ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[dwg71]

My uneducated guess says North of Tampico 75-100 miles. Definately has changed headings and is going very close to due west. I believe south of the border, TS strength.

[mvtrucking]

I think its very good that it is headed to Mexico, it will save lots of heartache in the US. Should just be a rainmaker for parts of Texas..

[Jam151]

umm folks have the model suite just shifted north into South Texas.

[93superstorm]

Its really Flaring up some impressive convection, lets c if it can wrap it around:

[Chacor]

The depth of cloud tops/convection is definitely impressive. Structure-wise, could still do better.

[dixiebreeze]

Getting stronger:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

21/1145 UTC 21.7N 88.7W T3.0/3.0 DOLLY

21/0545 UTC 35.0N 74.6W T3.0/3.0 CRISTOBAL

[Chacor]

Dvorak estimates are useless if there is no LLC, though.

[dwg71]

umm folks have the model suite just shifted north into South Texas.

yes, but the MLC has sped out west and will change models when they are run again. North Mexico. Take it to the bank just kidding. But, that is my prediction.

[Stormcenter]

Dolly is starting to get her act together quickly and growing.
It is also way too early to say she is headed into Mexico.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Bane]

Dolly is starting to get her act together quickly and growing.
It is also way too early to say she is headed into Mexico.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

other than some very strong convection firing to the north of the apparent mid level center, she looks like she has most of her life. she is very disorganized.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Dolly is starting to get her act together quickly and growing.
It is also way too early to say she is headed into Mexico.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

other than some very strong convection firing to the north of the apparent mid level center, she looks like she has most of her life. she is very disorganized.

She just got back over water you can't expect her to look like a full blown Cat 5 with a perfectly round eye in the middle of a perfectly round CDO. Believe me she will get her act together under these almost perfect conditions!

[HouTXmetro]

Whatever the center ther emay be appears to be convectionless. WTH is going on? Deep convection everywhere else.

[Derek Ortt]

My uneducated guess says North of Tampico 75-100 miles. Definately has changed headings and is going very close to due west. I believe south of the border, TS strength.

nothing scientifically agrees with your scenario

[Just Joshing You]

My uneducated guess says North of Tampico 75-100 miles. Definately has changed headings and is going very close to due west. I believe south of the border, TS strength.

nothing scientifically agrees with your scenario

How about running us through the scenarios?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I noticed that the baord is slow when two TC's threaten the US, another is in the West Pac, and a monster wave is coming off Africa.


Plus I made Mr. Frank very angry with me in May when I was being unpleasant at a certain moderator.

We need more server space. Plus I need to butter up the admins.


So donate to Storm2K. There is a sticky thread on how to do it at the top of the active storms topic.

[Category 5]

I noticed that the baord is slow when two TC's threaten the US, another is in the West Pac, and a monster wave is coming off Africa.


Plus I made Mr. Frank very angry with me in May when I was being unpleasant at a certain moderator.

We need more server space. Plus I need to butter up the admins.


So donate to Storm2K. There is a sticky thread on how to do it at the top of the active storms topic.

And this has WHAT to do with Dolly?

[gatorcane]

certainly some good news for Texas and Mexico this morning. Dolly continues to struggle getting her act together. Same ole story -- lots of convection but not impressively organized. I do think she is starting to gradually organize again, the Yucatan and ULL interaction kept her in check last night just like Pro Mets on this board and NHC said would happen.

When obs are showing a W wind at 5K just SW of the "center" that is some good news in my book.

[lrak]

I noticed that the baord is slow when two TC's threaten the US, another is in the West Pac, and a monster wave is coming off Africa.


Plus I made Mr. Frank very angry with me in May when I was being unpleasant at a certain moderator.

We need more server space. Plus I need to butter up the admins.


So donate to Storm2K. There is a sticky thread on how to do it at the top of the active storms topic.

Will I get a s2k support avatar?

[cycloneye]

Donate and you will get it.

Back to topic.

[Bane]

Dolly is starting to get her act together quickly and growing.
It is also way too early to say she is headed into Mexico.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

other than some very strong convection firing to the north of the apparent mid level center, she looks like she has most of her life. she is very disorganized.

She just got back over water you can't expect her to look like a full blown Cat 5 with a perfectly round eye in the middle of a perfectly round CDO. Believe me she will get her act together under these almost perfect conditions!

i don't expect her to ever approach cat 2 status, let alone cat 5. the one thing this system has lacked is a sustained llc throughout it's lifespan and organize. nothing has changed this morning to think that is going to be any different anytime soon.