ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't know why today's G-IV mission was cancelled. It would have been nice knowing tonight's 0Z models had as much upper air data from the Gulf of Mexico as possible.


Mission scheduled tomorrow, so I think Saturday morning, besides being another day closer in time, models will have better data to process, and we'll have a pretty good idea the area of maximum risk.

[KWT]

Yep the cone needs to be watched, but it still must be said that the best guidence out there suggests this goes close to LA anyway, statistical guidence the NHC uses does seem to suggest equal chances across the board but being realisitic there is more chance of a hit between Houston and Mobile right now.

Ed, yep indeed.

[Sjones]

How will a Louisiana landfall affect Texas- in my amateur opininion, from my experiences, it all depends.

When Katrina made landfall on the LA/MS line, an outer rain band actually rotated through the Galleria area. I was watching radar and satellite, and it was one of the outer most bands.

I don't think Gustav will be quite that big when it hits Louisiana, if it is still moving Northwest when it hits, besides the subsidence ahead of it, when it gets closer, we'd have North or Northwest winds, not the best direction for rain.

If Gustav hits further West in Louisiana than the current projection, I'd suspect the BPT area would get some squalls from it. All depends on the strength and size. Humberto made landfall closer to us, to our East, than Rita, and there was no obvious sensible weather really, whereas Rita caused some rain and wind gusts in excess of tropical storm force, judging by tree and fence damage around here.

Wow, I'm glad you only got fence and tree damage. With Rita, there were roofs blown off of houses all around the Golden Triangle AKA Beaumont and Port Arthur. Humberto's eye came right over me in Port Neches TX. I witnessed it with my own two eyes. If Gustav hits SWLA, Beaumont and Port Arthur Area, along with Orange will feel some big effects from this. Houston is not on the coast, there are many cities long before you get to Houston.

[MiamiensisWx]

I definitely agree that it is extremely important to avoid the dire "doom" prognostications, but it seems like we (collectively) start to ascribe "shear", "dry air", etc. to every TC that enters the Gulf of Mexico (after Lili, Katrina, Ivan, Dennis, Opal, et al weakened prior to landfall). You must ask the question, "If an identical repeat of Carla, Camille, Celia, Eloise, or Frederic occurred today, would we initially assume the TC would weaken significantly prior to landfall based on other past examples?" It seems like we're becoming too accustomed to TCs behaving homogeneously as they approach the Gulf Coast. It is also important to note that Lili still caused extensive wind/flooding damages in rural areas, although the wind damage was obviously not as "bad" as the potential Cat 3+ landfall initially suggested. Most people tend to underestimate the strength of strong TS/Cat 1/Cat 2 winds. It is also notable that many people on this forum downplayed Katrina as it weakened, and we all observed the premature "New Orleans/Gulf Coast dodged the bullet" headlines. Obviously, Katrina, Ivan, Dennis, and Opal were still very destructive TCs even after weakening, and they produced a broad swath of TS/Cat 1 winds that caused extensive damages, in addition to the tremendous surge destruction. Since these weakening TCs (under different synoptic environments than Camille, Carla, Frederic, Eloise, etc.) inflicted extreme monetary and human losses, the prospects of a TC that does not weaken significantly prior to landfall (along a very vulnerable region) are very unsettling. I have an uncomfortable suspicion that we will be surprised one day. I'm NOT stating that Gustav will be "the one"; I'm merely advocating another perspective to keep in mind as well.

[Stormcenter]

Exactly... Everyone seems to just look "at the line".. Remember several years ago the NHC wanted to totally do away w/ the line, but keep everything just as a "Cone" with a dot where they think its going to be? That way, it'd be nearly impossible to try to figure it out.. They gave the public the power to vote for change or not, and we voted to stay the way it was. I personally like the line also, but NEVER follow the line.. the cone is most important this many days out...

Also of importance, to remember, from the NHC 5PM Disco..
IN FACT...TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE
FORECASTS...THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE
OF LOUISIANA.


As mentioned earlier by other members, the ENTIRE Gulf Coast needs to watch out, just because Texas isn't mentioned here does NOT mean we are in the clear.... Remember, the CONE.

I was just going to post that.....seriously.
That pretty much says it all. I really believe
they don't know for sure but they still have pick a central
"best bet" point and that is central LA. right now.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm in south Lafayette and won't be going anywhere for this storm. I know, things would be miserable for a few days after but I'm going all out with supplies, generators, plenty of fuel, food, water, ice, even bought a window unit A/C to run off the generator . Fact is I have very elderly relatives that live in coastal Iberia and St. Mary parishes and they have no where else to go so my home has always served as a last resort shelter. Always most concerned about storm surge and flooding and that is not an issue at my home, quite the opposite for my relatives. Let's hope for the best.

[Ed Mahmoud]

(Refers to S Jones)


Not sure why the apparent anger. I know full well Rita and Humberto caused significant damage to 'The Golden Triangle'.


I was just pointing out that Humberto, hitting on the Bolivar Peninsula, had almost no affect on our weather, whereas Rita, another 50 or 60 miles farther East, brought tropical storm conditions to my neighborhood in suburban Houston.


As if people are looking for any excuse to get angry.

[txag2005]

Is Houston/Galveston out of the weeds at this point? The models seem to agree more and more on Central LA.

What percent chance can we put on a potential HOuston/Galveston landfall?

[KWT]

Miami, I think a small size will have a far greater chance of pulling a gulf surprise, though Carla clearly wasn't that!

Convection still bursting very nicely over the center and the convection is showing some great outflow still, I can only think once this exits land into the Caribbean again Gustav has everything there to strengthen, and possibly undergo RI.

[ROCK]

Don't know why today's G-IV mission was cancelled. It would have been nice knowing tonight's 0Z models had as much upper air data from the Gulf of Mexico as possible.


Mission scheduled tomorrow, so I think Saturday morning, besides being another day closer in time, models will have better data to process, and we'll have a pretty good idea the area of maximum risk.

I would think the G-IV mission would be better suited once Gus actually makes it into the GOM and can sample the building high....

[weatherguru18]

Is Houston/Galveston out of the weeds at this point? The models seem to agree more and more on Central LA.

What percent chance can we put on a potential HOuston/Galveston landfall?

Not even a little bit. We are very much at risk here. WE ARE IN THE CONE.

[PTrackerLA]

Houston area - Pensacola area still very much in the danger zone so stay tuned of course. Unfortunately we're continuing to be targeted but I'm still holding out hope for a shift tomorrow or Saturday (sorry neighbors).

One thing I must mention, IF the current track were to more or less "pan out" in 4-5 days, the NHC as well as computer models must be applauded for the tremendous advances that have been made in forecasting. We shall see.

[HouTXmetro]

Is Houston/Galveston out of the weeds at this point? The models seem to agree more and more on Central LA.

What percent chance can we put on a potential HOuston/Galveston landfall?

I think so but we are in the cone and as long as you are in the cone be vigilant.

[Sjones]

:uarrow:


Not sure why the apparent anger. I know full well Rita and Humberto caused significant damage to 'The Golden Triangle'.


I was just pointing out that Humberto, hitting on the Bolivar Peninsula, had almost no affect on our weather, whereas Rita, another 50 or 60 miles farther East, brought tropical storm conditions to my neighborhood in suburban Houston.


As if people are looking for any excuse to get angry.

Oh sweetie, I'm not angry in the least bit Just pointing out that Texas is not in the clear even with a SWLA landfall

[tolakram]

Kingston, JM (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 57 sec ago
Heavy Rain Showers
75 °F / 24 °C
Heavy Showers Rain Squalls
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 73 °F / 23 °C
Wind: 48 mph / 78 km/h / 21.6 m/s from the East
Pressure: 29.30 in / 992 hPa (Falling)

[Stormcenter]

I'm not sure if anyone posted this but Gustav "right now" has a very small wind field. I'll be curious to see how much (if any) it expands as it strengthen. It still a small storm. IMO

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is Houston/Galveston out of the weeds at this point? The models seem to agree more and more on Central LA.

What percent chance can we put on a potential HOuston/Galveston landfall?

Per NHC, 17% chance over entire 5 day period of TS winds, 3% chance of hurricane winds at Galveston.


Buras, at 44% and 11%, respectively, is the 'winner', or loser, depending on how you look at it.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/282046.shtml

[N2Storms]

[quote="ROCK"][quote="Ed Mahmoud"]Don't know why today's G-IV mission was cancelled. It would have been nice knowing tonight's 0Z models had as much upper air data from the Gulf of Mexico as possible.


Mission scheduled tomorrow, so I think Saturday morning, besides being another day closer in time, models will have better data to process, and we'll have a pretty good idea the area of maximum risk.[/quote]


I would think the G-IV mission would be better suited once Gus actually makes it into the GOM and can sample the building high....[/quote]


Just curious...when is the High Pressure supposed to build back in?

[Stormcenter]

Houston area - Pensacola area still very much in the danger zone so stay tuned of course. Unfortunately we're continuing to be targeted but I'm still holding out hope for a shift tomorrow or Saturday (sorry neighbors).

One thing I must mention, IF the current track were to more or less "pan out" in 4-5 days, the NHC as well as computer models must be applauded for the tremendous advances that have been made in forecasting. We shall see.

I think you may get your shift(westward?)wish in the coming days.

[txag2005]

People sure are on the edge this afternoon....no need for that.