ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[dwg71]

more like 35mph...

[HouTXmetro]

Check out the 48 hr NAM 12Z

http://www.weather.unisys.com/nam/48h/nam_pres_48h.html

Isn't that old?

[artist]

When did Recon find 65 mph winds?

honestly i was just about to edit my post. Someone posted it on a thread in somethingawful. still looking..

steve - they found 65 with Cristobal I believe. Could that be where you saw it? If so easy mistake to make.

[KWT]

dwg71, I think we will see this deepen very rapidly once it gets convection, note even recon said this has good banding at the moment...now when this will occur is another matter!
NHC forecast looking pretty good right now.

[brunota2003]

When did Recon find 65 mph winds?

honestly i was just about to edit my post. Someone posted it on a thread in somethingawful. still looking..

SFMR found 58 knot winds, but flight level was only 33 knots at the time, leading me to believe the reading was bogus...The SFMR was doing the same thing during Cristobal, if you were to believe it, then we had a Category 3 Hurricane sitting off of the NC Coast yesterday.

[dwg71]

dwg71, I think we will see this deepen very rapidly once it gets convection, note even recon said this has good banding at the moment...now when this will occur is another matter!
NHC forecast looking pretty good right now.

It may RI, but at the moment, the lack of convection and the forward speed lead me to believe intensity wont pick up until AM tomorrow. Which could put it less and 24 hours from land fall.

[paintplaye]

dwg71, I think we will see this deepen very rapidly once it gets convection, note even recon said this has good banding at the moment...now when this will occur is another matter!
NHC forecast looking pretty good right now.

It may RI, but at the moment, the lack of convection and the forward speed lead me to believe intensity wont pick up until AM tomorrow. Which could put it less and 24 hours from land fall.

It won't be less than 24 hours. Trust me. You can map it out and everything.

[stevetampa33614]

When did Recon find 65 mph winds?

honestly i was just about to edit my post. Someone posted it on a thread in somethingawful. still looking..

SFMR found 58 knot winds, but flight level was only 33 knots at the time, leading me to believe the reading was bogus...The SFMR was doing the same thing during Cristobal, if you were to believe it, then we had a Category 3 Hurricane sitting off of the NC Coast yesterday.

Ah thanks for clearing that up. I was just posting what was confirmed in another forum. Time to dispute there claim.

[KWT]

dwg71, Hmm its at the EXACT speed the NHC estimated and their forevcast shows probably just under 48hrs for this to strengthen, even if it doesn't nothing for the next 18hrs thats still a full day and many systems have strengthened massivly in that time. I see a good structure and see a reasonable chance of RI IF it can just develop some better convection.

[dwg71]

dwg71, I think we will see this deepen very rapidly once it gets convection, note even recon said this has good banding at the moment...now when this will occur is another matter!
NHC forecast looking pretty good right now.

It may RI, but at the moment, the lack of convection and the forward speed lead me to believe intensity wont pick up until AM tomorrow. Which could put it less and 24 hours from land fall.

It won't be less than 24 hours. Trust me. You can map it out and everything.

By tomorrow AM it could be less than 24 hours. Just my opinion. Wednesday around 8-10AM CST is a possibility.

[Duddy]

I think it's too sprawled out and will not reach moderate Cat 1 strength. It will be lucky to reach Cat 1 at all IMO.

It just looks too much like a bow echo and not a storm.

[Normandy]

Yes dwg71, However you are not taking into account the slowing movement of the system by tommorrow....it is forecasted to slow down some. I really is right on the NHC's track. Landfall around Wed night is a more likely probability.

[paintplaye]

dwg71, I think we will see this deepen very rapidly once it gets convection, note even recon said this has good banding at the moment...now when this will occur is another matter!
NHC forecast looking pretty good right now.

It may RI, but at the moment, the lack of convection and the forward speed lead me to believe intensity wont pick up until AM tomorrow. Which could put it less and 24 hours from land fall.

It won't be less than 24 hours. Trust me. You can map it out and everything.

By tomorrow AM it could be less than 24 hours. Just my opinion. Wednesday around 8-10AM CST is a possibility.[/quote]

Yes i know but even at the speed now 24 hours later it still won't be on land even if it went straight west.

[KWT]

Maybe dwg71 I think personally we'd be looking at about 18-1900hrs your time as the models do really slow this down before the coast so who knows.

Also 24hrs is enough to get this upto a cat-2/3 even if we see no strengthening over the next 18hrs.

Duddy look at the banding, yep its not got great convection and its a big system but get convection over that and youve got a top end TS IMO.

[HouTXmetro]

The convection envelope is almost the width of the enitire GOM. That's impressive

[gatorcane]

Dolly continues to struggle today. Great news for those in the Western GOM. Latest SAT pic shows her center seems to be almost fully exposed on the East side as dry air is continuing to inhibit her development. Convection is also waning some at least the coverage of cold cloud tops is decreasing as we hit DMIN.

Let's hope this all continues. If she can only move West on the left side of the guidance envelope it would be even better news as she will be inland in Mexico in less than 24 hours at her current speed.

[TexWx]

Yes, looking fairly rough
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

oh yeah and west.

but if it stayed like this, I wouldn't mind at all if it came towards Houston.

[Brent]

Dolly continues to struggle today. Great news for those in the Western GOM. Latest SAT pic shows her center seems to be almost fully exposed on the East side as dry air is continuing to inhibit her development. Convection is also waning some at least the coverage of cold cloud tops is decreasing as we hit DMIN.

Let's hope this all continues. If she can only move West on the left side of the guidance envelope it would be even better news as she will be inland south of Texas in less than 24 hours at her current speed.

Agree. It looks more disorganized than it has all day.

[KWT]

gatorcane, I see little dry air intrusion, that not the problem is just the system hasn't wrapped up very well just yet...remember this may not have had a LLC about 9hrs ago, give this another 12hrs and if it still looks like this then you may well have a good point.

[WmE]

Maybe dwg71 I think personally we'd be looking at about 18-1900hrs your time as the models do really slow this down before the coast so who knows.

Also 24hrs is enough to get this upto a cat-2/3 even if we see no strengthening over the next 18hrs.

From weak TS to Cat2/3 in just 6 hours? I honestly don't think this will/can happen!