ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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MGC
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5181 Postby MGC » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:22 am

Dolly's satellite presentation looks good this morning. Looks like the LLC has finally moved under the MLC. I expect Dolly to gradually intensify and she could be a hurricane as early at tomorrow morning.....MGC
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#5182 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:24 am

I wish no one harm in this storms path, but Dolly is finally getting it together and it's a Beautiful thing to witness.
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Re:

#5183 Postby Category 5 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:24 am

Aric Dunn wrote:We are probably going to have some issues in southern texas in a couple days.


Lets not forget our friends in northern Mexico. This is aiming toward the boarder right now it seems.
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#5184 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:24 am

I believe that she may go under a phase of RI once the convection begins to fire over the center. there are a lot of factors pointing towards RI before landfall
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5185 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:25 am

Yep...hopefully preps are beginning now in South Texas. Looks like models may just nail this one!

Let's see what the warm waters are going to do.
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#5186 Postby Chacor » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:25 am

A reminder that as Dolly starts to approach the U.S. as a hurricane, the NHC will activate its podcast service.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/index.shtml
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5187 Postby Frank2 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:25 am

Per the 11 AM TCD:

DOLLY IS STILL MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...300/16...TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.


Hello? Next few days? The system is ready to cross 90W - at it's current rate, it'll be inland in less than 48 hours...

Not to critiize, but, perhaps it's time for a bit of common sense here...

Frank

P.S. When I worked at the NHC, the models were only considered an option - the forecaster still based his forecast on his God-given skills as a meteorologist, not on what the computer was telling him...
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5188 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:25 am

Still moving NW...have to look at the actual center in the bigger void area...She is about to take off tonight..

Image
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Re: Re:

#5189 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:25 am

Category 5 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:We are probably going to have some issues in southern texas in a couple days.


Lets not forget our friends in northern Mexico. This is aiming toward the boarder right now it seems.

The official forecast is there, but the guidance is as far north as matagorda(sp?) bay.
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Re: Re:

#5190 Postby LAwxrgal » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:26 am

Category 5 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:We are probably going to have some issues in southern texas in a couple days.


Lets not forget our friends in northern Mexico. This is aiming toward the boarder right now it seems.


:( You do realize that a storm that lands right on the border would put South Texas in the (usually) stronger right front quadrant.
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#5191 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:26 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
Wow, she has really grown in size! She's probably gonna grow larger in size as the day goes on. What a beautiful, yet scary thing to watch.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5192 Postby americanrebel » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:27 am

And that high that is over the Northern part of the GoM is suppose to be completely gone in 36 hours, so there is a pretty good chance that this system will make its turn to the North in oh about 24 hours. With the prediction that she will slow down in her forward motion, this could really become a MAJOR factor.

The above is just my opinion, there is no scientific reasoning behind it. No organization backs what I say at all.
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Re: Re:

#5193 Postby Category 5 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:27 am

LAwxrgal wrote:
Category 5 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:We are probably going to have some issues in southern texas in a couple days.


Lets not forget our friends in northern Mexico. This is aiming toward the boarder right now it seems.


:( You do realize that a storm that lands right on the border would put South Texas in the (usually) stronger right front quadrant.


Oh I'm well aware. But all parts of a Hurricane can kill.

Remember Katrina?
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5194 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:28 am

:uarrow:

Definitely looks to be getting better organized after struggling for what seems like ever.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5195 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:28 am

Frank2 wrote:Per the 11 AM TCD:

DOLLY IS STILL MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...300/16...TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.


Hello? Next few days? The system is ready to cross 90W - at it's current rate, it'll be inland in less than 48 hours...

Not to critiize, but, perhaps it's time for a bit of common sense here...

Frank

P.S. When I worked at the NHC, the models were only considered an option - the forecaster still based his forecast on his God-given skills as a meteorologist, not on what the computer was telling him...


Frank most of the models showing a significant slow down Tomorrow..some even show a stall for almost a day..not out of the question and should be noted...
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5196 Postby Sjones » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:31 am

The big question is will the high remain strong and in place or will it weaken and break down allowing a north movement...
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Re: Re:

#5197 Postby LAwxrgal » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:32 am

Category 5 wrote:Remember Katrina?


All too well, unfortunately. :cry: You have no idea.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5198 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:33 am

People are being fooled because of the convection building to thw west. This storm is not moving W..
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5199 Postby americanrebel » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:35 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

She is really starting to look real good, as soon as she gets over more open water she could be very dangerous. For some reason I still think they have the center about 40 miles to far South.
Last edited by americanrebel on Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5200 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:35 am

Sjones wrote:The big question is will the high remain strong and in place or will it weaken and break down allowing a north movement...


The NHC satellite overlays no longer have the High positioned south of the TX/LA coast.
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