ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

['CaneFreak]

If I had to guess the current heading it'd be close to 285, maybe 290, its close to a WNW track though and not westerly like some seem to believe.

Canrfreak, I see outflow boundary coming out of the southern side in the last couple of hours but convection has held so far.

Its outflow...not an outflow boundary...they are two totally different things...look it up and let me know....

['CaneFreak]

I live in florida. I know what an outflow boundrie is.

Obviously you don't if you said this thing is spitting out outflow boundaries. It has excellent outflow but it is not spitting out outflow boundaries.

[tpr1967]

OK.

[tpr1967]

I live in florida. I know what an outflow boundrie is.

Obviously you don't if you said this thing is spitting out outflow boundaries. It has excellent outflow but it is not spitting out outflow boundaries.

OK.

[KWT]

GeneratorPower, yep its a very large storm at the moment in regards to the circulation, I think we will see a very large area of TS warnings, dragging in storms from the other side of the Yucatan!

Sorry I know what outflow boundaries and whats coming out at low levels aout of the southern storms is outflow boundary I'm sure of that!

[Ed Mahmoud]

After some missing a few early predictions on 94L, (ie, 3 calls for a TD on 4 days when it wasn't) I have been on the right path, so far, for almost 2 days. And I still think NHC track and intensity are darned close, I may be a tad farther South than the official landfall, but about the same intensity, or maybe just a touch lower than the official intensity. My unofficial prediction, which hasn't been changed since yesterday, sees hurricane conditions in coastal communities near Brownsville, and possibly as far North as Corpus Christi. Hurricane Claudette, only a Cat 1, produced storm surge damage on Galveston Island, far from the landfall point.

I continue to see a satellite track of barely North of due West, which increases my confidence of a South of the Border landfall. (But not by much, which is why possibly all of Padre Island will experience sustained hurricane conditions).

My forecast is unofficial, and I am an amateur, and it is prudent to follow forecasts, advice and possible evacuation orders from the NHC, local NWS offices and state and local EMS.

[Brent]

[CajunMama]

The tone of a certain poster is not appreciated. Why can't something be explained without a sarcastic reply? And we wonder why some members are hesitant to post.

[RL3AO]

This is pretty impressive. And scary.



TD Eight-E is now TS Genevieve.

[cycloneye]

For those who were debating the movemt here is the 4 PM CDT movement advisory.

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

[galvestontx13]

The tone of a certain poster is not appreciated. Why can't something be explained without a sarcastic reply? And we wonder why some members are hesitant to post.

PM feature is handy.....

[HarlequinBoy]

So we're looking at a little under 48 hours until landfall according to the NHC.

[TexasStorm]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my very, very unprofessional opinion/observation... but this storm is done. It is moving way too fast and will encounter land again by tomorrow morning.

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble that thought it would get cane status before it hit the states.

[weatherguru18]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my very, very unprofessional opinion/observation... but this storm is done. It is moving way too fast and will encounter land again by tomorrow morning.

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble that thought it would get cane status before it hit the states.

Well that was kind of my sentiments earlier. This storm is screaming across the gulf. It appeared that an outflow boundary came out of the system not long ago. This is not indicative of a developing system.

[HURAKAN]

It has 48 hours, not 12.

[Stormcenter]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my very, very unprofessional opinion/observation... but this storm is done. It is moving way too fast and will encounter land again by tomorrow morning.

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble that thought it would get cane status before it hit the states.

Well that was kind of my sentiments earlier. This storm is screaming across the gulf. It appeared that an outflow boundary came out of the system not long ago. This is not indicative of a developing system.

Well I guess we should just close this thread then since you guys have it all figured out now.

['CaneFreak]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my very, very unprofessional opinion/observation... but this storm is done. It is moving way too fast and will encounter land again by tomorrow morning.

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble that thought it would get cane status before it hit the states.

Well that was kind of my sentiments earlier. This storm is screaming across the gulf. It appeared that an outflow boundary came out of the system not long ago. This is not indicative of a developing system.

Thats funny. Lets see what the NHC says in the discussion. I am being sarcastic ok?

[weatherguru18]

Thanks for the commentary Stormcenter, though I didn't aske for it. Thanks.

[KWT]

Yep just because its moving at 16kts now does not mean it won't slow down, indeed all the models are showing this system slowing down, heck even if it kept this rate up it wouldn't be in land for at least another 18hrs....and lets not forget the GFDL which has this down to aobut 5-7kts by 30hrs time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Need to really cruise to hit land again by tomorrow morning...