ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Noles2006]

So... it's a little ESE of the 2 p.m. position...

That vortex has dissipated.

Right, I understand that (I didn't mean for it to sound like I thought it had moved ESE, lol)

[StJoe]

Looks to me like she's startring her nw turn

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


I personally think that she is est of her forecast track right now, but who knows?

[Noles2006]

Looks to me like she's startring her nw turn

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

I still don't see any change of movement in the LLC...

[ekal]

UNDERCAST
In aviation, it is an opaque cloud layer viewed from an observation point above the layer. From the ground, it would be considered an overcast.

From weatherdictionary.com

I imagine the cloud cover prevented a visual fix of the center. They must have supplied the VDM position based upon the location of the pressure minimum coupled with radar data.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes, this image confirms it. The center is definitely further ESE.

[Sanibel]

There are 31* waters south of Cuba.

Fay is probably doing a d-min simultaneously with residual land weakening.

The track is close enough to NHC trop points that we should expect gradual refire and reconvecting with a clip of Cuba followed by ramp up south of Cuba.


Got full tank of gas and extra 2 gallon ball (which leaks). Costco was just starting to get busy with people buying water etc. They were taking extra water pallets down from the high racks. My grill propane tank is full. I worry about low pressure and a full tank - but it probably doesn't matter. Tonight I'll eat the frozen sirloin and tomorrow the shrimp from the freezer. Got case of Gatorade and case of water gallons. Already had fresh pack D-cells.

High pressure obvious here with doldrum skies blue top to bottom with very few lazy drifting fair weather clouds. Hot sun.

[cycloneye]

UNDERCAST
In aviation, it is an opaque cloud layer viewed from an observation point above the layer. From the ground, it would be considered an overcast.

From weatherdictionary.com

I imagine the cloud cover prevented a visual fix of the center. They must have supplied the VDM position based upon the location of the pressure minimum coupled with radar data.

Thanks for the explanation about that.

[StJoe]

Yes, this image confirms it. The center is definitely further ESE.

Which means???

[carversteve]

Looks to me like she's startring her nw turn

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


I personally think that she is est of her forecast track right now, but who knows?

Still looks to be moving due west to this untrained and totally unofficial eye!

[marciacubed]

Yes, this image confirms it. The center is definitely further ESE.

Is that a reformation or a SE movement?

[UKane]

I'm sticking with the NHC forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is that a reformation or a SE movement?

Probably a reformation or relocation, definitely not a SE movement.

[NEXRAD]

I looked at the latest visible imagery and it appears to be merely a wobble or reformation of the storm center, which is not at all uncommon with weaker storms. The overall convective mass continues along a west to west-northwest heading.

- Jay

[Derek Ortt]

this confirms my thoughts of utterly chucking the GFDL

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC Best track:Intensity down to 35kts.

AL, 06, 2008081618, , BEST, 0, 191N, 746W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 0,

[MWatkins]

I think it's a reformation/redevelopment of the low center probably caused by the mountians on that peninsula to the south. Not a movement at all, just one of those land intereaction things.

MW

[carversteve]

this confirms my thoughts of utterly chucking the GFDL

Is the GFDL the furthest east of the models?..sorry don't remeber.

[CrazyC83]

35 kt is correct based on Recon data.

[marciacubed]

Will the reformation help or hinder the intensity of the storm?

[ekal]

this confirms my thoughts of utterly chucking the GFDL

Is the GFDL the furthest east of the models?..sorry don't remeber.

Yes. Brushing SE FL, which looks unlikely at this time.