ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[lrak]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my very, very unprofessional opinion/observation... but this storm is done. It is moving way too fast and will encounter land again by tomorrow morning.

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble that thought it would get cane status before it hit the states.

OMG, best one so far this year

[Gigsley]

Well this is what they have to say now.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 212100
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

THE STRUCTURE OF DOLLY APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING VERY GRADUAL
CHANGES. THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
TODAY...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW MUCH
SMALLER...AS DETERMINED FROM STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
DATA THAT RECENTLY INDICATED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 45 KT ABOUT
45 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DOLLY IS HEADED TOWARD A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND IT IS BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT SEEMS TO BE TAKING A WHILE...HOWEVER...FOR AN INNER
CORE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...SO IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
DOLLY WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THE INTENSITY
MODELS FORECAST AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND UNTIL FINAL
LANDFALL...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING.
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST ABOUT 65 KT IN 48 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 75-80 KT. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS SO CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGAIN LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER GFDL SOLUTION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT KNOWING EXACTLY HOW FAST DOLLY
WILL REACH THE COAST. IF IT MAKES LANDFALL SOONER THAN THE
OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATES...IT MIGHT RUN OUT OF TIME TO REACH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY. BUT IF THE OPPOSITE
OCCURS...DOLLY WOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER THE WARM WATERS.

DOLLY CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
REMAINS 300/16. WHILE IT IS A LITTLE UNNERVING TO OBSERVE THIS FAST
MOTION AND FORECAST THE CENTER OF DOLLY TO TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO
REACH THE COAST...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
FORWARD SPEED WILL BE ABOUT HALF ITS CURRENT VALUE BY TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE SLOW-DOWN...SO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...IS RIGHT
IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODELS DO NOT GO INLAND IN
EXACTLY THE SAME LOCATIONS...HOWEVER. THE GFS AND UKMET FORECAST
DOLLY TO CROSS THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFDL
AND HWRF TRACKS GO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NWS HURRICANE MODELS...THE GFDL AND HWRF.
THIS NEW TRACK IS NOT MEANINGFULLY DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...EXCEPT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER. IT IS AGAIN IMPORTANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT...WITH RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION IMPLIED
BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 23.1N 91.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 93.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 24.9N 94.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 25.8N 96.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 26.4N 97.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Stormcenter]

Thanks for the commentary Stormcenter, though I didn't aske for it. Thanks.

Just adding a little humor....nothing personal.

[RL3AO]

This says it all I think.

"NHC issuing advisories on TS CRISTOBAL, TS DOLLY, TS FAUSTO and TS GENEVIEVE"

They've also stopped advisories on Elida and Bertha in the past 36 hours.

[cycloneye]

There was talk of dry air in this thread but in the 4 PM CDT discussion,there was any mention.

[Normandy]

Ya Ed, it would need a to be running at a good 35-40 mph, almost faster than the winds it has right now, to hit by tomorrow morning (What I am trying to get at is that that won't happen). Meanwhile, looks like Dolly is starting a convective burst near her center.

Here I will make a list of things that are not happening with this system (that any pro met and the NHC discos will verify)...

1. No dry air is impacting the system.
2. The system is not moving west.
3. The system is not making landfall tomorrow.
4. The system is not a tropical wave.
5. The system is not weakening.

['CaneFreak]

How about that dry air and them outflow boundaries? I am done with Storm2k for this day. I tried to tell you but you didn't listen. Ya'll have a nice rest of the day.

[KWT]

Well the NHC sums it up well, Dolly does seem to be taking a while to get its inner core sorted out but it has got some pretty good conditions aloft so if it can sort that out then no reason why this can't strengthen pretty readily. Obviously undertainty with the foward speed and how much time it has but we will see.

Canefreak....it HAS been spitting out a few outflow boundaries on its southern flank...watch between 20.5-21N/ 90-92W in the last couple of hours on this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The record shows that there has not been a cat5 landfall on texas in the records of 150 years. A few come very "close" you could pull those up in call me wrong. But the waters are not deep to support a Wilma, Katrina, Rita at here peak. Yes the water is very very hot, but this is the reason why the TCHP is not nearly that of the east-centeral gulf.

As for this system it is to broad to come together very fast, so don't expect much development intil it can form a centeral core. That will take intil at least to tomarrow morning. After that we have to watch the set up. If things pull together fast then 48 hours should be enough to pull together a cat2, and possiblity a little stronger. If not then a cat1 seems to be a good forecast. Believe it or not there is even a chance for this to be a strong tropical storm or "weak" hurricane at landfall. Yes any hurricane can cause damage in death but if you think about not nearly what a cat2, cat3 can do.

I think it will also landfall near where Caudette 2003, possible slightly more north.

[weatherguru18]

Man, there is some pretty good subsidence out ahead of the storm. Here in College Station, we are at 101 degrees.

Stormcenter, sorry to snap. Things are a bit stressful at work today. (Though this is what I live for)

[cycloneye]

[Stratosphere747]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I think it will also landfall near where Caudette 2003, possible slightly more north.

So N or Matagorda/Palacios?

Sure about that?

[dwg71]

Ya Ed, it would need a to be running at a good 35-40 mph, almost faster than the winds it has right now, to hit by tomorrow morning (What I am trying to get at is that that won't happen). Meanwhile, looks like Dolly is starting a convective burst near her center.

Here I will make a list of things that are not happening with this system (that any pro met and the NHC discos will verify)...

1. No dry air is impacting the system.
2. The system is not moving west.
3. The system is not making landfall tomorrow.
4. The system is not a tropical wave.
5. The system is not weakening.

Here is also what is not happening
1. Great moisture pocket.
2. They system is not moving northwest.
3. The system will not be over water in 60 hours.
4. The system is not a hurricane.
5. The system is not strengthening.

My attempt at humor, NHC has good handle on it. I think it will be 10AM further south than brownsville, maybe 75-100 miles. Just my guess.

[cooter]

The met here in Dallas said that dry air is affecting the storm and that it is heading west/NW but more west. I am confused on what this thing is gonna do. I have family in the Galveston area and they are wondering what to do. Anyone have any insight? Anyone have some of the wave heights in the Gulf at this time?

[weatherguru18]

Our in house model brings it in north of Corpus by just a little bit. Interesting...not saying I believe it.

[KWT]

that track looks very close to Bro. and any south shift would put them right in the eyewall.

Matt, I agree probably looking at cat-1 now unless this bombs under the good conditions progged however the set-up is there that if it can get 24hrs over good conditions we could get a cat-2 out of this. Its just a waiting game to see what the inner core does.

Track all depends on a slight bend to the NW in about 24hrs time...FWIW it may be better for this to come in a little further north because there isn't much in the way of population further north of where its progged to come in, if it comes in south there is a lot of population around the border regions.

[ColdFusion]

Ya Ed, it would need a to be running at a good 35-40 mph, almost faster than the winds it has right now, to hit by tomorrow morning (What I am trying to get at is that that won't happen). Meanwhile, looks like Dolly is starting a convective burst near her center.

Here I will make a list of things that are not happening with this system (that any pro met and the NHC discos will verify)...

1. No dry air is impacting the system.
2. The system is not moving west.
3. The system is not making landfall tomorrow.
4. The system is not a tropical wave.
5. The system is not weakening.

Amen.

[dwg71]

The met here in Dallas said that dry air is affecting the storm and that it is heading west/NW but more west. I am confused on what this thing is gonna do. I have family in the Galveston area and they are wondering what to do. Anyone have any insight? Anyone have some of the wave heights in the Gulf at this time?

At this point Galveston is in the clear. Give it 24 hours or so to be sure. I would not make any plans other than your normal "its hurricane season" plan.

I'm hoping for rain here in houston, not likely to see much though.

[sunny]

The record shows that there has not been a cat5 landfall on texas in the records of 150 years. A few come very "close" you could pull those up in call me wrong. But the waters are not deep to support a Wilma, Katrina, Rita at here peak. Yes the water is very very hot, but this is the reason why the TCHP is not nearly that of the east-centeral gulf.

It doesn't have to be a Cat 5 to be cataclysmic. The 1900 Galveston Storm showed that. Hurricane Allen in the 80's also did a pretty good job.

[paintplaye]

The met here in Dallas said that dry air is affecting the storm and that it is heading west/NW but more west. I am confused on what this thing is gonna do. I have family in the Galveston area and they are wondering what to do. Anyone have any insight? Anyone have some of the wave heights in the Gulf at this time?

At this point Galveston is in the clear. Give it 24 hours or so to be sure. I would not make any plans other than your normal "its hurricane season" plan.

I'm hoping for rain here in houston, not likely to see much though.

I never say we are clear until it actually makes landfall. You never know what a storm will do.