ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Stormcenter]

Ok so I'm going crazy now?
This is not west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I am not being fooled, as I am staring at rotation center, which matched well with last VDM, and it is within a few degrees of due West. Unless this turns more Northwest-ward in a hurry, this will hit more than just a little South of the Mexico border. IMHO.

This is one is not as cut and dry. I think the only safe thing to say is that it will either hit Mexico or Texas.

[HouTXmetro]

If you go off the models alone a majority of them are north of Brownsville. So' extreme NE-Mexico up to the middle TX coast will be seriously under the gun no matter what.

[Tireman4]

12z models..from dan meador at khou @ houston

http://www.khou.com/weather/dan_meador/ ... 21_12z.jpg
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Are the models trending northward?

[fci]

Ok so I'm going crazy now?
This is not west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I am not being fooled, as I am staring at rotation center, which matched well with last VDM, and it is within a few degrees of due West. Unless this turns more Northwest-ward in a hurry, this will hit more than just a little South of the Mexico border. IMHO.

The NHC 11 AM Advisory and discussion goes into this issue in detail!

[gatorcane]

center seems to be tracking just a little N of the forecast points:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

Dolly appears to organizing. The last frame seems to show a bit more of a NW wobble.

[ColdFusion]

12z models..from dan meador at khou @ houston

http://www.khou.com/weather/dan_meador/ ... 21_12z.jpg
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Thanks for the post! But you can see that the current position is south of where most of the runs say it should be right now.

The ones that initialize correctly have a much more Southern bias to them.

[Kludge]

12z models..from dan meador at khou @ houston

http://www.khou.com/weather/dan_meador/ ... 21_12z.jpg
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Are the models trending northward?

It appears so, when compared with last night's runs. Seems that only a few outliers still take her into Mexico.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12z models..from dan meador at khou @ houston

http://www.khou.com/weather/dan_meador/ ... 21_12z.jpg
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Thanks for the post! But you can see that the current position is south of where most of the runs say it should be right now.

The ones that initialize correctly have a much more Southern bias to them.

Ditto!

[artist]

If you are in the cone or just outside you need to prepare, things happen as we all know and to assume that it appears to be moving further south of nw could cost you alot of time, if indeed it is just a temporary jog or illusion. According the NHC forecast points it is actually a tad north of the points.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dolly appears to organizing. The last frame seems to show a bit more of a NW wobble.

Thats not a wobble. It has been moving that way all morning. It only looks west because of the lack of convection on the southern side. Look at the center in the first frame, and the center in the last frame, and movement shows to be on the upper end of wnw.

[Tireman4]

Does the next advisory come out at 2 pm Eastern?

[Brent]

Does the next advisory come out at 2 pm Eastern?

Yeah, an intermediate advisory, likely no major changes.

[cheezyWXguy]

Does the next advisory come out at 2 pm Eastern?

Yeah, an intermediate advisory, likely no major changes.

could be a little stronger though. Pressure is likely slowly falling and the sw inflow channel is reestablishing itself. This may be preparation for some big strengthening tonight or tomorrow.

[HouTXmetro]

Based on the size of this I'm thinking Tropical Storm watches may need to ve extended to the TX/LA border.

[Brent]

Does the next advisory come out at 2 pm Eastern?

Yeah, an intermediate advisory, likely no major changes.

could be a little stronger though. Pressure is likely slowly falling and the sw inflow channel is reestablishing itself. This may be preparation for some big strengthening tonight or tomorrow.

Agree with that. It's definitely looking better, especially considering it was apparently an open wave last night.

and I think this is going to be one huge storm, squalls probably all the way to the TX/LA border even if it comes in between Corpus and Brownsville.

[fci]

So many of you are quibbling over a move a tad west or WNW etc....

Classic wobble watching has now begun in earnest.

Bottom line is that if you live on the Texas coast you are in the firing line of potentially a strong hurricane. I would suggest ignoring the wobbles, listening to the NHC and Local Officials and following their guidance and that of the Pro Mets that post here and on the Tropical Analysis Forum.

Stop trying to play "gotcha" and prove how smart you think you are by trying to find mistakes in, or disprove; what you are officially being told.

The NHC knows what it is doing as do the Pro Mets here!

[Steve]

>>I am not being fooled, as I am staring at rotation center, which matched well with last VDM, and it is within a few degrees of due West.

Ed,

While I think you (like myself) are one of the top few [tm] posters on this site, I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you here. There were a couple of visible frames where that was the appearance, but then (as happens with stair-stepping storms) it jogs a bit north of WNW to even out somewhere WNW. In any event, the center appears as though it will pass quite a bit north of the next forecast point as plotted on the SSD visible unless it flattens out back to a strong westerly wobble. JMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Steve

[HurricaneHunter914]

Based on the size of this I'm thinking Tropical Storm watches may need to ve extended to the TX/LA border.

She'll most likely grow larger as she moves away from the Yucatan.

[artist]

So many of you are quibbling over a move a tad west or WNW, slgiht etc....

Classic wobble watching has now begun in earnest.

Bottom line is that if you live on the Texas coast you are in the firing line of potentially a strong hurricane. I would suggest ignoring the wobbles, listening to the NHC and Local Officials and following their guidance and that of the Pro Mets that post here and on the Tropical Analysis Forum.

Stop trying to play "gotcha" and prove how smart you think you are by trying to find mistakes in, or disprove; what you are officially being told.

The NHC knows what it is doing as do the Pro Mets here!

great post!

I understand the fear some may be having and hoping it will go away as having been there done that it is the last thing you want to see. But don't let that get in the way of listening to your local authorities, NHC, etc. fci, once again , great post.