ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[xironman]

It's relocating over the MLC to the north again from the looks of it

That is what I am seeing on the visible.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-89.5&zoom=1&info=vis&type=Animation&numframes=7&quality=90
It is like going up the stairs with the wnw movement and relocation to the north.

[Smurfwicked]

More like 16mph not 6

[HouTXmetro]

I believe Claudette is a more accurate measure of How Dolly is responding.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

:uarrow: More like 16mph not 6

I see that now. I looked at the 8am quickly and thought it said 6mph

[gatorcane]

So here is a WV image of the GOM and SE US. What's interesting to note is that you see the big High over Texas and the eastern periphery of it on the NW side of the PIC. That is inducing a WNW motion of Dolly's MLC. Then over the NE GOM and SE US you see the clouds digging down. I think there is a small weakness there created indirectly from Cristobal's presence. Perhaps the deep convection on the eastern side of Dolly is feeling a little bit of that small weakness and is getting "stuck" and left behind in the NW Caribbean. Just a thought as to why the convection on the Eastern side of Dolly appears to be not moving West with Dolly.

[HouTXmetro]

That High over Texas looks strong.

[lrak]

and the top and NE side still look flattened by the H pressure.

[Jagno]

I think a LLC relocation is likely - I've been thinking this since yesterday. I thought it would be complete by now but we're close.

Also, for those discounting any chances of much intensification since it has remained disorganized so far, the pro mets have been saying for days this storm wouldn't intensify much until it reached the GOM. The conditions for intensification before landfall are most certainly there and I think those from Brownsville to Corpus need to take this one seriously.

Not to be off topic but Corpus residents I just posted a thread in Hurricane Prep about FREE WATER being dispensed there. If you are still prepping please check it out. I hope it helps.

I'm feeling a little uncomfortable with people speculating a definite Mexico or extreme S. Texas landfall at this juncture of development. There are new people here that are absorbing every ounce of information they can and these types of posts can be confusing/dangerous. Let's give Dolly and recon some time to get it's bearings then post speculations, with disclaimers for us non professionals of course.

[Chacor]

A larger WV view...

[cheezyWXguy]

you know, im actually not so sure that "center" reformation will occur again after all...I just looked at that zoomed in visible loop posted above, and I noticed that its struggling to develop southerly inflow, due to proximity to the yucatan, which is likely why it looks like crap. Once it pulls away in a couple hours or so, it should organize pretty quickly.

BTW-Jeff Masters seems pretty confident in this storm strengthening, possibly to a major hurricane, and says its already beginning to organize.

[alan1961]

The Dolly machine is a rollin!

[Sanibel]

Dolly did a jump because it was transferring from the Caribbean guiding feature over to the Gulf ridge. You can see the ridge's influence by the way Dolly went straight W-WNW when it got under it. But also in the way Dolly shot forward in speed when it contacted it.

There's a cooler upwellling area just north of Yucatan that should delay development somewhat but you can already see the outer bands thickening over the warm Gulf. Good call on track by NHC. Lesson learned is a jump north doesn't guarantee a continued trend north.

Gulf transition storms can underperform. We'll see how Dolly fares.

[HouTXmetro]

you know, im actually not so sure that "center" reformation will occur again after all...I just looked at that zoomed in visible loop posted above, and I noticed that its struggling to develop southerly inflow, due to proximity to the yucatan, which is likely why it looks like crap. Once it pulls away in a couple hours or so, it should organize pretty quickly.

BTW-Jeff Masters seems pretty confident in this storm strengthening, possibly to a major hurricane, and says its already beginning to organize.

That's even more reason to believe another center relocatioan. The current weak LLC is convectionless.

[lrak]

im glad you said that, I couldn't see it.

[wx247]

and the top and NE side still look flattened by the H pressure.

I don't see that at all. It is having no trouble on its North and Northeast side that I can see. It is the southern side that is having issues right now.

This is just my humble opinion and comes nowhere near to the scientific genius of the NHC, the professional mets, amateurs, and even some of the people I disagree with on this message board.

[lrak]

I think a LLC relocation is likely - I've been thinking this since yesterday. I thought it would be complete by now but we're close.

Also, for those discounting any chances of much intensification since it has remained disorganized so far, the pro mets have been saying for days this storm wouldn't intensify much until it reached the GOM. The conditions for intensification before landfall are most certainly there and I think those from Brownsville to Corpus need to take this one seriously.

Not to be off topic but Corpus residents I just posted a thread in Hurricane Prep about FREE WATER being dispensed there. If you are still prepping please check it out. I hope it helps.

I'm feeling a little uncomfortable with people speculating a definite Mexico or extreme S. Texas landfall at this juncture of development. There are new people here that are absorbing every ounce of information they can and these types of posts can be confusing/dangerous. Let's give Dolly and recon some time to get it's bearings then post speculations, with disclaimers for us non professionals of course.

i looked and couldnt' find your thread.

[weatherguru18]

I have a hard time believeing it'll be anything more than a Cat. 1. My gut tells me a 65mph tropical storm. For their sake, I hope I'm right.

[lrak]

and the top and NE side still look flattened by the H pressure.

I don't see that at all. It is having no trouble on its North and Northeast side that I can see. It is the southern side that is having issues right now.

This is just my humble opinion and comes nowhere near to the scientific genius of the NHC, the professional mets, amateurs, and even some of the people I disagree with on this message board.

Im just pointing out that the west side has a lot of moisture, compared the north and northeastern side of the storm.

[Sanibel]

I don't care what anyone says, when two tropical storms are that close they tend to limit each other.

[HURAKAN]