ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[dwg71]

last to vortex messages.

22.1N 89.2W
22.7N 90.2W

.6N and 1.0W

WNW 285-290 or close to that.

Are your calculations taking into account that 1 degree latitude does not = 1 degree longitude in distance on the earth?

Or that longitude lines are not equidistant (they vary distance based on latitude).

I dunno if you are or not, but its far enough out there to matter.

I didnt get out a slide rule, just an estimation 290 seems pretty fair.

NHC says WNW at 18 per 1PM advis.

[cheezyWXguy]

So far the strongest winds recon have found in the south west quad are around 25 kts

usually that is the weakest quadrant of them all.

[cycloneye]

10 AM CDT=22.1N 89.5W

1 PM CDT=22.8N-90.4W

[RL3AO]

Crazy posted this in the NW Carrib/Yucatan obs/preps thread.

http://www.radionetherlands.nl/news/international/5884098/Tropical-storm-Dolly-kills-12-in-Guatemala

Tropical storm Dolly kills 12 in Guatemala
Published: Monday 21 July 2008 11:39 UTC
Last updated: Monday 21 July 2008 13:51 UTC
Tropical storm Dolly has claimed 12 lives in Guatemala. Ten children and their parents died when mudslides triggered by heavy downpours buried their home. Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for the Yucatán Peninsula from the border with Belize to the city of Campeche. Approaching from the Caribbean, Dolly is expected to pound the area in the coming days with heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.

Weather forecasters do not yet know whether Dolly will eventually move into northern Mexico or head for southern Texas. Dolly is the fourth tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

[RL3AO]

[Yankeegirl]

so, if this all plays out as predicted, is the houston area going to be affected and how?

[dwg71]

so, if this all plays out as predicted, is the houston area going to be affected and how?

You might get a day that you dont have to water your yard...

[Aric Dunn]

so, if this all plays out as predicted, is the houston area going to be affected and how?

right now it does not look that she will make it that far north.. but just keep and eye on it..

[Yankeegirl]

you bet i am, but i would like a rain day!!

[HURAKAN]

Dolly continues to improve in organization. The LLC now looks strong and solid.



Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 201345.GIF

[Stormcenter]

so, if this all plays out as predicted, is the houston area going to be affected and how?

right now it does not look that she will make it that far north.. but just keep and eye on it..

The center may not but the effects (rain and some wind) will if everything pans out as predicted.

[Brent]

so, if this all plays out as predicted, is the houston area going to be affected and how?

Some squally weather but probably nothing major.

This is going to be inland tomorrow evening if it doesn't slow down and I also think it's north of the track.

[paintplaye]

Maybe a "bobble" but the center looks to be taking a more NW turn now.

[Stormcenter]

Wow Dolly has definitely taken more of a northerly course during the
past few hours. It is going further north of the projected NHC path...interesting.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Yankeegirl]

well good, i just like to somewhat know what i am getting into for the rest of the week... lol.. you guys have fun tracking, i know i will!

[jabman98]

Dolly is already indirectly affecting the sensible weather in Houston. The normal SE onshore flow is absent, there is a complete absence of the normal puffy cumulus, some of which are usually close to the point of starting to shower by now, clear blue skies, and NWS HGX update says 101ºF (38.3º C) daily record high may be in peril today.

This is very true. The sky looks...different. Puffy cumulus clouds are in short supply, which is unusual for a July day.

Plenty of water on the shelves at my local supermarket, although the guy at the checkout counter reported that virtually every customer was buying water. So I guess people are heeding the warnings.

You might get a day that you dont have to water your yard...

Rain is welcome, just not too much rain accompanied by wind.

I'm intrigued by the high weakening faster than initially expected. Track could move further north?

[stevetampa33614]

Im not sure how dolly amounts to much of anything moving at that speed adn with (still) negative influence from that TUTT

[BobHarlem]

Dolly continues to improve in organization. The LLC now looks strong and solid.



Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 201345.GIF

Check out the south part of the Bay of Campeche (rotation and wind if you can), the TUTT there is really have a negative development effect on Dolly. I doubt Dolly will get going while that's still there, and probably why its center has been more northward.

[Yankeegirl]

i am also intrigued about the ridge weakening a little faster than once thought... and i too think its going to be a little more north than once forecasted. no scientific reasoning, just a thought.. i am thinking a little north of Corpus... who knows...

[cpdaman]

Im not sure how dolly amounts to much of anything moving at that speed adn with (still) negative influence from that TUTT

we almost forgot about the TUTT , i think dolly will be an underachiever, but she does have potential. (same thing my guidance counselor said)