ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

rockyman, yep not all that surprising they nudged the track west given the short term deviation and also the fact the GFS has shifted better inline with the other models, though still on the eastern side a little...looking like either a Texas or LA storm right now...

Galvestongirl, that was mentioned last night, hope there isn't a repeat of that sort of hit.

[AJC3]

I dont know if this has been mentioned, but earlier this morning on the television it was mentioned that the "track is earily like the great storm of 1900."

The forecast track looks similar, but up until now, they've been pretty disparate.

[cape_escape]

If you look at this site, it shows Ikes lanfall in Cuba, then pretty much straight west, then a dip south and back North...very strange to me! Is it because it's leaving land that it would jump like that?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

[VeniceInlet]

I dont know if this has been mentioned, but earlier this morning on the television it was mentioned that the "track is earily like the great storm of 1900."

Yeah, it has been mentioned and I'm sure your local media are bringing that up. But the prevailing conditions for storms are always different and nobody really knows yet where this will end up making landfall.

[KWT]

cape_escape, I'm seeing around 275 right now in terms of motion, watch the foward line of the eyewall until the whole center is off center because land sometimes does fool the eyes into thinking there is a motion there when there isn't, well it doesn't fool the pros but most of us aren't pros!

[Sabanic]

rockyman, yep not all that surprising they nudged the track west given the short term deviation and also the fact the GFS has shifted better inline with the other models, though still on the eastern side a little...looking like either a Texas or LA storm right now...

Galvestongirl, that was mentioned last night, hope there isn't a repeat of that sort of hit.

It is still way too early to know what portions of the Gulf Coast will be affected by Ike.

Per the 11AM NHC discussion

[cape_escape]

cape_escape, I'm seeing around 275 right now in terms of motion, watch the foward line of the eyewall until the whole center is off center because land sometimes does fool the eyes into thinking there is a motion there when there isn't, well it doesn't fool the pros but most of us aren't pros!

I was thinking that, but wasn't sure....Thank you KWT!
After 4 years of watching hurricanes, you'd think I would know by now.

[KatDaddy]

I will begin my prelim preparations after work today. This will be picking up loose items and figuring out where to place the larger ones later in the week. Also checking the screw insets again to make sure insects have covered them with mud. I may start pulling the panels out to make sure they are still numbered correctly. Its time to get ready. We have missed so many tropical threats over the past years. We may not be as lucky this time around. Definitley a flash back to Rita.

[gboudx]

gboudx, the idea that it would expand into a very large hurricane wa son the assumption that the core would unwrap overland and therefore 'grow'. However the track has meant that it won't travel over Cuba totally but instead over the Caribbean for a good period of time it appears. Therefore the core will probably stay as it is now, maybe even tighten up a litytle bit if it can continue due west for a little bit longer.

Jeff noted that it is moving more south of the TF points and would spend less time over Cuba. But he also said it would expand into a comparable size as I already posted. Obviously you are free to disagree, but I'm gonna stick with jeff on this one since he does this stuff for a living.

[Texashawk]

The 11 AM NHC forecast track would be the doomsday storm for Galveston.

[Stormcenter]

To those doubting jeff on the windfield expansion, he said on a recent conference call he sees a Katrina/Carla sized storm. But not as big as Gilbert. I didn't realize we had so many experts on this board. We are so blessed.

The NHC makes no mention of it (they normally would) in their 11:00am discussion so I'll
leave it at that.

[KWT]

cape_escape, yeah its ok I thought the exact same thing when I saw the loop!

Sabanic, agreed your right it is indeed too early to know, the thing is its looking more like a western/central gulf of Mexico threat now though given the models, exactly where is still a good 3-4 days away from having a really solid idea of where abouts...

[Stormcenter]

The 11 AM NHC forecast track would be the doomsday storm for Galveston.

The NHC keeps Ike at 100 knots before landfall so that is a positive.

[Derek Ortt]

To those doubting jeff on the windfield expansion, he said on a recent conference call he sees a Katrina/Carla sized storm. But not as big as Gilbert. I didn't realize we had so many experts on this board. We are so blessed.

The NHC makes no mention of it (they normally would) their 11:00am discussion so I'll
leave it at that.

I think you're in denial this time

[Sanibel]

What's becoming more obvious is a cyclone with more potential than Gus is about to move into the Gulf with enough of the season left to become a worry. The slower movement than Gus is what you have to worry about.

[dwg71]

What is the thinking on the errosion of the HP ridge, in day 5-6 that would allow IKE to take a more northern turn as it approached the coast. It seems that most storms coming in from this angle at this time of year, turn more north.

Time will tell,GFS is about 30 minutes from starting to spit out.

[darc87]

Has there been any word as to the tide levels for the SE coast of Florida, more specifically from Ft. Lauderdale southward.

Thanks,
darc87

[bayoubebe]

I will begin my prelim preparations after work today. This will be picking up loose items and figuring out where to place the larger ones later in the week. Also checking the screw insets again to make sure insects have covered them with mud. I may start pulling the panels out to make sure they are still numbered correctly. Its time to get ready. We have missed so many tropical threats over the past years. We may not be as lucky this time around. Definitley a flash back to Rita.

Wise to start getting ready, as things are still a mess from Gustav and low on supply with certain items.
Have you heard anything there as to when your evacuations would begin?

[Stormcenter]

To those doubting jeff on the windfield expansion, he said on a recent conference call he sees a Katrina/Carla sized storm. But not as big as Gilbert. I didn't realize we had so many experts on this board. We are so blessed.

The NHC makes no mention of it (they normally would) their 11:00am discussion so I'll
leave it at that.

I think you're in denial this time

I guess time will tell but again I'm just going by what the NHC says in their discussion at
11:00am.

[vaffie]

To those doubting jeff on the windfield expansion, he said on a recent conference call he sees a Katrina/Carla sized storm. But not as big as Gilbert. I didn't realize we had so many experts on this board. We are so blessed.

The NHC makes no mention of it (they normally would) in their 11:00am discussion so I'll
leave it at that.

The NHC is always conservative on strength. At 72 hours Ike is officially estimated to have tropical storm force winds extending out to 150 nautical miles--this is when the storm has a 95 knot intensity. If that is low, and the storm is stronger--which is now much likelier since it's not going to need a couple of days to get its core back since it's gonna be over the water soon again then the strength and the windfield will be higher. So we could easily be looking at a 200+ nautical mile radius of ts winds. Katrina had 200.