ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Shawee]

Ok, place your bets... what will nhc do with track in about 40 minutes. I will say it will be just an extension of the previous with land fall 10 miles left or right of current estimate and bring it there in about 4.5 days.

slightly west of current (your 10 miles sounds reasonable)

[deltadog03]

E 600 miles...lol..jk..prolly not any movement.

[weatherguru18]

I say track stays the way it is. If it shifts any, it will likely be west.

[duris]

The following from the Times-Picayune's "expert" in a chat today is generally good advice, but that can't possibly be accurate for Camille's hurricane force winds can it? Just checked somewhere else and it said 60 miles outward, so wondering if anyone knows for sure.

how far east or west does it have to go to get out of harms way
12:10 For New Orleans, again, it depends on the size and strength of the storm. Katrina was huge, 450 miles across, with a radius of maximum winds of 75 miles. Camille, on the other hand, was compact and hurricane force winds extended out only 10 miles. And then the storm can bounce along the coastline, move east or west and dump heavy rainfall on you. Bottom line is you should watch for what emergency preparedness officials say about where safety is. Go north, not east or west.

[rockyman]

Current 5 day forecast:

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 01/1800z 28.0n 89.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Outlook valid 02/1800z 30.0n 91.5w...inland
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.


Previous 5 day forecast:
96HR VT 01/1200Z 27.0N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W 100 KT

[HouTXmetro]

I'm thinking it may start to have stacking issues as it goes through the spine of Jamaica. Per my untrained eyes I see it still near the tip possibly slightly offshore to the south.

[jasons2k]

This is not a wager thread - let's stay on topic please.

[canegrl04]

Get ready.Gustav is going to really power up over the next 48 hours We can only hope that a cat 3 is the strongest he ever becomes

[dwg71]

as far as I can tell a little east just prior to land fall, and a little west after. Just a little difference, inessence - no difference.

[tolakram]

Inland over the mountains, though the center locations is subject to error.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 76.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM



http://markalot.org/gearth.html

[KWT]

Looks like Gustav is going right throughthe heart of the island and its tallest mountions as well. Also that motion shows the northerly wobble this system took just before it made landfall, if you extrap the recon findings you'll see track is a hair north of west.

[ROCK]

Looks like Gustav is going right throughthe heart of the island and its tallest mountions as well. Also that motion shows the northerly wobble this system took just before it made landfall, if you extrap the recon findings you'll see track is a hair north of west.

I disagree...he is still on forecast points....

[Wx_Warrior]

Anyone have the new 4pm NHC image?

[hurrican19]

Anyone have the new 4pm NHC image?

uhh it hasn't been released yet by the NHC, check it out on their page. it'll be there soon enough.

[KWT]

Also It may wobble towards the deep convection now forming on the SW side as well, seems like the center is being whipped about as new convection blows up.

Its decently north of the forecasted point earlier this morning rock, the most recent advisory shows the center is further to the WNW than it was.

[Janie2006]

The media frenzy is just getting ridiculous. Yes, we've a potentially dangerous hurricane (which has already killed people) poised to move into the Gulf. Yes, all interests should be urged to pay attention to the forecast track and advisories from NHC and NWS. No, people should not panic.

My sister just called me from Memphis and ordered me to leave tomorrow morning and head her way. She took one look at the NHC cone and is convinced that Houston is being evacuated and the MGC will get obliterated. I tried to tell her about the complications of forecasting a landfalling hurricane, especially 4 days out. I assured her that I have a plan for riding out the storm/evacuating (depending on landfall location) should the need arise. I assured her that I am very well aware of what's going on. I don't think any of this sunk in. Now she's miffed at me...but there's no use in rushing about like a chicken with its head cut off. She's overreacting (at this point) due to the stories she's seeing on some media outlets. My preparations and plans are almost in place. I'll make the necessary calls on Saturday.

I relay this story to remind folks (and our lurking guests) that panic will only ensure that you don't get everything done that you need to do. Don't overreact. Don't panic. Be like the prairie dog, that is, alert and watchful. Make preparations and plans, but stay cool. It will save you time, stress and money...maybe even your life.

[hurrican19]

And now.. here it is...

[CrazyC83]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 282100
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA
AT ABOUT 1800 UTC TODAY...BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ABLE TO FLY THROUGH THE
CENTER NEAR THAT TIME. FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INDICATED THAT
GUSTAV WAS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE INTENSITY...BUT THE DATA WERE NOT QUITE CONVINCING ENOUGH
TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY WHICH REMAINS 60 KT. THE AIRCRAFT
SUBSEQUENTLY DETECTED THE CENTER LOCATED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ISLAND. A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH LAND...BUT ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TOMORROW...CONDITIONS
APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. DUE TO THE VERY WARM
WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING EITHER...SO GUSTAV
COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A FEW DAYS...AS FORECAST
BY ESSENTIALLY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

GUSTAV IS RESPONDING TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BY
CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 275/5. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THAT
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
SHOULD IMPART A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND GENERALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE
WESTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL
SPREAD INCREASES OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER...BOTH IN TERMS OF PATH
AND FORWARD SPEED...BOUNDED BY THE FAST GFDL ON THE RIGHT AND A
MUCH SLOWER GFS ON THE LEFT. DESPITE SOME CHANGES IN THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKS...THE CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED AND THE
NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5
DAYS...AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO...IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. IN FACT...TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE
FORECASTS...THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE
OF LOUISIANA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 18.1N 76.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 18.4N 77.8W 55 KT...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.1N 79.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 81.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 83.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 87.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 89.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[CrazyC83]

Looks like there was significant discussion on whether Gustav was a hurricane at landfall in Jamaica. The highest flight-level winds put it dead on the line with 71 kt FL winds translating to 63.9 kt at the surface. I would have put it at 65 kt at landfall based on the data though - the TCR may show that.

[ROCK]

not much change on the line or cone from the 4 pm...good disco...