ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[srainhoutx]

This is why I think there could be just Due WEST movement for today.. The ridge is still pretty strong to the north. Remember she is barely a TS right now. Winds are probably only 40mph or so.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... zoom=&time

Still thinking a northerly component will not happen until S of The Isle of Youth, and will be a gradual turn IMHO.

[senorpepr]

Update:

I've dropped the zoomed chart w/ radar since we're out of San Juan's range. Unfortunately, I can't get Cuban radar to automatically ingest into my script or I'd utilize that.

I've also added the NHC track for Fay.

Once Fay begins to approach Florida, I'll add a whole new suite of zoomed products, locked on Florida.

[xironman]

I am looking at a possible LLC just on the SW tip of haiti.

That is what I see, am not sure about being headed directly for Cuba's mountains. As far as being decoupled, that is the steady state of this storm.

[tailgater]

if it has decoupled and is moving toward the mountains of E Cuba, then it is probably a weakening depression.

However, that feature may be transient

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't find a LLC again

[artist]

thanks senor!

[Aric Dunn]

well hello .... i had a nice rest ..... and im sure you all are have been having nice disscusions and im sure there has been no bashing or other things...

[fci]

[quote="ConvergenceZone

HEHE, I agree....I'm feeling MUCH better this morning than I was last night....Last night was a bit scary, thinking what horrible intensity this could have become had it got into the warm bath waters of the gulf...... Of course, let's cross our fingers that the models don't switch back again...

We then will have to worry about the Bahamas and the East Coast. She'll still be over warm water...

I just don't think the conditions will be near as good for development if it goes east of Florida. As they say, it takes more than just warm water to support a hurricane...I do think it can be a tropical storm though (just my own opinion).... ---- off to watch the olympics ----...will be interested to see tomorrow how this storm is evolved...[/quote]

I have to admit that I am confused.
A track east of here is the best for all (except maybe the Bahamas) but where did all these people come to the conclusion that fay will go east of Florida?
I don't see any models indicating it.
No Pro Mets saying that it is going to happen.

Maybe I missed something but I see no evidence that Fay will go east of the peninisula unless we are relying on Thursday's model runs.

And, BTW; I WANT it to go east of Florida and miss out state completely.

[cycloneye]

Pic at 12:32 PM EDT:

[cpdaman]

I just don't think the conditions will be near as good for development if it goes east of Florida. As they say, it takes more than just warm water to support a hurricane...I do think it can be a tropical storm though (just my own opinion).... ---- off to watch the olympics ----...will be interested to see tomorrow how this storm is evolved...

come on convergence zone, we all know you will be back to the site, peeking within 90 minutes to see "how she is evolving"

[Dean4Storms]

This is why I think there could be just Due WEST movement for today.. The ridge is still pretty strong to the north. Remember she is barely a TS right now. Winds are probably only 40mph or so.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... zoom=&time

I suppose one would have to wonder if she would stay in the E-W flow and miss turning into the weakness if she remains this shallow.

[xironman]

If you look at this pic

Pic at 12:32 PM EDT:

. The circulation I see is very close to that bursting thunderstorm just north of the southwest tip of Haiti.

[funster]

How did the center jump to 19.5? I though the NHC had it at 19 with the last update. Or maybe no one really knows where it is because it is gone now.

[vbhoutex]

Looking at some sat loops and radar posted here and looking at another sat loop I see a partially exposed LLCC just above the SW tip of the peninsula. With plenty of convection firing just to the S of it I will not be surprised to see some consolidation and restacking of the MLC(Definitley SE of the LLC)now that Fay is back over water. The mountains did disrupt this storm much more than I think many thought it would(per yesterdays discussions), with the circ centers back over water I do expect a slow consolidation and stregnthening trend to start pretty soon. Basic track still appears to be almost due West. JMHO.

[Blown Away]

Does anyone else see the LLC near 19.5 74.5?

It shows up well on the Ramsdis floater........

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

Yep, pretty clear to me moving WNW, exposed center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

If you look at this pic

Pic at 12:32 PM EDT:

. The circulation I see is very close to that bursting thunderstorm just north of the southwest tip of Haiti.

I don't agree, it's exposed near 19.5N/74.5W.

[jaxfladude]

Latest Euro takes a weird track:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081600!!!step/

Keeps it a TS inland from the Atlantic not from the west coast of Fla.......totally unlikely.......

[canetracker]

Latest Steering Layers

[Vortex]

the center is not exposed

[HURAKAN]

The center is exactly under that burst of convection north of the tip of that peninsula in Haiti.

[vbhoutex]

Does anyone else see the LLC near 19.5 74.5?

It shows up well on the Ramsdis floater........

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

Yep, pretty clear to me moving WNW, exposed center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Based on that loop I see 19.4N, 79.8W or very close to that. Once the consolidation begins I wouldn't be surprised if it actually "moves" a little SW of where it appears now. Honestly after three different visibles it is not easy to pinpoint it. When the plane gets in we will know more(DUH!!! ).