ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

This situation is also giving in to the wise cracks who like to make light of the science of meteorology. I already heard one guy today say that he thinks of Astrology whenever he hears someone say model runs.

[KWT]

Yep I think its pretty obvious the center slid SW, very interesting, it is starting to become rather odd how all these systems seem to end up in water when they go past Jamaica.

[jaxfladude]

Yep I think its pretty obvious the center slid SW, very interesting, it is starting to become rather odd how all these systems seem to end up in water when they go past Jamaica.

YO mon it's the RED STRIPE BEER effect...

[srainhoutx]

I guess I am not understanding something, everybody seems so set on on central Louisiana along with the threat remaining or increasingly east of there. From all I can see and gather it seems to me the threat is increasing more towards the west of central Louisiana. I am not saying currently Louisiana coast is not at the highest risk, but that I expect more shift to the west that only a few here seem to agree on.

This posts is NOT a official forecast and should not be used as such. This is just the opinion of the myself and is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Haven't seen the pro mets chime in much today on what their predictions are, is this because they haven't changed or waiting seeing how long current trends last, or just more data?

I don't really feel confident in where final landfall will be. I'm thinking that if Gustav deviates from the current track (mine is toward eastern Vermilion Bay) then it would more likely move inland more to the west, possibly even toward the upper TX coast.

Thanks wxman57. Some need to read this.

[jaxfladude]

Yeah, what wxman57 said

[Agua]

It just goes to show that we should remember how much of a surprise we might see. As early as 2 am this morning, it's present location south of Jamaica was outside the cone. Just goes to show the kind of error you might see for a 120 hour cone...

There ya go. I said last night before the SW motion I wouldn't bet 3 dollars the storm made it through the windward passage based simply on the uncertainty of forecasting and, " 'lo and behold", it ran into Jamaica.

Unfortunately for everyone who was looking forward to a labor day weekend, unless the storm veers off on something totally unexpected, it will not be until sometime Saturday, maybe Sunday morning, once the thing is in the Gulf before we can narrow it down to within a couple hundred miles which, by the way, is approximately the error encompassed by the cone 2-3 days out - that's why they have the cone.

[KWT]

Really this could still go just about anywhere in the central gulf, I think from Houston to Mobile is at greatest risk, just got to hope the core remains small.

[Smurfwicked]

This posts is NOT a official forecast and should not be used as such. This is just the opinion of the myself and is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Maybe there isn't any science involved in this, but it does seem sort of logical from the direction Gustav was approaching Jamaica that it would naturally want to go either north or south of it to avoid land when water was so close in either direction.

I don't really feel confident in where final landfall will be. I'm thinking that if Gustav deviates from the current track (mine is toward eastern Vermilion Bay) then it would more likely move inland more to the west, possibly even toward the upper TX coast.

Thanks for the reply wxman57, your insight is always appreciated!

[Brent]

NHC confirms the center on the south coast...

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES... 25 KM...WEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 300 MILES...
485 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

[expat2carib]

Advisory #4: Gustav moves across Jamaica

The Event: Gustav is pouring heavy rains on Jamaica as a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. At 5:00pm EDT today (August 28), the centre of Tropical Storm Gustav was located near Latitude 18.1 North, Longitude 76.6 West, or about 15 miles (25 kilometers) east northeast of Kingston, Jamaica or about 310 miles (505 kilometres) east southeast of Grand Cayman.

Prognosis: Gustav is moving toward the west at about 6 mp/h (9km/h) and is expected to turn west northwest and northwest during the next couple of days. On this path the centre of the system will cross Jamaica tonight and move near or over the Cayman Islands Friday or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are at about 70 mp/h (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend outwards up to 45 miles (75 km/h) from the centre. Some weakening is possible as Gustav crosses Jamaica, however the system is expected to strengthen on Friday and Saturday and could become a hurricane by tomorrow. Coastal storm surge of between 1 and 3 feet above normal tide levels can be expected along southern parishes.

Gustav is expected to produce rainfall of between 6 to 12 inches across Jamaica, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches. Flash flooding and landslides are likely in vulnerable areas.

National Response:
At 3pm today, the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), Jamaica advised that evacuations have been carried out in some vulnerable areas (please see attached for details).

The New Castle main road is impassable. Wind damage has been reported in Happy Grove and Grange Hill in Portland. Storm surge has been reported in Long Bay in the parish.

140 Emergency shelters have been identified across the island and prepared for activation and shelter managers have been placed on standby. So far, 78 persons are reported to be in shelters.

Parish Emergency Operations Centre (PEOC) have been activated

Emergency and relief supplies have been pre-positioned and deployed to regional stores to the North, West and Southern regions

The following pre-impact needs list has been developed.


Pre-Impact List Description of Goods QTY in Stock QTY Required
Tarpaulins 1200 8800
Blankets 2500 5500
Water Containers 3000 7000
Sleeping Cots 3200 6800
Hygiene Kit- Family ---- 4000
Generator 25 25
Lanterns- Battery 1200 1800
Flashlight 300 650
Foam Pads 1500 3500
Plastic Sheeting (rolls) 300 200
Quick Erect Shelter --- 3



Regional Response: The Regional Response Mechanism (RRM) remains on standby and continues to monitor.

Other emergency support personnel also remain on standby to support Jamaica and other territories should this become necessary.
The CDERA CU and Belize continue to monitor Tropical Storm Gustav with regard to any potential impacts.
In addition to TS Gustav CDERA CU continues to the monitor two tropical waves and Tropical Storm Hanna.

[LAwxrgal]

Hi, Gustav sliding off the Jamaican mountains was totally unpredicted by the models and unexpected. Will this make a difference in the endgame?

[pablolopez26]

Really this could still go just about anywhere in the central gulf, I think from Houston to Mobile is at greatest risk, just got to hope the core remains small.

I agree with this as well. My best guess is still on Gustav making landfall on the Tx/La border. near where Eduaord (sp) made landfall.

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

[dwg71]

convection on southside is dying off, and its now more concentrated over land.. and northeastern side of island.

Expect a little more weakening in the short term, imo.

[KWT]

LAwxrgal, in the short term it may make a slight differnece though the end result will probably roughly be the same, maybe a slight shift but the NHC was expecting it to track south of the Jamaica anyway this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

clearly south of kingston
at that time anyway


you know the funny thing about that image is the nHC never put a position where that image is at.. ?? interesting

[tolakram]

[Agua]

Hi, Gustav sliding off the Jamaican mountains was totally unpredicted by the models and unexpected. Will this make a difference in the endgame?

Probably to the extent it affects forward speed.

[KWT]

convection on southside is dying off, and its now more concentrated over land.. and northeastern side of island.

Expect a little more weakening in the short term, imo.

Note very deep convection just to the east of the circulation however, looksl ike Gustav is back overland now so we probably see some slight weakening as you suggest.

[Aric Dunn]

convection on southside is dying off, and its now more concentrated over land.. and northeastern side of island.

Expect a little more weakening in the short term, imo.

Note very deep convection just to the east of the circulation however, looksl ike Gustav is back overland now so we probably see some slight weakening as you suggest.

over land ......hmmmmm barely