ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With the ill defined LLC here is what I think. Remember the TCHP under this system on the northern side of the Yucatan is very low. So don't expect much strengthing for another 24 hours.

Here is my percentages.

Tropical depression 100%
Tropical storm 100%
Hurricane 70%-I believe things can change also that the LLC is ill defined and could end up never becoming more organized Claudette 2003 like system, Erin 2007, Fay 2002. But anyways I expect with the upper level environment being so favorable that if it doe's develop a "LLC" finally that can stand on its own then I expect this to become a strong storm.

Cat2 35%
Cat3 15%
Cat4 5%
Cat5 1% NOT IMPOSSIBLE!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Yeah, but when they were scheduled to leave (0315, or about 15 mins after the 11pm package) the centre fix was still well offland. Unless they left and turned back.

There was never any Obs from them or anything so I don't think they took off at all. I am not sure why they didn't go but they should have. They Should send another flight out as soon as it emerges into the GoM

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

When is the next official advisory 6am (eastern time) correct?

I think they are going to be sending a plane out every 3 hours very shortly for Dolly so they are not caught with their pants down as this system is most likely to explode in the GoM.

5 am. And the most they will go is one fix every six hours. What they might do is get each plane to do two fixes, so that each plane stays out for around 12 hours, and by the time one plane starts to leave the other would be well on its way.

No they will be starting 3 hour fixes I believe Tuesday: 5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK; BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES 22/1500Z.

[Chacor]

When is the next official advisory 6am (eastern time) correct?

I think they are going to be sending a plane out every 3 hours very shortly for Dolly so they are not caught with their pants down as this system is most likely to explode in the GoM.

5 am. And the most they will go is one fix every six hours. What they might do is get each plane to do two fixes, so that each plane stays out for around 12 hours, and by the time one plane starts to leave the other would be well on its way.

No they will be starting 3 hour fixes I believe Tuesday: 5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK; BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES 22/1500Z.

Ah, okay, I missed that.

[Mecklenburg]

the most i could expect from dolly is a weak cat. 3 storm... but then again, i could be wrong...

[Mecklenburg]

by the way, what are the water temps ahead of dolly, would they support a rapid intensification?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

However further reading what you said you might be correct that each flight will do 2 fixes. Theres nothing there saying that there will be a new flight every 3 hours just that they will get a fix every 3 hours. I am not sure how that works.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

by the way, what are the water temps ahead of dolly, would they support a rapid intensification?

Yes they are more then warm enough for a RIC. The whole gulf can support atleast a cat 4 with a good part being able to support up to a 150kt cat 5

[paintplaye]

if this system doesn't star moving more north then this could easily be a mexico hit.

[AJC3]

if this system doesn't star moving more north then this could easily be a mexico hit.

You mean another Mexico hit.

[paintplaye]

if this system doesn't star moving more north then this could easily be a mexico hit.

You mean another Mexico hit.

Haha yea. What do you think? I mean it looks to be moving west don't you think? Do you think it will turn more north? Argh this storm is a tricky one.

[AJC3]

Haha yea. What do you think? I mean it looks to be moving west don't you think? Do you think it will turn more north? Argh this storm is a tricky one.

I really don't have the data or high-res model progs at hand right now to do any kind of an really good analysis/forecast. Based on radar, the broad vort center appears to be moving generally WNW at the time. I think it all depends on just how much the mid level ridge weakens over the western GOMEX in a couple days - a point that has been already made by others.

[paintplaye]

Haha yea. What do you think? I mean it looks to be moving west don't you think? Do you think it will turn more north? Argh this storm is a tricky one.

I really don't have the data or high-res model progs at hand right now to do any kind of an really good analysis/forecast. Based on radar, the broad vort center appears to be moving generally WNW at the time. I think it all depends on just how much the mid level ridge weakens over the western GOMEX in a couple days - a point that has been already made by others.

Ok thank you. well i am going to head off to bed and check up in the morning on this thing. Good luck.

[Chacor]

Cancun reported calm winds 10 minutes ago.

METAR MMUN 210748Z 00000KT 5SM RA BKN010CB OVC100 24/23 A2978
RMK 60015 8/36/=

[AJC3]

Cancun reported calm winds 10 minutes ago.

METAR MMUN 210748Z 00000KT 5SM RA BKN010CB OVC100 24/23 A2978
RMK 60015 8/36/=

Yeah...broad surface center...or what's left of it. Based on radar it seems to be still mostly over land...near Canamui best as I can tell.

[KWT]

Well if anything Dolly looks a little messy, the center has reformed further north it appears but right now its overland right on the NE tip of the Yucatan. Probably not much of a LLC left with this system right now but once it gets offshore give it 12hrs to sort itself out again and in very favorable conditions we should see this become a hurricane.

Also the northerly shift does bring Texas more into the game.

[Mecklenburg]

Texas should prepare, i can see that this can be an erratic systmem

[Chacor]

Remember to include personal forecast disclaimers please!

Recon was due to leave 17 minutes ago. Looks like they've canned this flight too.

[Normandy]

Gotta call em like I see it, and for RIGHT NOW Dolly really does not look too impressive. Check out these images:

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm
Radar clearly shows where the center is, banding supports if further. Any LLC/MLC is here.

Look at that location and check out an IR loop and you will notice that the center is completely west of all the deep convection off the Yucatan. Bad news is that Dolly is over water again it seems, or is exiting the coastline. Very short stay over the Yucatan.

[KWT]

Mecklenburg, I N.Mexico and Texas should still prepare , even those further up the coast should obviously be aware that we do have a system nearby...

The more I see the mor eit reminds me of Claudette in 2003!

Normandy, agreed but it has been overland with an ill defined LLC so thats not surprising, once its over water then we will see what this system can do.