ATL: IKE Discussion

[tolakram]

Finally got caught up with the model thread. Seems this motions was predicted as of late, so no real surprises. I can always forecast the obvious with great accuracy!

[Steve]

>>Steve, you are interesting... That is the only reason we like you...

LMAO. How about because I'm easily Top 3 non-pro on the site?

Get those preps handled Rock in case you need them. Things were ugly in Lafourche this past week - no power, no hot water, no cable, no internet, no groceries. We only had to exist one day without the power thanks to a generator, but then we had to get gas to run it which was also not the easiest thing in the world to do. I managed to find (FINALLY) some L14-30 4 prong generator plugs so my brother in law can hook his generator up straight to his power box/panel in the future. He's got about 70 gallons of gas on hand for this weekend - if necessary. Do what you gotta do. Obviously we had plenty of progresso soup, chips, nuts, water, cookies, etc., but all that gets harder to come by as the days get closer. And I'm sure I don't have to tell you how bad Houston traffic is on a good day. Imagine a bunch of crazed people panicing because they can't find what they need. Ugly. Do what you can tonight, and if you don't need that stuff, you can always use it later. That way you can be cracking a cold one when everyone else is hustling to cover their ***.

Steve

[KWT]

I don't think mainland S FL will get more than 20 to 30 mph winds and little rain due to substanence around the storm.I don't see us getting 2 to 4 " of rain like they were predicting.I think when the NWS made their forecast Ike would have been moving WNW across the spine of Cuba, not going into the Caribbean on a due west heading. If I were in Cozamel, MX I'd pay attention to Ike.

No models, even the UKMO gets even close to Yucatan, they've got nothing to worry about the high doesn't extend that far west with any real strength at all so a WNW motion should occur between 83-85W...if that still doesn't happen then things do become a little more complicated but for now we havee to wait and see.

Not impossible that it decides to stay on a westerly course longer then progged but who knows!

[AJC3]

Yup. Will probably slow the rate of weakening, or halt it altogether. I'm not thinking it will reintensify in the short term unless it somehow manages to continue moving due westward and eventually over the Isle of Youth, but it wouldn't be out of the question for it to do so.

I agree however the thing any water track will do is help to steady the inner core from its current degeneration trend which is not a good thing really. Exactly how long this can keep up is important, a few hours over water won't make a huge difference to its strength when it enters the gulf but longer and we may see some differences...

I agree on all counts. In fact, the more I look at it, the more I think it's weakening is probably over and done with. You can aleady see the ring of convection associated with the outer eyewall blowing up. I could post some real-high res stuff, but it would be a bandwidth buster, and I only have 5MB of storage space myself.

[Frank2]

GFDL continues to amaze. This is the south of Cuba track of GFDL of two days ago you are seeing here. That flat west is something I didn't expect but there it is. This is like Dean and Felix where no one expected a strong ridge all the way across to Central America. Ike is about to get all water again. Should be interesting after what this area did for Gus recently.

Sanibel,

It's so ironic that this reminds me of Mr. Suddaby in "Lorenzo's Oil", who was almost discouraged from working on the oil because his employer's thought his long hours of research were daft - we thought the same of Dr. Ooyama when he was working on the GFDL - it's a good thing that both didn't listen to the calls from those of us who though they should "not work so hard"!

Frank

[cpdaman]

i think it's time for little cayman to get at least a tropical storm warning, no?

[KWT]

Sanibel, the GFDL is nailing this with its runs from two days ago, funnily enough it did the same thing with Hanna as well, quite odd but impressive at the same time, though UKMO and ECM doing a good job.

AJC3, I was rather hoping that Ike's inner core woyld get ruined over a 24-36hrs land stretch but if it can stay over the water for any period of time then things do beocme more complicated and the odds of a much stronger system in the gulf increases.

[boca]

KWT I'm just watching this storm like you with amazment.I wouldn't of thought that Ike would make it into the Caribbean, but it looks like it will.I'm just saying that residents around the Yucatan need to keep an eye on Ike just in case the due west course continues.

[gboudx]

Monday AM update from Jeff Lidner(not that Masters guy).
Sorry, if already posted by another member. I don't have the time to look back through page after page.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1818035#p1818035

[AJC3]

Looking at cuban radar looks to me that even if Ike started going NW now.. it's still going back over water. Kind of a given at this point.

Yup. Will probably slow the rate of weakening, or halt it altogether. I'm not thinking it will reintensify in the short term unless it somehow manages to continue moving due westward and eventually over the Isle of Youth, but it wouldn't be out of the question for it to do so.

Just a question from a weather lover..What would keep it from reintensifying if it goes into the carribean? Thanks in advance!

Mainly proximity to land. When it made landfall, it had an outer eyewall, which it still has if you look closely at radar and satellite, imagery. Inflow into the core would still be disrupted, unless it could get quite a few miles separation from the coast. The water it is about to traverse is extremely warm, but rather shallow near the coast, and its heat content can get used up pretty easily. However, a few miles southward and it gets into very deep water and some of the highest deep oceanic heat content available in the basin.

[Sabanic]

Monday AM update from Jeff Lidner(not that Masters guy).
Sorry, if already posted by another member. I don't have the time to look back through page after page.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1818035#p1818035

Basically the same thing he said last night as far as final destination is concerned. He seems much moer confident in where Ike will end up then does the NHC.

[KWT]

The other thing I'm seeing on the sat.imagery is the dry area that was present does seem to be filling in slowly.

anyway now we'll see whether Ike can re-stabalise its inner core again and build it back up to some degree.

The other question is just how far west can Ike go before it eventually lifts out north of west?

[tolakram]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1156.shtml
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


Why would Ike bend north?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html


I don't understand steering, at all, just looking for an explanation.

[gboudx]

Monday AM update from Jeff Lidner(not that Masters guy).
Sorry, if already posted by another member. I don't have the time to look back through page after page.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1818035#p1818035

Basically the same thing he said last night as far as final destination is concerned. He seems much moer confident in where Ike will end up then does the NHC.

To be fair, you don't know what the NHC is discussing behind the Public Advisory's. The NHC's forecasted path is pretty much in the same general area as jeff, so not sure what you're referring to with jeff being more confident than them.

[carversteve]

Mainly proximity to land. When it made landfall, it had an outer eyewall, which it still has if you look closely at radar and satellite, imagery. Inflow into the core would still be disrupted, unless it could get quite a few miles separation from the coast. The water it is about to traverse is extremely warm, but rather shallow near the coast, and its heat content can get used up pretty easily. However, a few miles southward and it gets into very deep water and some of the highest deep oceanic heat content available in the basin.[/quote]
Thank you for that explanation..was great!! I learn new things on this board daily...and it is great to follow these canes with some of the best mets around!

[Sabanic]

Monday AM update from Jeff Lidner(not that Masters guy).
Sorry, if already posted by another member. I don't have the time to look back through page after page.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1818035#p1818035

Basically the same thing he said last night as far as final destination is concerned. He seems much moer confident in where Ike will end up then does the NHC.

To be fair, you don't know what the NHC is discussing behind the Public Advisory's. The NHC's forecasted path is pretty much in the same general area as jeff, so not sure what you're referring to with jeff being more confident than them.

I agree but in their 5AM discussion the NHC said that at this time they have no idea. That is why the cone covers such a large area. So by nailing down a specific area for landfall 5-6 days out he is sure sounding as though he knows something that they do not.

[AJC3]

The other thing I'm seeing on the sat.imagery is the dry area that was present does seem to be filling in slowly.

anyway now we'll see whether Ike can re-stabalise its inner core again and build it back up to some degree.

The other question is just how far west can Ike go before it eventually lifts out north of west?

Here's a closeup of the inner core convection blowing up along the outer eyewall...

Bandwitdh alert...1MB...please don't embed this in a reply!

[cpdaman]

jeff linder says nearly all models show this increasing in size(from land interaction) to becoming a hurricane taking up nearly the entire gulf of mexico........


although i wonder if more limited land interaction (than models originally thought) may lessen the projected size

[KWT]

NHC track is going to have to shift a little to the south in the short term basedd on the more westerly and of course if that happens it buys Ike more time over water and a good chunk away from land that was expected to happen.

I'm seeing still close to due west, maybe a tiny bit north of west but its not easy to tell when a system is close to the coast I tend to find.

[jinftl]

Tropical storm force winds have expanded to 200 miles from the center, with the furthest reach in the NE quadrant as of 5am update. That is up from 140 miles from the center yesterday. That additional 60 miles could mean that even on a track that stays west of key west, south fl may see ts gusts at least in scattered squalls.

We are already getting the winds your mention below....I don't think Ike has made its closest approach to Sfl yet...and i say that knowing the 'closest approach' may be 200+ miles away.


NWS Miami wind oberv at 10am Monday:

W PALM BEACH E21
FT LAUDER-EXEC NE21G29
FT LAUDERDALE E20G26
POMPANO BEACH E21G30
PEMBROKE PINES E22G31
OPA LOCKA NE22
MIAMI E17G26
WEST KENDALL E20G26
HOMESTEAD NE17G29

I don't think mainland S FL will get more than 20 to 30 mph winds and little rain due to substanence around the storm.I don't see us getting 2 to 4 " of rain like they were predicting.I think when the NWS made their forecast Ike would have been moving WNW across the spine of Cuba, not going into the Caribbean on a due west heading. If I were in Cozamel, MX I'd pay attention to Ike.