ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[MiamiensisWx]

Why are many people assuming that it will strike south of the border when it is prudent to focus on the cone and the NHC discussion clearky denotes uncertainties?

If Dolly strikes the Matamoros, Mexico area, Brownsville, Texas would be situated within the northern quadrant and would still experience adverse effects.

A TC is not a point...

In regards to the low level center, there may be some mid level ESE shear from the filling upper low to the SW, and some mid level dry air instrusion (via the upper low) could be impacting Dolly in the short term. However, as the upper low becomes a less significant factor, I continue to anticipate intensification as a primary center organizes. I would strongly suggest that residents and others should still take Dolly seriously. My original analysis outlined the possibility of Cat 2/3 intensity, depending on structural/thermodynamic trends. The amount of intensification depends on the organization of an inner core. Since the synoptic environment is becoming very favorable ahead of the TC, it may not reach the "upper end" (upper Cat 2/3) of my expectations, but I still anticipate a HURRICANE.

[dixiebreeze]

umm folks have the model suite just shifted north into South Texas.

yes, but the MLC has sped out west and will change models when they are run again. North Mexico. Take it to the bank just kidding. But, that is my prediction.

Historical tracking map from this position/strength:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[TheRingo]

There's plenty of warm water to get her act together.

[gatorcane]

Why are many people assuming that it will strike south of the border when it is prudent to focus on the cone and the NHC discussion clearky denotes uncertainties?

If Dolly strikes the Matamoros, Mexico area, Brownsville, Texas would be situated within the northern quadrant and would still experience adverse effects.

A TC is not a point...

In regards to the low level center, there may be some mid level ESE shear from the filling upper low to the SW, and some mid level dry air instrusion (via the upper low) could be impacting Dolly in the short term. However, as the upper low becomes a less significant factor, I continue to anticipate intensification as a primary center organizes. I would strongly suggest that residents and others should still take Dolly seriously.

MiamiensisWx makes a great point here. I will add that since members are seeing a more WNW to W movement now, they are jumping on the "its a Mexico threat" bandwagon. Fact is that a weakness is expected to be created over the next 48 hours in the Texas-GOM ridge. The ULL that has been inducing about 10-15K of shear is continuing to move SW into the BOC and Dolly will not be inhibited by the Yucatan landmass. So Upper-Level winds continue to become increasingly favorable. With that said I absolutely agree with MaimiensisWx in that residents within the cone area need to seriously watch Dolly.

[cycloneye]

To add,it will slowdown as the weakness comes.

[lrak]

The water vapor loop makes this thing look huge! Is this storm expected to be big like Allen, or small like Bret?

[TampaFl]

Dolly south of her forecasted track: (Map courtesy BoatUSA.com)

[TampaFl]

Close up map (map courtesy BOATUSA.com)

[lrak]

Take the current size of Dolly and put it over Brownsville now and that would put all that strong convection over CC and Houston areas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon didn't find a tight LLC, so Dvorak may be less than completely useful, but we do have flight level winds, from scanning HDOBs, of 57 knots, so I'd think there are 45 knot winds in the vicinity of Dolly.


Unofficially.

Unofficially as well, I think official NHC forecast and intensity, while perhaps not perfect, are in the general ballpark, and people should plan accordingly to NHC and local NWS forecasts and statements.

[gatorcane]

Wind shear tendency points at a GO for Dolly to intensify:

[Jam151]

It's relocating over the MLC to the north again from the looks of it

[cheezyWXguy]

Im getting the feeling that Dolly's "center" is about to reform again to the east. Im looking at visible imagery and I see the "center" pulling in a different direction than the rest of the storm, leaving all convection behind but an open band to the SW. Either Dolly will organize this center pretty rapidly or she will form a new one...JMO

[gatorcane]

Im getting the feeling that Dolly's "center" is about to reform again to the east. Im looking at visible imagery and I see the "center" pulling in a different direction than the rest of the storm, leaving all convection behind but an open band to the SW. Either Dolly will organize this center pretty rapidly or she will form a new one...JMO

it is interesting you say this. It does appear that the convection on the eastern side is trying to "break off" from the LLC which is rapidly moving WNW on the western side. I'm curious if a clean break happens. None of the models forecast that though so doubtful

[HouTXmetro]

Yep, I'm thinking center reformation also because of the lack of convection over the current weak LLC.

[oyster_reef]

I forget what storm it was... around 2002 I think... kind of the same path and it really caught all the models and forcasters off guard when it came into contact with the Yucatan peninsula it jerked west and actually never was able to get off... meandered around on the peninsula for a few days. Obviously Dolly doesn't look like she will get stuck... but we can all see the "jerk" west due to the friction. Will Dolly "jerk" north once the friction is released?

[rockyman]

I forget what storm it was... around 2002 I think... kind of the same path and it really caught all the models and forcasters off guard when it came into contact with the Yucatan peninsula it jerked west and actually never was able to get off... meandered around on the peninsula for a few days. Obviously Dolly doesn't look like she will get stuck... but we can all see the "jerk" west due to the friction. Will Dolly "jerk" north once the friction is released?

Isidore
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isidore

[cheezyWXguy]

Im getting the feeling that Dolly's "center" is about to reform again to the east. Im looking at visible imagery and I see the "center" pulling in a different direction than the rest of the storm, leaving all convection behind but an open band to the SW. Either Dolly will organize this center pretty rapidly or she will form a new one...JMO

it is interesting you say this. It does appear that the convection on the eastern side is trying to "break off" from the LLC which is rapidly moving WNW on the western side. I'm curious if a clean break happens. None of the models forecast that though so doubtful

Not so much a "break off" but maybe the MLC just dies, allowing reformation in the storm further east.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is what I think:

[jasons2k]

I think a LLC relocation is likely - I've been thinking this since yesterday. I thought it would be complete by now but we're close.

Also, for those discounting any chances of much intensification since it has remained disorganized so far, the pro mets have been saying for days this storm wouldn't intensify much until it reached the GOM. The conditions for intensification before landfall are most certainly there and I think those from Brownsville to Corpus need to take this one seriously.