ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

clearly south of kingston
at that time anyway


you know the funny thing about that image is the nHC never put a position where that image is at.. ?? interesting

.

[Normandy]

Center of Gustav is not over Jamaica, it is just south of Kingston. Radar images support this, as well as the E wind being reported out of Kingston. Also, Kingston was reporting 42kt sustained winds...indicating Gustav is at least 40 kts.

[Smurfwicked]

I don't know what to make of this info. My buddy works for LADW&F. His boss called him noonish instructing him to remove the boats from the water, hook them to the trucks in Pointe ala Hache, La.(lower Plaq. parish), transport trucks & boats to BR. Once there, his boss tells him to drive assets back to Pointe ala Hache. He is on his way back. He was told Houston would be the area of LF.
Rumor has it that Nash Roberts Jr sent an email to someone at LSU stating Gus was Houston bound. That is what LADW&F based their decision on to have equipment moved back to the field. I'm sticking with official info. leaving if evac is issued.

This is NOT official info. Just what I heard off the grapevine.

Even if this does end up being Houston bound I bet he's going to have take those boats out the water again. There is going to still be a wide area of concentration even once Gustav edges the GOM that should still keep NO greatly into the cone. JMO, but that was absolute ignorance.

And I am one to agree that right now it looks more like a SETX/Western La landfall, but certainly NO is not out the woods anytime soon!

This posts is NOT a official forecast and should not be used as such. This is just the opinion of the myself and is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Normandy, that radar image is a little old now, center probably is just about back overland again now but don't think land will have time to do a huge deal to the inner core.

[PTrackerLA]

In my opinion, Gustav now being just south of Jamaica has very little impact on the end game. The most important thing to watch for is how he moves the next 48 hours and upon entering the GOM. Once he enters the GOM, I will totally "buy" the track.


A little OT: On the way home from work I noticed quite a few folks with generators and plywood in the back of their trucks. Glad to see everyone taking this seriously. Pretty sure we'll be having at least "some" wind and rain come Tuesday so it's a good time to prepare for the worst. Not to mention the current forecast passes the eye over my house.

[cpdaman]

what day is this suppose to actually start moving......i mean does anyone think they will push back the landfall another day ......again

seems landfall at this pace would be in october

this is cruel and unusual punishment for gulf coast residents

[vacanechaser]

Cuba needs to drop the hurricane warning immediately

hmmmmm!! interesting... that would have been foolish huh????

thats why the nhc never knee jerks to such things... glad they are calling the shots




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

its not that big of a shift at all cpdaman, its now back inline with the earlier forecast this morning for this to go just to the south of Jamaica. The shift yesterday was pretty large and the center reformed a good deal further south of where it was before.

[cpdaman]

its not that big of a shift at all cpdaman, its now back inline with the earlier forecast this morning for this to go just to the south of Jamaica. The shift yesterday was pretty large and the center reformed a good deal further south of where it was before.

i wasn't really talking about path just time

[Sean in New Orleans]

Looks like, from satellite, that Jamaica may be doing a little damage to the system. Not much, but some.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks like, from satellite, that Jamaica may be doing a little damage to the system. Not much, but some.

If you look at this loop it shows a huge blowup in convection.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[6SpeedTA95]

Looks like, from satellite, that Jamaica may be doing a little damage to the system. Not much, but some.

The interaction with Jamaica will no doubt impair the storm. Given the warm SSTs and high TCHP in the area it is the island of Jamaica that is keeping this thing below hurricane strength at the moment.

[expat2carib]

- US Embassy report Thurs am

* From: W W <pilotmaf at yahoo.com>
* Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2008 17:14:49 -0700 (PDT)

Had one flight to Jacmel. Noticed lots of flooded areas. Kids swimming in the
streets. Lots of new erosion in the mountains north of Jacmel. Below is the
warden report from this morning.

Following is the latest information I have received:
· The Embassy has received reports of many roads impassable and damage
to buildings caused by flash flooding in various regions throughout Haiti.

· The road from Port-au-Prince to the Dominican Republic is currently
flooded and impassable.

· The Port-au-Prince International Airport is open again and American
Airlines reported that extra flights have been added today (8/28) to their
daily schedule of flights to accommodate those who could not fly in/out on
Tuesday (8/26) and Wednesday (8/27).

· MINUSTAH Operations reports to date (8/28, 10:00 a.m.): 12 are dead
and 9 injured as a result of the storm.

· Our Embassy Warden in Jacmel was in constant communication with me
throughout the storm. She reported that Jacmel and its environs were hard hit
by the T.S. Gustav’s heavy rains, winds and flash flooding, and that the
flood waters are anywhere from two to six feet deep. People are in need of
food and shelter in this region.

· Our Embassy Warden in Jeremie reported this morning that the
Grand’Anse River has overflowed its banks and that roads are impassable.



http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/haiti.shtml

[cycloneye]

Best track at 00:00 UTC mantains intensity at 60kts.

AL, 07, 2008082900, , BEST, 0, 178N, 770W, 60, 988, TS, 50

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not sure why people keep mentioning Houston, as models continue to generally aim at Louisiana and Mississippi. The GFDL has been almost constant, with slight adjustments Eastward each run for 6 runs now, slowly shifting from West of NOLA to East of NOLA.


Anyway, I'm keeping an eye on the interweb and TV, in case the improbable happens, always better safe then sorry, but the area I'd be most nervous in (and I'm only an amateur) is Cameron, LA to Pensacola.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_07

[dwg71]

Ed, the models are as tightly clustered as ever.

[HURAKAN]

Cuba needs to drop the hurricane warning immediately

hmmmmm!! interesting... that would have been foolish huh????

thats why the nhc never knee jerks to such things... glad they are calling the shots


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

There hasn't been a hurricane warning in Cuba since this morning. Now the western part of the country is under Hurricane Watch. I don't understand where the confusion comes here.

[Flakeys]

Jamaica Radio http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

[6SpeedTA95]

Not sure why people keep mentioning Houston, as models continue to generally aim at Louisiana and Mississippi. The GFDL has been almost constant, with slight adjustments Eastward each run for 6 runs now, slowly shifting from West of NOLA to East of NOLA.


Anyway, I'm keeping an eye on the interweb and TV, in case the improbable happens, always better safe then sorry, but the area I'd be most nervous in (and I'm only an amateur) is Cameron, LA to Pensacola.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_07

A lot of the mets though feel the GFDL is breaking the ridge down too rapidly and as a result has the storm moving too far east. Only time will tell if that plays out or not.

[Stormcenter]

Ed, the models are as tightly clustered as ever.

Two of the NHC's top models have very different landfall locations. One is on the TX/La boarder and the other on Mobile, AL. I wouldn't call that tightly cluster. That is several hundred miles apart!