Gus is concerned from the NW Carib. to the Central GOM.

Sounds like it is not altogether on Gus. That would make it's runs less verifiable for now.

Yep, there is no way it has the right forecast running with a open low pressure area.

Didn't we go through this last year with Dean? GFS had the right track but off on intensity big. I will also add that if Jamaica does another number on Gustav, in the short term the GFS will be right.

[Brent]

There still seems to be a decoupling of the LLC and MLC, per this loop (as Derek noted yesterday at this time):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Wha? I see no such thing on that loop.

Me either. The storm looks very well organized. Can we stop with the dead posts?

[Frank2]

Do any of the meteorologists here notice what I'm referring to - not a "dead" post, but, a legitimate question...

Frank

[Dean4Storms]

Dang, do we got enough Recon planes for all that could be on the table here soon????

[vaffie]

No good feelings here today guys....I am prepared but lots say "it's not coming here, the weather channel said Louisiana..."

I'm afraid the GFS will be right....

Not sure if the GFS will be right...would be surprised...but the 12Z HWRF now showing a slowing at the LA coast with a slight bend back to the NW at the end. Extrapolated movement at the end brings it to LCH.

NOGAPS also shows a W bend it's track. Maybe they are on to something. Timing will be key. I will ALSO add that the GFDL was discounted Yesterday by the NHC for being too fast. It's still faster now but just alof further East.

It doesn't mean much--especially because the run is not focused on Gustav, it's focused on Hanna, but the latest GFDL run of Hanna shows Gustav doing the same as the others--it slows down as it approaches (SE Louisiana) and then curves to the west just off the coast. Curious.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation