ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[lrak]

that picture above is not a circle but a flattened oval.

[Sanibel]

Definitely trending south of track.

[Stormcenter]

I don't care what anyone says, when two tropical storms are that close they tend to limit each other.

What other TS storm are you referring to?

[funster]

I have a hard time believeing it'll be anything more than a Cat. 1. My gut tells me a 65mph tropical storm. For their sake, I hope I'm right.

It won't without a center but if it does reorganize they are saying it is going to move slowly; this might give it enough time to explode.

[cycloneye]

We have a LLC:

URNT12 KWBC 211407
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1310Z
B. 22 DEG 04 MIN N
89 DEG 10 MIN W
C. NA
D. 40 KT
E. 060 DEG 100 NM
F. 130 DEG 56 KT
G. 060 DEG 105 NM
H. EXTRAP 1007 MB
I. 22 C/473 M
J. 23 C/481 M
K. 21 C/27 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/01
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0904A DOLLY OB 09 AL042008
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
MAX FL WIND 56 KNOTS NE QUAD 1241Z

[lrak]

I don't care what anyone says, when two tropical storms are that close they tend to limit each other.

What other TS storm are you referring to?

Cristobal

[HURAKAN]

I don't care what anyone says, when two tropical storms are that close they tend to limit each other.

Do you see any interaction between Cristóbal and Dolly?

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't care what anyone says, when two tropical storms are that close they tend to limit each other.

What are u kidding? Those storms arent even close. Cristobal is like 800 miles away.This thing is by itself right now. By the time this thing moves away from the yucatan it should blow up. All thats being hampered is southern inflow, which over the past few days appeared to be Dolly's primary inflow.

Btw, didnt recon find a closed circulation again? Im pretty sure there was a VDM

[funster]

I don't care what anyone says, when two tropical storms are that close they tend to limit each other.

What are u kidding? Those storms arent even close. Cristobal is like 800 miles away.This thing is by itself right now. By the time this thing moves away from the yucatan it should blow up. All thats being hampered is southern inflow, which over the past few days appeared to be Dolly's primary inflow.

Btw, didnt recon find a closed circulation again? Im pretty sure there was a VDM

Yeah, the VDM is posted a few entries above.

[Sanibel]

It could be conditions, but the way to put this properly is "do you see two storms that aren't strengthening?" I'll drop this because it will end up in terse protestations that "there's no influence between those two". Myself I say there's two storms out there not getting stronger. Perhaps Dolly will get close enough to the coast to pull off pre-shore intensification.


I've seen many a storm fail to get strong in the Mexican area of the Gulf after passing from the Caribbean. I'm not foolish enough to say that will happen with Dolly for obvious reasons.

[funster]

It could be conditions, but the way to put this properly is "do you see two storms that aren't strengthening?" I'll drop this because it will end up in terse protestations that "there's no influence between those two". Myself I say there's two storms out there not getting stronger. Perhaps Dolly will get close enough to the coast to pull off pre-shore intensification.


I've seen many a storm fail to get strong in the Mexican area of the Gulf after passing from the Caribbean. I'm not foolish enough to say that will happen with Dolly for obvious reasons.

I remember when a storm named Lilly (i think that was the name) never quite recovered. I don't think Dolly will have that problem.

[Comanche]

I don't care what anyone says, when two tropical storms are that close they tend to limit each other.

[dwg71]

Vortex message shows it to be south of NHC track, not a great deal but some.

[Sanibel]

Important to keep in mind that Dolly just passed by a cool upwelling pocket while inhibited by land and ULL remnants to its south side.

[Chacor]

FZNT23 KNHC 211445
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 22.1N 89.5W 1005 MB AT 11 AM EDT IS MOVING NW AT 16 KT.

[Stormcenter]

I don't care what anyone says, when two tropical storms are that close they tend to limit each other.

Do you see any interaction between Cristóbal and Dolly?

I don't see any interaction between the two but what I do see is that "Dolly" is a pretty large system.
That can only work in her favor.

[cheezyWXguy]

It could be conditions, but the way to put this properly is "do you see two storms that aren't strengthening?" I'll drop this because it will end up in terse protestations that "there's no influence between those two". Myself I say there's two storms out there not getting stronger. Perhaps Dolly will get close enough to the coast to pull off pre-shore intensification.


I've seen many a storm fail to get strong in the Mexican area of the Gulf after passing from the Caribbean. I'm not foolish enough to say that will happen with Dolly for obvious reasons.

Cristobal is not strengthening because of cooler water temperatures and an imminent extratropical transition in the next few days. Dolly is not strengthening due to land interaction, obviously. Does that not explain it?

[Derek Ortt]

Sanibel... what you're saying has zero basis in fact in this case

Dolly is not intensifying because its core was disrupted by the Yucatan.

[TexWx]

This thing is completely moving west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

[funster]

Vortex message shows it to be south of NHC track, not a great deal but some.

At 22.1 already it doesn't have to travel too far north to hit Texas. We will have to see how strong this ridge remains.