ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Jason_B]

so I should be safe here on the se coast of fl?

No, if anything with this trend eastward this thing might cut right across South Florida.

[capepoint]

NOT A REAL FORECAST BY NOT A REAL FORECASTER....
Shift a little east. Over central to east cuba, southern fl exiting into atl near palm beach then off to hatteras.

just a gut feeling..not even going to try to back it up.

[ronjon]

According to that graphic, Luis, the new center is slightly west and south of the forecast point.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Even on the current official track much of south florida
and even parts of the southeast coast would get
tropical storm force to possibly hurricane force gusts.
The nasty weather and tropical storm force winds extend out
well away from the center.

[Nimbus]

With such a disrupted LLC my thinking was it might decide to recenter over the convection. That reasoning might suggest that it tracks over the water between Jamaica and Cuba.

[Vortex]

2015 utc imagery for the first time indicated firing right over the center.

[jinftl]

a west coast landfall could still very well mean tropical storm conditions on the se coast of the state....i think the wind field will be quite a bit larger than charley's was....

so I should be safe here on the se coast of fl?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The 11 AM track would bring tropical storm force
winds gusting of 50-70 mph to the ENTIRE peninsula,
BOTH east and west coasts, so east coasters should
not think that they will get no impacts if this runs up
the west coast. The winds extend out 100+ miles from the center.

[gatorcane]

NOT A REAL FORECAST BY NOT A REAL FORECASTER....
Shift a little east. Over central to east cuba, southern fl exiting into atl near palm beach then off to hatteras.

just a gut feeling..not even going to try to back it up.

wouldn't be great if it misses FL to the East all together and misses the Carolinas?

[bahamaswx]

That northern-most band has been dumping rain here for the past 90minutes. Thank you Fay.

[HURAKAN]

Tonight should be interesting.

[cycloneye]

Pic at 4:25 PM EDT:

[gatorcane]

Fay unlike Ernesto though seems to be wasting no time trying to get its act together, hopefully she will not be over those warm SSTs for long.

[PTPatrick]

NAM 66 hur point..landfall around Naples/Marco Island early Tuesday Morning....Compared to Off the coast of Palm Beach on the 12z run...that is roughly a 150 jump in one model run. Also...NAM in general shows a pretty nasty storm down there too. Again, I only bring you all this as it either means NAM is just catching up to the other models...or we may see a shift back west on this evening's models. The center reformation SW of haiti lends some possbility to this.

[capepoint]

Gator that would be the best case as far as im concerned. weak sys lots of rain, highest winds remain offshore except southern fla and with weak Cat 1/Strong TS even there winds would be no real problem.

[Derek Ortt]

so I should be safe here on the se coast of fl?

No, if anything with this trend eastward this thing might cut right across South Florida.

what trend eastward? The only models that have this hitting Miami are already wrong!

[TCmet]

With such a disrupted LLC my thinking was it might decide to recenter over the convection. That reasoning might suggest that it tracks over the water between Jamaica and Cuba.

This is close to what I'm thinking. plus, convection should stay more consistent in the southern semicircle as it approaches Cuba with land to the north.

[SkeetoBite]

1. Sanibel Island is south of the 72hr plot, right under the Cape Coral label and left of the Fort Myers label
2. Presumably, there will be a decent size eye, meaning there will be a single landfall around Venice and then scraping over Tampa bay. If this track verifies, the entire bay will be within the eye
3. Charley came ashore at an island called Cayo Costa (just above the Cape Coral label on the map), tens of miles north of Sanibel and tens of miles south of Venice
4. The forecast wind field is included so folks don’t use the line as a guide. We drop the line 24 hours prior to landfall
5. This system is forecast to be pretty large (based on the wind field, hence the statements that the entire area could be affected by TS strength winds

ALWAYS REFER TO OFFICIAL DATA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. TAKE PROMPT ACTION WHEN NOTICES ARE ISSUED FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

[Sanibel]

Sanibel is the little island that yellow line first hits in Florida. About 2 miles east of my roof.

[Steve]

Skeetobite is easily the best map guy on the internet.

Steve