ATL: IKE Discussion

[mvtrucking]

Seems to be moving just south of west again.

I believe it appears that way because of the way the Cuban coast slants towards the NE. Gives the illusion of a SW
movement. JMO..

[TampaFl]

8:00pm position:

[cycloneye]

Wobble wars again?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wobble wars again?

LOL. Wait till he gets Clobbered in cuba and there is no eye to watch wabble..Then what?

[HurricaneHunter914]

I don't know, if this makes it into the Carib, I think it has Mexico written all over it.... I don't really see anything that's going to pull it North if it makes it that far south.

True, but right now none of the models are trending toward Mexico tonight. The track could even adjust to the right at 11pm.

[ConvergenceZone]

now, that the eyewall is coming onshore, the next question is, how long will it go west before it makes the turn? It doesn't have a large block of land to cross before has to turn to avoid the carib...

[caneman]

Wobble wars again?

LOL. Wait till he gets Clobbered in cuba and there is no eye to watch wabble..Then what?

then we can speculate as to where the LLC is and where it will come off at.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wao!

The outtereye is covering a much much larger area then the inner eye would of covered, so a much larger area is getting slamed. But on the other hand this storm is going to make landfall with its shield down more or less. This storm could of not choosen a worst time to go through a EWRC. This thing will weaken very fast over land now.

You know, I dont think it will weaken that fast due to its erc. The fact that its going through an erc right now suggests that the core is becoming looser. Without a well developed inner core, a storm will not take as much of a beating. Now, this suggests that the storm will weaken quite a bit, but will likely bottom out and maintain the rest of the way, assuming shear and dry air dont make it to the system, which neither is expected to. For this reason, I dont believe this will weaken to much less than a cat1 hurricane. Does my theory make sense?

[cycloneye]

Are there going to be missions while Ike tracks over Cuba? I know the gulfstream jet will fly but I imagine the others not.

[jasons2k]

Lets just hope Ike's central core is disrupted and he won't recover to a major once back over the GOM......MGC

Unfortunately, I don't think that will matter a whole lot. In all likelihood, if this rides up the spine of Cuba, this will be a much weakened TS when Ike emerges back into the GOM. There will be a bunch of posts about how crappy it looks, etc. Just wait

Fast forward to Wednesday and the setup will be quite conducive for this to re-intensify, probably back into a large, major hurricane in the Gulf. There just isn't anything yet to indicate this will be Gustav II, struggling the whole way. The wild card will be dry air as it gets close to LF on the Texas coast, but if it's already a large Cat 3/4 hurricane it'll be too late to pevent a big surge along the coast.

Just my amateur $.02.

[Recurve]

Looks like Ike's second landfall is about to happen. Now the questions will be answered. If the land interaction takes care of a few categories, even if it heads more northwest than anticipated, the Keys will not have a major hurricane on their doorstep.

[Sabanic]

Lets just hope Ike's central core is disrupted and he won't recover to a major once back over the GOM......MGC

Unfortunately, I don't think that will matter a whole lot. In all likelihood, if this rides up the spine of Cuba, this will be a much weakened TS when Ike emerges back into the GOM. There will be a bunch of posts about how crappy it looks, etc. Just wait

Fast forward to Wednesday and the setup will be quite conducive for this to re-intensify, probably back into a large, major hurricane in the Gulf. There just isn't anything yet to indicate this will be Gustav II, struggling the whole way. The wild card will be dry air as it gets close to LF on the Texas coast, but if it's already a large Cat 3/4 hurricane it'll be too late to pevent a big surge along the coast.

Just my amateur $.02.

No doubt from you jason as to where Ike will end up huh?

[physicx07]

Even though it may be foolhardy to issue a forecast for specific landfall point in the U.S. right now, is the forecast contest still open?

[Texas Snowman]

If it is, I'm saying SW of Galveston as a strong 3/borderline 4 next Sat. a.m.

Perhaps with strong 4 surge.

[SouthFLTropics]

It appears that the towns of Banes and Los Angeles (Cuba, not California) are about to take it on the chin! God help them down there. I just went on Google Earth and the immediate coastline looks to be fairly flat. Could be some significant storm surge in those areas.

SFT

[Texas Snowman]

Just noticed Lowell's forecasted track in EPAC - wonder if that could eventually have some influence on Ike's movement?

[jasons2k]

Lets just hope Ike's central core is disrupted and he won't recover to a major once back over the GOM......MGC

Unfortunately, I don't think that will matter a whole lot. In all likelihood, if this rides up the spine of Cuba, this will be a much weakened TS when Ike emerges back into the GOM. There will be a bunch of posts about how crappy it looks, etc. Just wait

Fast forward to Wednesday and the setup will be quite conducive for this to re-intensify, probably back into a large, major hurricane in the Gulf. There just isn't anything yet to indicate this will be Gustav II, struggling the whole way. The wild card will be dry air as it gets close to LF on the Texas coast, but if it's already a large Cat 3/4 hurricane it'll be too late to pevent a big surge along the coast.

Just my amateur $.02.

No doubt from you jason as to where Ike will end up huh?

I made my 1st call on page 222. Corpus to Sabine Pass. I'm not counting the call a few days ago "Tampico to Tampa" as a "call" - that was a joke. This isn't a joke unfortunately...

[fasterdisaster]

If it is going through an ERC it will weaken slower as it will be trying to strengthen inland.

[HURAKAN]

Hell on Earth.

[pojo]

Are there going to be missions while Ike tracks over Cuba? I know the gulfstream jet will fly but I imagine the others not.

maybe/ maybe not... it depends if cuba will give us clearance....