ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Frank2]

KWT,

Thanks for that help from the other side of the ocean - I'm at work, so, don't have the time to look that closely...

Frank

[Javlin]

It doesn't mean much--especially because the run is not focused on Gustav, it's focused on Hanna, but the latest GFDL run of Hanna shows Gustav doing the same as the others--it slows down as it approaches (SE Louisiana) and then curves to the west just off the coast. Curious.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

For some reason that link just brings up a blank page for me and does nothing.

just started working for me a moment ago

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like Gustav is north of the last TF points, he's clearly seen on the GOM IR now -- along with the newest blob in the BOC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[hsvwx]

The CMC has been the worst of the flip floppers going from Texas to Louisiana to the west coast of Florida and now back to Alabama. Kind of hard to put any trust into that model.

[BigA]

Cool, check out the exploding cloud tops near the center in this animation
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Truly beautiful..but deadly. Gustav is deepening as it makes landfall, and that tends to make wind impacts somewhat more severe. Luckily it is "just" a high end TS/low end Cat 1

[mutley]

Cool, check out the exploding cloud tops near the center in this animation
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

That convection is really rockin down there!

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFDL hits AL/MS line, say goodbye to Mobile if it comes true!

[Sabanic]

The CMC has been the worst of the flip floppers going from Texas to Louisiana to the west coast of Florida and now back to Alabama. Kind of hard to put any trust into that model.

hsvwx what is your opinion of the GFDL?

[tolakram]

Is Kingston reporting 980mb? I never remember how to read the pressure off these observations.

[Dean4Storms]

It doesn't mean much--especially because the run is not focused on Gustav, it's focused on Hanna, but the latest GFDL run of Hanna shows Gustav doing the same as the others--it slows down as it approaches (SE Louisiana) and then curves to the west just off the coast. Curious.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

For some reason that link just brings up a blank page for me and does nothing.

just started working for me a moment ago

Because it becomes just like the GFS, the resolution is not picking up the true depth of Gustav.

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Best Track mantains Gustav as a 60 kt Tropical Storm.

AL, 07, 2008082818, , BEST, 0, 180N, 762W, 60, 983, TS,

[Category 5]

Can't believe it's held at 60kts.

[caribepr]

If this has been posted already, mea culpa, but thought I'd put up the link to the live radio from
Jamaica...

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

[hsvwx]

Is Kingston reporting 980mb? I never remember how to read the pressure off these observations.

Nope...they are reporting 998.0. Gotta love metar readings!

[Dean4Storms]

Its like little Gus got mad at Haiti last night, picked up his marbles and is now headed home.

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye its lifted back to due west a bit faster then the NHC was expecting and hence why its going to travel over the spine of the island rather then just to its south.

Convection really bursting over the centerin a big way, northern eyewall is bursting big time, would imagine there will be some beastly rainfalls in E.Jamaica.

[Cyclenall]

The CMC has been the worst of the flip floppers going from Texas to Louisiana to the west coast of Florida and now back to Alabama. Kind of hard to put any trust into that model.

What do Canadians know about the Tropics anyway? LOL!

We know more then you think about the tropics...enough to post outdated NHC forecasts on National weather networks here .

When it had the faint eye feature hours back, it could have been a hurricane and maybe it's still one now but boarderline moreso.

[tolakram]

Is Kingston reporting 980mb? I never remember how to read the pressure off these observations.

Nope...they are reporting 998.0. Gotta love metar readings!

Ah, suddenly they all make sense! Thanks.

[ColdFusion]

If this has been posted already, mea culpa, but thought I'd put up the link to the live radio from
Jamaica...

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

Thanks for the link, but whatever they are talking about right now - it's not the storm. Guess they are not too concerned at the moment.

EDIT: Ok they are now, he just had a rambler on the phone.

[KWT]

Can't believe it's held at 60kts.

Well its close either way but I think the NHC thinking is probably its borderline and its overland now just so its winds probably are closer to 60kts now again.