ATL: IKE Discussion

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TreasureIslandFLGal
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Re: Re:

#5061 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:58 pm

cape_escape wrote:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:
cape_escape wrote:I can't understand any of this, but I believe its live TV from Cuba now...http://www.ustream.tv/channel/cub ... ricane-ike

edited to add it also has a live chat on it that's in English....


Tried to check it out but, could not see anything. :(


Did you see where I fixed it? I had it all ran together.


Yeah, I sure did, thanks! Not that it did me much good since I only know a handful of Spanish words and most of them are not used in polite society! :lol:

Sorry I didn't reply sooner, I was perusing through the models discussion thread! 8-)

~Nik~
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Re:

#5062 Postby AZRainman » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:02 am

fasterdisaster wrote:That was on the SOUTHERN eyewall, frankly I have a hard time believing it was just 125 mph sustained. Post-season might put it at 130-135 IMO.

110-115 KT = 127-132mph
SFMR AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. source
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5063 Postby HarlequinBoy » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:03 am

MetSul Weather Center wrote:Storm surge in Barbacoa, Cuba.

Image

More pictures at http://www.metsul.com/blog


Wow wow wow.
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Re: Re:

#5064 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:05 am

AZRainman wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:That was on the SOUTHERN eyewall, frankly I have a hard time believing it was just 125 mph sustained. Post-season might put it at 130-135 IMO.

110-115 KT = 127-132mph
SFMR AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. source


They have to put kts in 5s so they say 110 to 115. They say 135 mph when it's 115 kts and 125 mph when it's 110 kts so I think it was the lower end of Cat 4.
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Re: Re:

#5065 Postby AZRainman » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:16 am

fasterdisaster wrote:They have to put kts in 5s so they say 110 to 115. They say 135 mph when it's 115 kts and 125 mph when it's 110 kts so I think it was the lower end of Cat 4.


Looked like a weak cat 4 to me also. recon: M. CO16-48 =main eye is 16mi across, the second eye was 48mi across with 120kt surface winds from dropsonde.
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Re: Re:

#5066 Postby cape_escape » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:18 am

Did you see where I fixed it? I had it all ran together.[/quote]

Yeah, I sure did, thanks! Not that it did me much good since I only know a handful of Spanish words and most of them are not used in polite society! :lol:

Sorry I didn't reply sooner, I was perusing through the models discussion thread! 8-)

~Nik~[/quote]


I just managed to work my way through the models thread as well!
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#5067 Postby bob rulz » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:21 am

Latest MSNBC news articles puts the death toll in Haiti at 58, with 1 in the Dominican Republic from a falling tree. Also, 3 more bodies from Hanna were found. Death toll from four storms has reached 319 in Haiti! They just can't catch a break there. :(
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#5068 Postby shah8 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:35 am

Holguin is getting nailed right now. It's quite a bit bigger than Pensacola, for example...
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5069 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:52 am

Inland. Good category 3-lower 4 hit Holguin. Should have some good damage photos tomorrow.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5070 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:09 am

It was 21.1/75.8 at 11pm est, now it is 21.2/76.6. That .9 degree's with each .1=6 miles=54 miles/3 hours=18 mph(6*9=54/3=18 mph). So yes this has gained some speed. The Cuban radar also shows it is moving mostly westward with a increase in speed.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5071 Postby southmdwatcher » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:15 am

Ike might be able to make it out to the Caribbean before he turns wnw.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5072 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:44 am

southmdwatcher wrote:Ike might be able to make it out to the Caribbean before he turns wnw.


I think he might also...

Image
Last edited by Brent on Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5073 Postby NC George » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:44 am

MGC wrote:Cuban radar is displaying the concentric eyewalls nicely. How come Cuban radar and weather stations can keep reporting while in the USA they usually fail?.....MGC


Couple of ideas come to mind. First, they only have 8 radar stations, and they probably cost a bit of money, so they are probably fairly well protected. Second, would you want to be the person who has to tell Castro why the radar failed in a storm?

Lastly, I have seen them go down in the past. During Gustav a couple went down when the storm hit.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5074 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:49 am

Brent wrote:
southmdwatcher wrote:Ike might be able to make it out to the Caribbean before he turns wnw.


I think he might also...

Image


Wow, Ike really seems to have fallen in love with that 21 degrees line! He's just not too anxious to come North of it is he?! :wink:
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5075 Postby physicx07 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:53 am

NC George wrote:
MGC wrote:Cuban radar is displaying the concentric eyewalls nicely. How come Cuban radar and weather stations can keep reporting while in the USA they usually fail?.....MGC


Couple of ideas come to mind. First, they only have 8 radar stations, and they probably cost a bit of money, so they are probably fairly well protected. Second, would you want to be the person who has to tell Castro why the radar failed in a storm?

Lastly, I have seen them go down in the past. During Gustav a couple went down when the storm hit.


Still can't believe the Holquim radar still works.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5076 Postby Duddy » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:54 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:
Brent wrote:
southmdwatcher wrote:Ike might be able to make it out to the Caribbean before he turns wnw.


I think he might also...

Image


Wow, Ike really seems to have fallen in love with that 21 degrees line! He's just not too anxious to come North of it is he?! :wink:


Wonder if he will trek across Cuba into the Carib.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5077 Postby Sonica » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:57 am

Brent wrote:
southmdwatcher wrote:Ike might be able to make it out to the Caribbean before he turns wnw.


I think he might also...

Image


Wow, it does seem to be plowing right thur Cuba. I really thought it would ride the line.
Does that mean ukmet is most accurate? Will it come over to GFDL..or the opposite?
Last edited by Sonica on Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5078 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:59 am

So far the core seems to be hold together pretty good!
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#5079 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:00 am

Not losing much organization
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#5080 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:06 am

Wonder if he will trek across Cuba into the Carib.[/quote]

There was a time earlier this afternoon when the UK model was showing that solution and Frank2 and I were attempting to discuss the hypothetical outcomes of just such an event coming to fruition. However, we really were discouraged from continuing that line of conversation by another poster due to the fact that the UKMO was the only model suggesting such a thing.

I think that neither one of us wanted to get into a debate over what was at that time a flight of fancy.

So, IF Ike would happen to continue on his current path and somehow emerge into the Carribean Sea, what do you think that that would possibly do to his future path?

Just curious, I am fully aware that such discussion is purely speculative. 8-)

Thanks,
~Nikki~
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