ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed, the models are as tightly clustered as ever.

You betcha. Lousiana or Mississippi, and they haven't been shifting that much. Every time one shifts the slightest bit West, someone jumps on it to assert it Gustav is coming to Houston.


I'll repeat, I'm paying attention, everyone should, in case the unlikely happens, and we'll be affected in Houston by the influx of refugees, I'm sure, no matter where the final landfall is.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed, the models are as tightly clustered as ever.

Two of the NHC's top models have very different landfall locations. One is on the TX/La boarder and the other on Mobile, AL. I wouldn't call that tightly cluster.

Wrong thread for this, but central Vermillion Parish (HWRF) is not on the TX/LA state line.

[HouTXmetro]

Ed, the models are as tightly clustered as ever.

You betcha. Lousiana or Mississippi, and they haven't been shifting that much. Every time one shifts the slightest bit West, someone jumps on it to assert it Gustav is coming to Houston.


I'll repeat, I'm paying attention, everyone should, in case the unlikely happens, and we'll be affected in Houston by the influx of refugees, I'm sure, no matter where the final landfall is.

When the models start lining up with the NHC track I think they are becoming very confident.

[BigB0882]

Ed, the models are as tightly clustered as ever.

Two of the NHC's top models have very different landfall locations. One is on the TX/La boarder and the other on Mobile, AL. I wouldn't call that tightly cluster. That is several hundred miles apart!

Well, if you want to get specific, dwg is right. The models are as tightly clustered as ever. Doesn't mean there isn't an outlier or two, just that this is as tight as we have seen them since this storm was being tracked. Certainly doesn't mean they wont change. If that ridge looks like it will be weaker or stronger than thought, you can bet the models will all move accordingly.

[vacanechaser]

Cuba needs to drop the hurricane warning immediately

hmmmmm!! interesting... that would have been foolish huh????

thats why the nhc never knee jerks to such things... glad they are calling the shots


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

There hasn't been a hurricane warning in Cuba since this morning. Now the western part of the country is under Hurricane Watch. I don't understand where the confusion comes here.

there is no confusion here... just tired of the same old thing... i will just leave it at that... he is not the know all end all



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[weatherguru18]

I'm sorry, I don't buy the GFDL at all. I don't buy anything east of N.O.

[Stormcenter]

Ed, the models are as tightly clustered as ever.

You betcha. Lousiana or Mississippi, and they haven't been shifting that much. Every time one shifts the slightest bit West, someone jumps on it to assert it Gustav is coming to Houston.


I'll repeat, I'm paying attention, everyone should, in case the unlikely happens, and we'll be affected in Houston by the influx of refugees, I'm sure, no matter where the final landfall is.

When the models start lining up with the NHC track I think they are becoming very confident.

It's 1,100 plus miles away and you really believe they are very confident? Did you read their discussion?

[Derek Ortt]

Cuba needs to drop the hurricane warning immediately

hmmmmm!! interesting... that would have been foolish huh????

thats why the nhc never knee jerks to such things... glad they are calling the shots




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

and how so... it brought clear skies to Cuba! We didn't need a Hurricane Warning for the weather today.

And NHC does NOT call the shots for Cuba. The Cuban weather service calls the shots (they usually are very good... only remember one real bad decision they made, and that was the Charley warning being issued too late)

[Brent]

Cuba needs to drop the hurricane warning immediately

hmmmmm!! interesting... that would have been foolish huh????

thats why the nhc never knee jerks to such things... glad they are calling the shots


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

There hasn't been a hurricane warning in Cuba since this morning. Now the western part of the country is under Hurricane Watch. I don't understand where the confusion comes here.

Derek was referring to the hurricane warning over Eastern Cuba last night.

[txag2005]

Looks to me like the risk of a Houston hit is pretty low at this point, but we'll have to wait for another day or two to really know I think.

[tolakram]

there is no confusion here... just tired of the same old thing... i will just leave it at that... he is not the know all end all

If you're not confused then the comment is even more out of line than I originally thought. He was referring, over a day ago, to the hurricane warning over eastern Cuba. You don't like what he says put him on your ignore list, your loss. I've got a few there myself and the list isn't getting any smaller. I'm especially grumpy when I have to wade through 10 to 20 posts of total nonsense every time I visit a thread.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks to me like the risk of a Houston hit is pretty low at this point, but we'll have to wait for another day or two to really know I think.

That is what I have been saying. Too bad they scrubbed the G-IV data mission over the Gulf today, the 0Z models could have been fed warm, tasty data fresh from the Gulf. Tomorrow nights 0Z models should get the G-IV, if they don't go cancel again for the third day in a row.


BTW, why is someone sniping at Derek? Personal history?

[stormy1970al]

One thing I can tell you after working 9 plus hours at my local Target is that people on the Gulf Coast are taking Gustav very seriously!

[dixiebreeze]

Scary TAFB 72 hr. forecast!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[shawn67]

Derek was referring to the hurricane warning over Eastern Cuba last night.

And vacanechaser was referring to some of the silly posts that we're occuring yesterday afternoon regarding Gustav's "imminent" demise. What I saw yesterday afternoon with talk of an open wave and Gustav being no more was not one of S2K's better moments. And what is sadder is that very very few of those people that we're espousing those incorrect opinions were able to man up and say they were wrong.

[weatherguru18]

I think there should be a rule on here about making predictions of landfall before 72 hours. There is no way in hell ANYBODY can make an accurate landfall point within 200 miles of any given point with any reasonable certainty. It's ludicrous to sit here and argue. So the models have been consistant...great. But I'm willing to bet a lot of money that they won't be in their current position in four days from now.

[shah8]

1) Weather sites are getting slammed. Weather.com has become somewhat unresponsive. WU is getting wear and tear as well.

2) Gustav looks to have gone further SW than originally believed. There is an eye-like feature showing now. It *could* be a dryslot, but there are colder tops aproximately around the area...

[StormWarning1]

If Gustav keeps tracking South and West of the NHC forecast points much longer than I think watches and warnings may be needed for the Yucatan Peninsula. At least the Northern portion.
I don't think there are any yet.

[6SpeedTA95]

1) Weather sites are getting slammed. Weather.com has become somewhat unresponsive. WU is getting wear and tear as well.

2) Gustav looks to have gone further SW than originally believed. There is an eye-like feature showing now. It *could* be a dryslot, but there are colder tops aproximately around the area...

I've been watching this "potential" eye for three frames now. It definately looks like a small eye just to the south of the island and it has moved WSW to due W most of the last 5 frames. Another 3 or 4 frames should tell us a lot.

[LSU2001]

Ed,

I caught your post about Vermillion Bay not being on the La. Tx border and even though I know that very well, I decided to do a little checking on google earth and comparing the landfall point from the NHC and from what I can tell the initial landfall point is "not currently" Vermillion But farther east around Terrebonne Bay around Cocodrie moving inland in a westerly direction and the last point of the forecast being slightly inland just above Vermillion Bay moving into the Laf. Area.
What do you think,
Tim