ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aquawind]

unusually high amount of uncertainty in NHC forecast right now - both track and intensity, due to current and upcoming land interactions.

we'll probably have to wait another 24-48hrs when Fay is over Cuba to get any sort of decent idea about FL landfall specifics.

Well Said.

Unfortunately I don't think the VDM will get into the 18Z run but 00z should be the worthy.

[Air Force Met]

AFM....Hey, good buddy!! What do you think about the track we seen by the euro, and somewhat of the GFS from a day or 2 ago...A W or a WSW, short term, track that takes it very close to jamaica?? (just north of there) I think models are gonna end up being too strong in the short term with strength and therefore they are trying to tug and yank this too far east. ??

Howdy...

I think the NHC track is pretty close in the short run and maybe a tad too far east in the long term (day 2/3). The Euro being that far east is good news actually. It gives it less time over water and more time over Cuba....

[rjgator]

Is there a little spin just to the north of the center in the latest visibles?

[TCmet]

One thing for sure, since 10,000 feet mountains couldn't destroy Fay, Cuba won't do much damage to the storm either...This has the potential to be really strong.

Fay was strengthening on approach to DR... so that helped buy some time. Depending on exact track over Cuba - the area in the path right now isn't too mountainous - and Fay's organization at that time, I would expect Fay to at least maintain intensity during the Cuba crossing. The next 24-36 hours and Fay's response to the first time over water as a TS will be telling.

[gatorcane]

here is a loop of the 5 day NHC track cone -- generally it has shifted to the East...

Could Fay miss FL to the east all together? NHC thinks ITS POSSIBLE and why the right end of the cone extends pretty far east of South FL.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Scorpion]

here is a loop of the 5 day NHC track cone -- generally it has shifted to the East...

Could Fay miss FL to the east all together? NHC thinks ITS POSSIBLE and why the right end of the cone extends pretty far east of South FL.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Absolutely not happening.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think if the models stay where they are now and it splits them and hits the west coast of Florida, this has the chance of being a very strong hurricane. On the other hand, if it hits on the other side of Florida, probably nothing more than a tropical storm...

[Blown Away]

Before I go for supplies I wanted to mention no one has credited Lushine in spades...

I've been wanting to, because i had fun researching info on his theory. For it to count Fay must be a cane if she comes to SFL.

[Steve]

>>i think you (and others) make the mistake of assuming people want it going there way , when in fact they are really concerned, and pay attention to details that support their concern

Doesn't matter if one walks in a straight line, zig zags or go in a giant out-of-the-way circle to get to the same place in the end. It's the same thing with the only difference being motive. It's epidemic on storm2k and in the mode of "storm tracking my way is serious business" which, again, regardless of how you get there still gets you to the same place. Many are downright rude about Storm X being their turf. 9 out of 10 times that poster ends up being highly wrong and just waits for the next opportunity to do it again.

IMHO, weak ULL spinning across and south of western Cuba (part of an elongated, splitting trough) is doing the dirty work to break down the nose of the ridge into the eastern Gulf as flow around the large upper high across central Mexico is helping dig down an eastern trough

Animate to 30 if you want to:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Animate the CONUS WV further for greater detail:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
------------------------------------
All that aside, yours truly is still going to go with Dade/Collier Counties then up toward SC, and depening on how far offshore and whether it's fading or still heading N or NNW, possibly North Carolina. Might be wrong, but I don't think that (+/-) is too bad from 5 days back.

/not an official forecast

Steve

[gatorcane]

Well NHC must see something because otherwise there would be no need for the cone to extend east of SE FL.

Personally I agree with you and I don't think it will go to the east.

[shortwave]

I'm thinking Fay has issues with being over water. The best she has looked to date has been over land and mountainous none the less.

I would think Fay would go east of Florida only if she was stronger. For now, per 1km Vis, looks like quite a bit of organization would be required to do that. I would say the NHC is right on target.

[Dean4Storms]

unusually high amount of uncertainty in NHC forecast right now - both track and intensity, due to current and upcoming land interactions.

we'll probably have to wait another 24-48hrs when Fay is over Cuba to get any sort of decent idea about FL landfall specifics.

I agree here, we'll have to wait to begin seeing the turn to be able to get a better handle of where she hits Florida. The turn will answer almost all the questions.

[Blown Away]

here is a loop of the 5 day NHC track cone -- generally it has shifted to the East...

Could Fay miss FL to the east all together? NHC thinks ITS POSSIBLE and why the right end of the cone extends pretty far east of South FL.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Absolutely not happening.

It does not seem likely, but it is not impossible.

[Emmett_Brown]

Fay is looking ragged at the moment. I think it has weakened slightly during the morning, judging from vis picks. She might be steady state until this evening.

[TCmet]

unusually high amount of uncertainty in NHC forecast right now - both track and intensity, due to current and upcoming land interactions.

we'll probably have to wait another 24-48hrs when Fay is over Cuba to get any sort of decent idea about FL landfall specifics.

Well Said.

Unfortunately I don't think the VDM will get into the 18Z run but 00z should be the worthy.

Yeah, 00Z and 12Z model runs are generally more reliable (due to fresh upper-air data at those times).

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1133 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-170000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...
LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...PAHOKEE...
SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...WELLINGTON...LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
SOUTH COUNTY REGIONAL PARK...PALM SPRINGS...FLORIDA GARDENS...
ABERDEEN...BOCA WEST...NAPLES...IMMOKALEE...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...MARKHAM PARK...COCONUT CREEK...
CORAL SPRINGS...TAMARAC...SUNRISE...PLANTATION...DAVIE...
COOPER CITY...HOLLYWOOD...PEMBROKE PINES...MIRAMAR...HOMESTEAD...
FLORIDA CITY...REDLAND...MICCOSUKEE RESORT...KENDALE LAKES...
WEST KENDALL...COUNTRY WALK...SHARK VALLEY...MIAMI...
MIAMI GARDENS...MIAMI LAKES...HIALEAH...DORAL...SOUTH MIAMI...
KENDALL...CUTLER RIDGE...FLAMINGO...JUPITER...WEST PALM BEACH...
BOCA RATON...POMPANO BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...
FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...HOLLYWOOD BEACH...AVENTURA...
MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI SHORES...DOWNTOWN MIAMI...CUTLER BAY...
HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT PARK...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK
1133 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY OVER FAR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FAY...

TROPICAL STORM FAY IS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF HAITI AND BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. FAY
IS MOVING WEST AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY, BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AS IT CROSSES CUBA ON
SUNDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK HAS FAY MOVING INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY AND APPROACH OR PASS VERY
CLOSE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE EFFECT OF FAY COULD BEGIN TO BE
FELT OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND
CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO FOCUS ON ONE
PARTICULAR SCENARIO, BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS TO BEGIN AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
RANGES FROM 45 TO 55 PERCENT, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PERCENT AREA WIDE.

PERSONS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK AS EVEN SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD REPRESENT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS. ALL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE URGED TO CONTINUE REVISING THEIR
HURRICANE PLANS TODAY, AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE PREPAREDNESS
ACTIONS IF WATCHES ARE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO CHECK WITH HOTELS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING PREPAREDNESS
ACTIONS THAT MAY NEED TO BE INITIATED LATER THIS WEEKEND.

THE FOLLOWING ARE BASIC SUGGESTED ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN AT
THIS TIME:

CHECK BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS, DRINKING WATER, CANNED
OR DRIED FOOD, FIRST AID SUPPLIES AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE. HAVE A
SUFFICIENT SUPPLY OF CASH AS ACCESS TO CREDIT CARDS AND AUTOMATED
CASH MACHINES MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE WITHOUT POWER. CHECK FUEL LEVELS
ON AUTOMOBILES, GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS. LOCATE AND STORE
IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS IN A SAFE LOCATION.

MAKE INITIAL PLANS TO DETERMINE WHERE YOU WILL LIKELY BE IN CASE OF
AN APPROACHING STORM. CHECK WHETHER YOU LIVE IN AN EVACUATION ZONE.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SITUATION, PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, AS WELL AS INFORMATION FROM LOCAL
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND MEDIA OUTLETS. YOU CAN ALSO MONITOR THE
LATEST STATEMENTS, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS, FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIAMI ON THE WEB AT
WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

MOLLEDA

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 0statement

[ConvergenceZone]

While I agree that it's weakened, I figured it would be really torn apart badly this morning and barely a tropical depression. The fact that it has held together at least somewhat makes me a bit worried ONLY IF it takes a path into the Gulf....otherwise, not really worried...

[Steve]

>>(Generally speaking a storm moving to my west would be much more impactful to me than a direct hit.)

I'd caveat that to "very generally speaking" as if you took the eyewall from something tremendous, you'd probably wish the storm actually had gone to your west. But I hear what you're saying.

Steve

[Stephanie]

gator - I think that's a pretty big miss and a heck of a right turn. There will need to be something that will have to kick it that way, even if the ridge is breaking down.

Mets??

[Air Force Met]

here is a loop of the 5 day NHC track cone -- generally it has shifted to the East...

Could Fay miss FL to the east all together? NHC thinks ITS POSSIBLE and why the right end of the cone extends pretty far east of South FL.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

OK...for the last time about the cone...

There is no inherent thought process in regards to the cone. All it is is 2/3 of the average statistical error for each valid time.

They don't manipulate the cone to show some added degree of uncertainty. If the forecasts were BETTER...the cone would be smaller and if the forecast WAS better...then it wouldn't be off the east coast of FL...because it wouldn't be in the error.

Sorry...but I get a little torqued at all the posts about the forecast cone that suggest the NHC thinks it could go someplace because the cone is extended to here or there.

THE CONE DOESN'T CHANGE....except when the forecast track does. It will always be the 2/3 average error...until they change the way they do the cone.