ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Aric Dunn]

Possible eye wall forming:

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
DECENT RADAR BANDING INDICATING CENTER

That's not an eyewall.

No, but a sign of it becoming better organized.

Dolly is not looking better IMHO... only half a storm... warming tops... naked center (no CDO)
She could get her act together... but she's going the other way right now. Obviously.[/quote]

thats actually not the case.. she is showing clear signs of becoming more organized and is doing so pretty fast now.

[Derek Ortt]

Dolly is not looking better IMHO... only half a storm... warming tops... naked center (no CDO)
She could get her act together... but she's going the other way right now. Obviously.
just look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

come on!!! Stop paying attention to single IR snapshots and look at the big picture. Structurally, this is better organized.

Besides, the significant intensification is not supposed to begin until tomorrow anyways

[green eyed girl]

When is the ridge forecast to weaken?

The upper level ridging to the NE of Dolly will begin to gradually erode later today as the longwave trough over the Great Lakes deepens. As this trend occurs, the upper level anticyclone at 300 mb will amplify over the W GOM and Southwest CONUS. With the broad anticyclone in place, conditions will be ideal (as seen now) for further intensification of Dolly, while the height falls to the NE may allow a brief NW movement as Dolly slows and approaches landfall. Later, a turn back toward the WNW around the time of landfall may be plausible as the upper level ridging over the Southwest CONUS expands east at H5.

The process and evolution of the synoptic environment is slowly
commencing now.

Thank you for the detailed explanation. I now understand the reasoning behind it moving back to the WNW eventually.

[txwatcher91]

Dolly is not looking better IMHO... only half a storm... warming tops... naked center (no CDO)
She could get her act together... but she's going the other way right now. Obviously.
just look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

come on!!! Stop paying attention to single IR snapshots and look at the big picture. Structurally, this is better organized.

Besides, the significant intensification is not supposed to begin until tomorrow anyways

Look at visible instead, much more accurate, banding taking place, more convection firing near center. Also remember the southern inflow is being hurt by the Yucatan but will change tomorrow, and we are heading towards DMIN.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Dolly is not looking better IMHO... only half a storm... warming tops... naked center (no CDO)
She could get her act together... but she's going the other way right now. Obviously.
just look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

I have to disagree with you. Maybe convection is not all that organized but the structure is getting much better organized. With out the structure the convection won't matter all that much. Once the structure is organized it will start to refire convection around the center and then its off to the races with nothing in its way to hold it back!

['CaneFreak]

Dolly is not looking better IMHO... only half a storm... warming tops... naked center (no CDO)
She could get her act together... but she's going the other way right now. Obviously.
just look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

come on!!! Stop paying attention to single IR snapshots and look at the big picture. Structurally, this is better organized.

Besides, the significant intensification is not supposed to begin until tomorrow anyways

Bite your tongue. I see it happening within the next six hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Dolly is not looking better IMHO... only half a storm... warming tops... naked center (no CDO)
She could get her act together... but she's going the other way right now. Obviously.
just look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

come on!!! Stop paying attention to single IR snapshots and look at the big picture. Structurally, this is better organized.

Besides, the significant intensification is not supposed to begin until tomorrow anyways

yeah its not supposed to!! but you should know that and the nhc continues to mention that the intensity forecast is uncertain

[jasons2k]

It's obvious Dolly is getting better organized. It is now vertically stacked (or very close) and should go into intensification phase now. As she pulls away from the Yucatan the cutoff inflow will quickly be a non-issue.

I'm watching carefully to see how much she gets tugged to the right - she is at least wobbling right ATTM.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dolly is not looking better IMHO... only half a storm... warming tops... naked center (no CDO)
She could get her act together... but she's going the other way right now. Obviously.
just look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Hahaha...its storm that just got off land and just developed a llc...how do you expect it to look? And besides...convection is building towards the center, convection to the east is being absorbed into the storm and banding is becoming apparent around the center. Give it 6 hours and you will change your mind.

[oyster_reef]

Dolly is not looking better IMHO... only half a storm... warming tops... naked center (no CDO)
She could get her act together... but she's going the other way right now. Obviously.
just look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

come on!!! Stop paying attention to single IR snapshots and look at the big picture. Structurally, this is better organized.

Besides, the significant intensification is not supposed to begin until tomorrow anyways

the potential is there... no doubt.
What I'm saying is at this moment.. I would prefer to be hit by this system right now that i would have 5 hours ago. She has deteriorated (but created a LLC) over the past 5 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Dolly is not looking better IMHO... only half a storm... warming tops... naked center (no CDO)
She could get her act together... but she's going the other way right now. Obviously.
just look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

come on!!! Stop paying attention to single IR snapshots and look at the big picture. Structurally, this is better organized.

Besides, the significant intensification is not supposed to begin until tomorrow anyways

the potential is there... no doubt.
What I'm saying is at this moment.. I would prefer to be hit by this system right now that i would have 5 hours ago. She has deteriorated (but created a LLC) over the past 5 hours.

no deterioration.. this is normal structural changes in a TC when they are about to strengthen

[cheezyWXguy]

Dolly is not looking better IMHO... only half a storm... warming tops... naked center (no CDO)
She could get her act together... but she's going the other way right now. Obviously.
just look for yourself. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

come on!!! Stop paying attention to single IR snapshots and look at the big picture. Structurally, this is better organized.

Besides, the significant intensification is not supposed to begin until tomorrow anyways

the potential is there... no doubt.
What I'm saying is at this moment.. I would prefer to be hit by this system right now that i would have 5 hours ago. She has deteriorated (but created a LLC) over the past 5 hours.

She has not deteriorated...the convection doesnt even look any worse than before...so a few reds became dark oranges...get over it. Theres more convection forming anyway

[RL3AO]

NHC forecast in black with VDM in blue.

[dwg71]

last to vortex messages.

22.1N 89.2W
22.7N 90.2W

.6N and 1.0W

WNW 285-290 or close to that.

[jasons2k]

Noon Email update from Jeff Lindner:

Hurricane Watch is issued for the TX coast from Port O Connor to Brownsville.

Tropical storm watch is issued from the west end of Galveston Island to Port O Connor.

TXDOT has changed highway DMS signs to fuel your gas tanks and fuel consumption in the Houston/Galveston area has surged in the last 12 hours.

Track:

Track guidance has shifted northward on the 06Z and 12Z runs of the GFDL and tropicals. The 1000am NHC advisory has also shifted northward and now shows a landfall across south TX between KBRO and KCRP. It should be noted that the extension of the hurricane watch and tropical storm watch northward are due to the large storm size and potential forecast track error. Dolly will slow greatly in the western Gulf as high pressure over TX weakens.

Intensity:

Recon. reported 56kts in the NE quad. and Dolly is looking very impressive on satellite images. In fact aircraft radar is showing decent banding around the center. All factors appear satisfied for rapid deepening and the NHC and local NWS offices are making it very clear the current forecast for a high end cat 1 may be on the low end. Will have to see how long it takes the inner core to form…but it looks very well organized on sat images.

Impacts:

Per NHC TS wind probability tables indicates a 30-40% chance of TS force winds across Galveston and 40-50% chance of TS force winds across Matagorda Bay with hurricane force conditions south of that. With this in mind and the current TS watch outline area. Will bring TS force winds into the Matagorda Bay area Wednesday afternoon in gusts in squalls and build to sustained 35kts by Wednesday overnight as the hurricane moves toward the coast.

Long period swells of 6-8 feet are already being generated and expect seas to build 16-18 feet offshore and 8-12 feet near shore with coastal flooding onsetting with higher swells. Right now coastal flood problems look greatest from Palacios southward and then High Island eastward where Ekman transport will come into play. Current forecast are for tides to run 1-2’ above normal. Just run SLOSH of high end cat 1 impact on NHC forecast brings 6 foot surge north of the center across the lower TX coast and toward the KCRP area.

Rainfall of 5-10 inches will be common along and to the right of where the center crosses the coast with isolated amounts of 15”. Slow storm motion points to some hefty tropical totals. SW part of area around Matagorda Bay can expect 2-4 inches widespread with isolated amounts to 8” where feeder bands train. Across the rest of the area 1-3” is possible.

NOTE: additional track changes will require significant impact changes.

Preparation Actions:

State SOC is fully operational

HCOEM is activating to Level II at noon today.

Fuel supply teams are moving fuel to the coastal areas in response to TXDOT DMS signage being changed.

Evacuation of barrier islands along the S TX coast is expected to be ordered this afternoon in phase with a predicted landfall of a category 2 hurricane.

At this time, since this is not forecast to be a cat 3, no large scale mass evacuations are going to be ordered, there is really not enough time anyhow.

Residents in the Hurricane Watch area should begin preparations for the impact of a category 2 hurricane within the next 36 hours.

Residents in the TS Watch area should prepare for the impact of TS conditions within the next 36 hours.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

So far the strongest winds recon have found in the south west quad are around 25 kts

['CaneFreak]

So far the strongest winds recon have found in the south west quad are around 25 kts

Due to its direction of movement, that is supposed to be the weakest side anyways. You subtract its forward speed on the west side since it is moving that direction.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

last to vortex messages.

22.1N 89.2W
22.7N 90.2W

.6N and 1.0W

WNW 285-290 or close to that.

Are your calculations taking into account that 1 degree latitude does not = 1 degree longitude in distance on the earth?

Or that longitude lines are not equidistant (they vary distance based on latitude).

I dunno if you are or not, but its far enough out there to matter.

[RL3AO]

You can see the banding all around the center develop in this loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/1kmsrvis_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL042008&starting_image=2008AL04_1KMSRVIS_200807201345.GIF

[dwg71]

So far the strongest winds recon have found in the south west quad are around 25 kts

Due to its direction of movement, that is supposed to be the weakest side anyways. You subtract its forward speed on the west side since it is moving that direction.

Still not any great wind speeds to be found...atm.