ATL: IKE Discussion

[DJJordan]

Even if it now keeps the NHC track it does getinto the CAribbean waters, granted only for about an hour!

The longer it can stay heading west the more chance of making the Caribbean though I do expect north of west motion to happen sooner rather then later.

The other thing to note is IF it follows the NHC track ,they expect it to be weaker then the 60kts they forecasted, I still think 45-50kts would be more likely if the NHC track happened with a real messed up core.

I agree .... with a real messed up core ... it would take alot longer to reorganize .... but then again I could be wrong.

[KWT]

Well yep it will take some time to rebuild the inner core if it is totally messed up, though if it makes it to the Caribbean then the core may not get quite as disrupted as it otherwise could have been...however we shall have to wait and see what happens!

[DJJordan]

Got any predictions on lanfall in your opinion?? I've been a lurker a long time here ... only really post when something may be threatening me.

On the Gulf Coast that is

[KWT]

Too early to know really, we shall have to wait and see where it emerges off Cuba and just how strong it is.

[DJJordan]

Too early to know really, we shall have to wait and see where it emerges off Cuba and just how strong it is.

Agreed .... will just have to continue to monitor I suppose

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just a happy feeling/hope for our Louisiana friends- like Gustav, Ike may be too disrupted when to really benefit from the loop current when it crosses it shortly after Cuba. Only caveat, even beyond loop current, decent heat potential as far North as 28º, so if it does eventually re-organize, it'll still have reasonably favorable conditions beneath it.

[littlevince]

Yesterday in Baracoa, eastern Cuba

[Ed Mahmoud]

Re: Little Vince -

Maybe it is just the paint job, but I wouldn't want to be in that taller blue apartment building in a hurricane

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My center fix 21.1/77.45

[cycloneye]

Continues westward towards NW Caribbean sea according to radar.Refresh the image every 15 minutes.

[KWT]

Ed, even that water upto 29N would support a major hurricane in good upper conditions though by that time it would indeed be dragging in somewhat dry air into its circulation.

[Air Force Met]

My center fix 21.1/77.45

Yep...its certainly moving a little south of west right now per Cuban radar.

[KWT]

Cycloneye, looks like its still right along that 21N line, the longer it takes that track the longer it will get in the Caribbean sea it appears.

[Portastorm]

Cycloneye, looks like its still right along that 21N line, the longer it takes that track the longer it will get in the Caribbean sea it appears.

You mean the "the shorter time it will get in the Caribbean", right? Unless Ike adjusts to a west-northwest trajectory, he's going to emerge over water in fairly quick time given his westbound, even slightly south of due west, movement.

[KWT]

No the longer it stays near 21N on that westward track the more time it gets in the Caribbean Sea. We agree just using different words to say the same thing

[Portastorm]

No the longer it stays near 21N on that westward track the more time it gets in the Caribbean Sea.

A-ha! Got it now. Coffee hasn't kicked in here yet this side of the pool!

An Ike into the NW Caribbean will no doubt do less damage to his core and I wonder how that would change the model tracks, if any.

[cycloneye]

More simple:More westward track,more time in the NW Caribbean Sea.

[littlevince]

[Sabanic]

Been a rough ride for Cuba for sure

[Crostorm]

Impresive video from Cuba

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JU_ScZJtg